California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Greedo punched first]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

[Oryxslayer]

Butler is being sworn in to finish the term.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/meridak/status/1709212656136081841?t=PwsRJFMyNTk1JtupLMhqwg&...

This tells me that she is not running,  and Newsom picked a DC insider to do a DC job for a few months. This is because filing deadlines are fast approaching for the March primary.  She is a hypothetical candidate with no name recognition, already-uncovered potential election weaknesses,  and all opponents have lots of money in a expensive state where millions of voters need to be in your corner to win. If she was running, it would have to start now, and hard. Delay in this situation is the same as no.

The Black community has already lined up behind Barbara Lee. Labor has also already began picking its sides. Progressives will hate her work for Uber and Lyft and establishmentarians are already behind Schiff. She seems like a smart politico and probably sees the tea leaves as plain as day: at best she will just keep another Black woman from a fair shot at the Senate. I don’t see how she breaks out of the top 2 without a massive infusion of cash, which also leaves her vulnerable.

People here seem to forget this is a primary electorate that gave Bernie and Warren a combined 60% of the vote too. I wouldn’t assume voters are interested in a more moderate, corporate friendly Black woman. And those that are will be enamored by MSNBC darling Adam Schiff. Sen. Butler probably doesn’t have many viable paths to get re-elected without veering to the left or going full scorched earth on the other progressives, which carries its own risks.

Did you mean to reply to patzer’s post?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ReshadHudson/status/1708881648786329734
https://twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/1708954826259009746

https://twitter.com/coribush/status/1709213995817681204https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1709291604215767130

[Greedo punched first]

What happens if Butler runs?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

What happens if Butler runs?

She probably won't make the top 2 if she does, but I do think the candidate who benefits the most from her running would be Porter.

[Greedo punched first]

Where does this "Lee is a lock to make it past the primary" thing come from despite trailing in the polls and barely raising any funds?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1709349781196157117

[Greedo punched first]

McCarthy would make it past the primary if he runs for Senate.

[patzer]

What happens if Butler runs?

She probably won't make the top 2 if she does, but I do think the candidate who benefits the most from her running would be Porter.

When was the last time an incumbent senator failed to even make the top 2 in the primary?
Not sure why people think Butler's such an unusually poor candidate as to achieve such a feat.

[All Along The Watchtower]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

Irrelevant at this stage.

And what does a small city in Vermont have to do with the East Bay cities of Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, Alameda, Albany, Emeryville, and Piedmont?

[Greedo punched first]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

Irrelevant at this stage.

I think you’d still believe that even if Lee polls poorly in late February of 2024. If Schiff, Butler, or Porter wins, you believe the incumbent will be successfully primaried out for being “too conservative”.

[All Along The Watchtower]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

Irrelevant at this stage.

I think you’d still believe that even if Lee polls poorly in late February of 2024

Whatever you say.

[Greedo punched first]

California isn't Brattleboro, Vermont. Lee continues to poll poorly.

Irrelevant at this stage.

I think you’d still believe that even if Lee polls poorly in late February of 2024

Whatever you say.

Will you change your mind if the polls stay the same in February?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1709349781196157117

He gets single digits, comes in like fifth, and has an embarrassing end to his career? Not that interesting of a scenario.

[patzer]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1709349781196157117

He gets single digits, comes in like fifth, and has an embarrassing end to his career? Not that interesting of a scenario.

No other relevant Republican is going to bother entering the race so he'd definitely get at least 20% in the primary and into the final two. Not that it matters of course given the chance of winning the runoff is nil.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1709349781196157117

He gets single digits, comes in like fifth, and has an embarrassing end to his career? Not that interesting of a scenario.

No other relevant Republican is going to bother entering the race so he'd definitely get at least 20% in the primary and into the final two. Not that it matters of course given the chance of winning the runoff is nil.

There are several Republicans already in the race, but the point is still true. He can consolidate enough to to make the primary de facto into the general. It would be an embarrassing defeat to finish his career, cause his prominence probably leads to further underperformance.

The only, and I repeat only, reason this might happen is cause McCarty is good at fundraising. And running as a senate candidate allows him to get more money and then funnel in to the 7 frontline CA Republicans.

[Greedo punched first]

Arcata is different from Berkeley. Berkeley might vote for the local candidate with the most name recognition and fundraising. Arcata always votes for the furthest left candidate no matter what.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

[brucejoel99]

https://rollcall.com/2023/10/08/lee-porter-schiff-face-off-in-california-senate-forum/

All of the candidates support legislation that would raise the federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 hourly rate to $17 by 2028.

But is that high enough, especially in a high-cost state such as California? All three candidates said no.

Schiff said his father earned $18,000 a year as a traveling salesman and that was enough for the family to afford a home. “I want people to be able to afford good, safe housing, and we’re not going to get it at a minimum wage,” he said. “What we need is really a livable wage that will vary from place to place. So states should have flexibility but there ought to be a minimum and for health care workers, I support more than $25.”

Lee said $20 per hour should be the floor. Anything less is “unacceptable anywhere in the United States, especially in California.” Later, when pressed to provide a specific number, Lee said the minimum wage should be $50 per hour.

Porter noted that corporate profits have ballooned in recent years. “We have a Washington that is consistently putting the interests of big corporations ahead of the interests of workers and families,” she said. Porter said she backs a $20 per hour federal minimum wage, and $25 in California, and would tie future rate increases to inflation.

[Sir Mohamed]

Very serious proposal by a canididate that's definitly got a good shot at winning according to all the "real" california politics understanders in this thread.

LOL, why not $100?

That said, I believe even $25 is unrealistic. It would be an improvement to at least go to $15 or $17. Latter is what Sanders called for.

[Oryxslayer]

https://rollcall.com/2023/10/08/lee-porter-schiff-face-off-in-california-senate-forum/

All of the candidates support legislation that would raise the federal minimum wage from the current $7.25 hourly rate to $17 by 2028.

But is that high enough, especially in a high-cost state such as California? All three candidates said no.

Schiff said his father earned $18,000 a year as a traveling salesman and that was enough for the family to afford a home. “I want people to be able to afford good, safe housing, and we’re not going to get it at a minimum wage,” he said. “What we need is really a livable wage that will vary from place to place. So states should have flexibility but there ought to be a minimum and for health care workers, I support more than $25.”

Lee said $20 per hour should be the floor. Anything less is “unacceptable anywhere in the United States, especially in California.” Later, when pressed to provide a specific number, Lee said the minimum wage should be $50 per hour.

Porter noted that corporate profits have ballooned in recent years. “We have a Washington that is consistently putting the interests of big corporations ahead of the interests of workers and families,” she said. Porter said she backs a $20 per hour federal minimum wage, and $25 in California, and would tie future rate increases to inflation.

All these guys are justifying throwing these numbers around cause of the housing crisis.  But it hypothetically won't increase supply, just demand and therefore expenses since more people would be in the competition for purchasing. If a candidate really wants to win the youth vote,  just promise to support any measure that would facilitate the ease of upzoning and construction.  If there is a legitimate way Lee catches fire, it's promising to fix the supply side, since the other two candidates likely can't afford to alienate NIMBY suburbanites until the general.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If there was any chance of Lee winning the primary, it's over now. Pro Palestinian dems are going to get annihilated in primaries

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If there was any chance of Lee winning the primary, it's over now. Pro Palestinian dems are going to get annihilated in primaries

That's why we have ALLRED, Alsobrooks and Blunt Rochester, Porter is gonna win anyways.

[Zedonathin2020]

Lol, $50.00 would ruin small businesses. And for once the GOP wouldn’t be lying about it