California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Holmes]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

I hate to be super simplistic but no. This is California. Both nominees are generic as hell. And the general will have presidential turnout.

[oldtimer]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

The best he can do is get over 40%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

I hate to be super simplistic but no. This is California. Both nominees are generic as hell. And the general will have presidential turnout.

I agree the odds are super, super thin and even Hogan has significantly better chances of winning his race.

[Spectator]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

I hate to be super simplistic but no. This is California. Both nominees are generic as hell. And the general will have presidential turnout.

I agree the odds are super, super thin and even Hogan has significantly better chances of winning his race.

The odds are zero. This is California where the last Republican to win statewide (not even for Senate) was arguably the biggest movie star at the time.

[Roll Roons]

California once again slow in counting? Seems like not even 50% are in. Honestly, this is kind of sad for a first world country and its biggest state.

Whild I didn't expect Porter to advance to November, she performed worse than I thought.

We have a very inclusive voting system that allows peoples votes to be counted securely. I think that is more important than getting instantaneous results for the media.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Ease of voting and ballot security don’t need to be mutually exclusive with counting speed.

A day or two is one thing. 2-3 weeks should never be acceptable.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think if Garvey plays his cards right there may be an opening for him to win the special election. Schiff is guaranteed the 6 year Senate seat, but the 1-2 month one I think Garvey has a very small window of oppurtunity for. He is doing 5 points better in the special election, and is likely more popular than Schiff in the state politics aside. If he can succesfully make the case, enough people might be fine with a symbolic R Senator for 2 months before Schiff takes over for the rest of 6 years. It's a meaningless race though but it's not like Garvey has anything better to do.

LOL no. The partisan breakdown in the two Senate races is virtually identical. It appears as if a significant number of Schiff voters for the full term split the baby and voted for Porter or Lee as a goodbye gift in the special while on the Republican side there were only 2 Republicans in the special instead of the 10 or so for the full term.

[Holmes]

I've had a few people even ask me why there were two Senate races with the same people on the ballot, and they're consistent voters. The general will have more "low info" voters compared to last night's primary that I expect will vote for the same person in both match-ups, so I don't expect much of a discrepancy in the results for the special and the full term.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I've had a few people even ask me why there were two Senate races with the same people on the ballot, and they're consistent voters. The general will have more "low info" voters compared to last night's primary that I expect will vote for the same person in both match-ups, so I don't expect much of a discrepancy in the results for the special and the full term.

TBH, it’s pretty ridiculous that there’s two in this case. I get it if it’s two or four years, but a two month term is kind of a waste of time for an election.

[Aurelius2]

Based on the discrepancy between special and general results, I suspect a few percent of voters were treating the special election as a "2nd choice" box as if it were some sort of RCV thing.

[Lief 🗽]

Good riddance to this sore loser trash.
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765513523050791023?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

[Roll Roons]

I'm glad this race was early in the cycle bc the discourse was kind of becoming unbearable. Is there evidence really that Schiff is so much more conservative? He just seems like a normie Dem at this point. I probably would've voted for Porter (though have no issues with Schiff; Lee was just too out there with her policies), but Porter really did run a terrible campaign.

Yeah, MA 2020 was awful in part because the primary was all the way in September. It is nice that this race is effectively over now.

[kwabbit]

Based on the discrepancy between special and general results, I suspect a few percent of voters were treating the special election as a "2nd choice" box as if it were some sort of RCV thing.

There were also just way less candidates in the special that had to be allocated to a second
candidate. The GOP isn't doing better in the special despite Garvey getting a higher percentage, the D-R margin is actually a point worse. 10-15% of Schiff voters are choosing Lee and Porter as second choices. For Lee that makes sense given her age.

[Aurelius2]

Good riddance to this sore loser trash.
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765513523050791023?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/1765555676644811197

Thank you Katie!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I've had a few people even ask me why there were two Senate races with the same people on the ballot, and they're consistent voters. The general will have more "low info" voters compared to last night's primary that I expect will vote for the same person in both match-ups, so I don't expect much of a discrepancy in the results for the special and the full term.

