TX-SEN 2024 megathread: The Hunt for the Zodiac Killer

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I sincerely doubt that Ted Cruz of all people is gonna outrun Trump

He won’t. He’s probably the safest bet of any Republican Senator to underperform.

Unfortunately, that's likely far from enough to even make him not well-favored for re-election. But your post here is intuitively correct to me.

All it would take is Biden to lose Texas by around 3% or so, and I think that would be enough for someone like Scott Kelly or any random Democrat veteran to topple Cruz. I think in a Biden v. Trump rematch, -3% is well within the range of likely outcomes.

I don’t think the accelerating trends in DFW and Austin are showing any signs of stopping. Houston is the big wild card.

I'm not sure how Cruz will run behind Trump much in the suburbs. What kind of suburbanite in 2024 no less, will be able to stomach voting Trump again but Ted Cruz is a bridge too far? There is a lot of contrast between Cruz and Abbott in 2018 or Trump and Cornyn in 2020. Between Trump and Cruz, I don't see the logic behind significant ticket splitting in the suburban counties. Maybe in the RGV Cruz underperforms Trump but that won't change the end result unless Trump wins the state by like <1%. I think if DeSantis is the nominee though, Cruz would probably run quite a bit behind him, but DeSantis would win the state by a larger margin than Trump so Cruz probably still survives.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

D's are targeting MO and FL, TX isn't that much concerned just like D's are triaging LA and targeting MS and KY Gov

MS and TX Senate are 3rf tier

Tier 1 OH, MT and WV
Tier 2 MO, FL
Tier 3 TX and MS

Obviously, OH  and AZ as wave insurance are must win a combo of MO, FL, WV and MT, TX and MS any two of 6 gets D's to promise land of 51/50 with Gallego of course

There is zero benefit for Dems contesting Mississippi. The state is incredibly racially polarized, and Roger Wicker has incumbency advantage and will win by at least 15%. Far better ways to spend money.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What's interesting about Texas Dems is starting in 2014 they started running dedicated liberal candidates instead of moderates. Wendy Davis, Lupe Valdez, MJ Hegar, and ofc Beto O'Rourke were pretty liberal on the issues of guns and abortion. This strategy worked to an extent and got them into single digits, but there seems to be a 3-5% wall they run into. Not saying they need to neccesarily be pro life but maybe support some late term restrictions? And they need to be visibly pro 2A and not be saying stuff like Beto's "hell yes" comment. Background checks are one thing but wanting to confiscate people's guns in Texas of all places is not smart politics. If they can tone down their rhetoric a little bit, they might peel off enough voters to crack that seemingly impenetrable ceiling. That's what Sinema did in AZ, she ran a very centrist general election campaign and managed to open the door for other Dems. Once a Democrat breaks through in Texas, they can start to become more liberal on policy but they need to win first.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Hot Take- If Trump is not the nominee, the GOP nominee for President will outperform Cruz by at least 9 points

You think another Republican would win Texas by double digits? I think the days of double digit GOP presidential wins in Texas are over. Cronyn only won by 10 points against someone pretty underfunded.

Abbott actually did worse than Cornyn is several metropolitan counties and that was with pretty terrible D turnout as has been noted elsewhere. (CNN's exit poll had the electorate at Trump+9 and the final result was Abbott+11)

Abbott did really bad in the metro counties all things considered. No way he should have only won Tarrant by 4 and Collin by 10. He was basically running against the Stacey Abrams of Texas.

I think Collin flipping in 2024 is basically a given. More of a question is by how much.

(I wrote this in November, but will repost because I think it is relevant)

Instead of comparing with Trump 2020, I find it more useful to compare with Cornyn 2020 since both he and Abbott are much more of the generic R breed and won by similar margins.


Margins in key counties (slightly rounded to the nearest 0.5% for cleanliness)
Bolded counties show where Abbott did better than Cornyn
DFW
TX GOV 2022 vs TX SEN 2020
Dallas: O'Rourke +27, Hegar +25
Tarrant: Abbott +5, Cornyn +5
Collin: Abbott +10, Cornyn+12
Denton: Abbott+13, Cornyn+14.5

Houston
Harris: O'Rourke +9.5, Hegar +8.5
Fort Bend: O'Rourke +4.5, Hegar +5

Austin
Travis: O'Rourke +47, Hegar +39
Williamson: Abbott +0.5%, Cornyn +3%
Hays: O'Rourke +11, Hegar+5.5

San Antonio
Bexar: O'Rourke +16.5, Hegar +12

El Paso: O'Rourke +28,5, Hegar +33

So Abbott basically underperformed Cornyn in every key metro/suburban county besides El Paso and slightly in Fort Bend. However he did a little over 1 point better, winning by 11 instead of of 9.7. So how did he do this?

Was it the RGV? Let's take a look.
RGV
Zapata: Abbott +6.5, Hegar +11
Starr: O'Rourke +18, Hegar +16
Hidalgo: O'Rourke +18, Hegar +15
Cameron: O'Rourke +9.5, Hegar+13.5
Webb: O'Rourke +25, Hegar+26.5
Jim Hogg: O'Rourke +14.5, Hegar+26

It looks he did a little bit, but Hidalgo is the most populated county in the area and got worse for Abbott. Meanwhile almost no one lives in Jim Hogg and Zapata so I doubt they had a significant impact. So overall it's a mixed bag and I doubt the RGV helped Abbott that much?

So where did the shift come from?
Rural Texas of course!

Abbott squeezed out a few more % in rural counties than Cornyn's margins. Since a decent amount of people live in TX it all adds up and that was enough to expand his margin over Cornyn.

So overall even though the urban parts of TX are continuing to shift left, Rs are continuing to rack up higher and higher margins in the rural parts to make up for it. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic continues in the future.

TLDR The problem for Dems in Texas is they will likely continue to gain in Austin and probably in the DFW area. However, they are struggling a great deal in the Houston area. Harris county is the 3rd largest county in the country, and is <28% non-hispanic white. However, it's only voting like D+10 and its nearly impossible to flip the state with those margins. (Also Harris has really bad turnout, Dems can continue to gain with white suburban voters but their base is still the urban minorities and their turnout in fullforce is the prerequisite to winning statewide) 

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Does Ronald Gutierrez support gun control? That could be his Achilles heel in a state like Texas.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Does Ronald Gutierrez support gun control? That could be his Achilles heel in a state like Texas.

He is from Uvalde.

Not sure if that neccesarily helps him, remember Beto was from El Paso but his gun control stances still hurt him. It is very likely this is the issue Cruz will focus on against him assuming he becomes the nominee.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Defeating an incumbent like Pete Sessions by the margin he did in 2018 was no small feat (John Culberson barely campaigned against Lizzie Fletcher and lost by less). If he can stave off additional bleeding with Hispanic voters I think there's an argument to be made that this could be the cycle's closest Senate race, percentage-wise.

Allred won by 6.5% in a Clinton+2 seat in a blue wave year. Not a bad performance at all, but I wouldn't call it impressive either and I doubt Pete Sessions of all people was some beloved incumbent.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is it possible Allred is internally upset with the direction of the house Dems? I mean why else would an only 3 term Democrat give up his safe seat and probably lose to Cruz in the Senate race? It's also possible he dislikes the job of being a represenative and views potentially being a Senator as a more enjoyable position despite the risks of not winning the seat. It's worth noting Beto was also a Representative for 3 terms when he ran for Senate, but in Beto's case he did it for the national attention and to become a household name. I don't think Allred has the same intentions as he isn't a media seeker.

1. Because he could pull off an upset. People said what they are saying about this race regarding GA 2020, and we know how that turned out.

2. It could help build name recognition ahead of a bid for Governor or another run for Senate in 2026.

It absolutely could end up being an upset, but its rare for people to give up their house seat for the potential of one. In GA 2020 Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock didn't have any elected position they were risking when they ran. I think it has potential to build name rec but in a Presidential year the senate races get overshadowed a lot especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. Running in a midterm year is better for building name recognition since then its the signature race on the ballot.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Well he's better than Hegar at least...

Hegar was coronated by Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, which certainly contributed to her underperforming Biden on the same ticket. I just hope that Schumer and/or the DSCC can once again refrain from coronating anyone early on in the election cycle (they only abandoned the "early coronation" practice for the 2022 cycle; before that, they used to do early coronations for every cycle from 2006 to 2020) so that someone can emerge from the primary who can at least run roughly even with Biden or even overperform him.

I don't think Schumer coronating her isn't what mainly caused her to underperform Biden although it could have impacted her a little bit. It was mainly because many suburban voters who couldn't stand Trump were okay with Cornyn because he was just a generic boring old white incumbent Republican. That's actually very common performance: see McCain 2016, Isakson 2016, even Perdue outperformed Trump in the first round on Nov 3 before the runoff. Obviously Cruz isn't cut from the same cloth so that doesn't apply for 2024, his performance will likely be very similar to Trump possibly even lower.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I have a feeling this primary will break heavily along racial and regional lines.

Assuming both Allred and Gutierrez both remain viable candidates, I'd expect Gutierrez to sweep basically all of the border, the panhandle, and generally most heavily Hispanic communities throughout the state. Allred I suspect will do better in the cities, particularly amongst white liberals and black voters. Also prolly gets a regional boost in Dallas.

That's probably going to be an Allred win then because hispanic voters don't have high turnout.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

While Allred is certainly an underdog, I feel like people are acting as though Texas is Mississippi or Missouri. It wouldn't take that much of a Democratic trend or an underperformance on the part of Cruz for him to be in trouble.

Texas has exposure to some of the same trends as Mississippi post-Dobbs. Missouri on the other hand has abortion on the ballot and Hawley is likely more toxic than Cruz at this point.

Cruz will likely be one of the few Senate candidates that outperform Trump (if there are any at all), given that Trump is below generic R in Texas.