TBH, it’s pretty ridiculous that there’s two in this case. I get it if it’s two or four years, but a two month term is kind of a waste of time for an election.

I had thought that usually they'd just combine the elections for that 2 month special term, but California does not. However, I think if someone got a majority in the special, they'd be seated soon. Not certain about that though.

[rbt48]

California once again slow in counting? Seems like not even 50% are in. Honestly, this is kind of sad for a first world country and its biggest state.

Whild I didn't expect Porter to advance to November, she performed worse than I thought.

We have a very inclusive voting system that allows peoples votes to be counted securely. I think that is more important than getting instantaneous results for the media.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Ease of voting and ballot security don’t need to be mutually exclusive with counting speed.

A day or two is one thing. 2-3 weeks should never be acceptable.

I totally agree.  CA should be embarrassed at how slowly they could ballots.  Compare this to the United Kingdom where election results are final the next morning.

[DrScholl]

Good riddance to this sore loser trash.
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765513523050791023?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/1765555676644811197

Thank you Katie!

Not that dirty, stringy haired girl thinking they are going to pick up Porter's seat. Irvine has shifted too far left for that to happen.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Good riddance to this sore loser trash.
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765513523050791023?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/1765555676644811197

Thank you Katie!

Not that dirty, stringy haired girl thinking they are going to pick up Porter's seat. Irvine has shifted too far left for that to happen.

Yeah, this was my instinct as well. Porter will be replaced by a better Democrat, so...thank you, Katie.

[Agafin]

Can someone tell me what is the difference between the special blanket primary and the regular blanket primary? I'm seeing different sets of results depending on the website and it's confusing the hell out of me. I thought there was only one senate election?

Edit: nvm, I should've read the comments above.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good riddance to this sore loser trash.
https://twitter.com/katieporteroc/status/1765513523050791023?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6...

Ill worded statement that makes her sound like a sore loser. It's always cheap to come after "the establishment", but in the end, well more people, including ordinary folks, voted for Adam Schiff. They're the establishment now? Well, if I'm part of it by supporting Schiff as a result of his congressional career so far, then so be it.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1765546277071429744?s=20

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Elex_Michaelson/status/1765546277071429744?s=20

Disappointing, though I assume they just wait for all votes to be counted. As embarrassing as it is the counting takes so long.

That said, they deserved to lose at this stage. We certainly don't need to establish the Trump precedent in the Dem party that we no longer accept defeats anymore. That's just a huge middle finger to the voters of the winning candidate.

[Agafin]

Western US states just can't count huh, I mean  what the hell? Florida has better turnout than CA but processes 95%+ of its votes within 2 to 3 hours.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

The fallout from this primary has been so aggravating. Porter's rhetoric, the online left's insistence that Schiff is some centrist, just the general childish behavior of all involved...makes me really glad I don't live in CA.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I've had a few people even ask me why there were two Senate races with the same people on the ballot, and they're consistent voters. The general will have more "low info" voters compared to last night's primary that I expect will vote for the same person in both match-ups, so I don't expect much of a discrepancy in the results for the special and the full term.

TBH, it’s pretty ridiculous that there’s two in this case. I get it if it’s two or four years, but a two month term is kind of a waste of time for an election.

I had thought that usually they'd just combine the elections for that 2 month special term.

I think you would need a constitutional amendment to do that. Effectively the issue is you need to have separate elections to elect people to separate Congresses.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I do think Schiff played dirty in the primary but I don't see the point of Porter going all scorched earth now. She's young and if things pan out right she should have an opening to come back to the House soon enough, but antagonizing the Dem establishment so directly could make things harder for her going forward. And yeah, at the end of the day Schiff will probably be a fine Senator and a clear improvement over Feinstein.