It's far from a given that Dobbs will push Texas to the right. I could just as easily see it moving left as sort of a backlash against some of Texas's draconian laws. And I really fail to see how Cruz, who is quite polarizing at best, manages to outperform Trump, especially if other Republicans don't.

Ted Cruz would run behind someone like DeSantis or Haley if they were the nominee, but I could see Cruz potentially outperform Trump because of downballot lag in the suburbs.

Cruz set an all-time record low performance in the suburbs in 2018, doing worse than Trump himself did in 2020 in many of them. All of that against Beto O'Rourke. And this revisionist history that Beto O'Rourke was the strongest challenger ever when he didn't moderate on really anything and made the race too nationalized doesn't pass the smell test. Raising a ton of money doesn't make you a great candidate. Ask Amy McGrath and Marcus Flowers.

It was close because 2018 was a blue wave, and not neccesarily because of Cruz. After all, Cruz did outrun Romney in the metro areas despite doing worse statewide 2012, he won Harris county along with Obama.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
https://twitter.com/RolandForTexas/status/1731681301843914971?t=I7pxMDJ358OtQrxY...
https://twitter.com/ColinAllredTX/status/1730270015700533333?t=U0IcMkErUa5R4FeMo...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas Dems obsession for gun control will never cease to amaze me.
[...]

Polling does not support gun control being political kryptonite in TX. For example, exit polls from 2022 for the TX gubernatorial race showed majority support for stricter gun laws (55% in favor according to Edison Research, 51% in favor according to Fox News' Voter Analysis).

The thing with polls like this, is people claim to support it but when push come to shove they just don't trust Democrats with the issue. Beto's campaign was DOA after his AR-15 comments, and even Uvalde swung R in 2022. It's not even like Dems need to constantly focus on being pro-gun, but at this point its apparent that TX Dems focus on gun control even more than the national party which is possibly the reason they are struggling so badly. It doesn't cost them anything to shut up about it, but instead you see people like Roland Gutierrez make it the signature issue of their campaign.

Everytime a school shooting happens, Dems only focus on gun control. There is no bipartisan effort to tackle mental health or improve school security (ie more officers, bullet proof doors), and just scream "its the guns" until they go blue in the face and nothing happens until the next cycle.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I do wonder if Colin Allred being this big-burly former football star may help around the margins both in developing a a brand and making him harder to attack, sort of like how John Fetterman’s huge size helped him develop a brand throughout his career.

Well, being a big-burly former football star wasn't enough to drag Herschel Walker over the finish line. (I'm not saying that this can't potentially be an advantage - I'm saying that it's not a trump card.)

Allred won't treally be percieved as a football star but rather a politician who once played in the NFL as side event. Don't get me wrong, being in the NFL is certainly prestigous, but he had a very limited games and played for a fairly weak Tennesee Titans team at the time. If he played for the Cowboys it could give him more of a local boost maybe, but as of now his star power is much weaker than Herschel Walker's was for better or worse.

Change is coming to the Texas Democrats.
https://twitter.com/RessyPressy/status/1751414355675992116

This is probably good move for TX Dems. Hinojosa was running the part during the disasters of 2012 and 2014 for Texas Dems, and another set of bad years in 2016, 2020, and 2022. The only good year for TX Dems under him was 2018.

Was 2016 really a bad year for TX Dems - it seems they overperformed expectations given Rs overperformance nationally. Dems were never remotely competitive in the TX State Supreme Court seats up that year but they did their job of preventing a GOP supermajority in the State Leg. 2016 was really the first year that Dems really realized they had possible future prospects in TX.

I agree 2020 was kind of a flop. Dems let the GOP outspend them big time which ultimately allowed the GOP to win a bunch of Biden seats in the State Leg and cost Dems a bunch of US House races. Still in hindsight I don't think Dems would've won the legislature with more investment, but it could've been close.

Hillary's campaign actually hit their goals in the metro areas, but they underestimated the significant degree of downballot lag in places like TX07 and TX32. Texas Dems really wanted those two seats but they had to wait two more years before Rs to really started feeling the suburban trends.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Not completely relevant to 2024, but I thought this would be worth sharing. That entire blue chunk of Texas was actually won by Beto in 2018 by <2k votes which is insane. Ted Cruz's entire margin of victory came out of roughly the size of 1.5 congressional districts or 5% of the state's population in east Texas which netted him around 220k votes and thus the win. This map shows you just how well Beto did that year as it was Trump+ 3 in 2020, and Abbott+8 in 2022.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Gutierrez is getting smoked tonight. It will be Allred vs Cruz confirmed now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Texas is a state too red for Allred to win. It is a state that hasn't elected a Democrat in any statewide office since 1994. But Allred's positions are out of step with Texas. He already said that he wished that that the 2nd amendment was not written, so he is running to Bernie Sanders' left and to the left of AOC as she said that gun ownership was not a right.

Immigration will likely be the top issue of this senate race in Texas due to the border crisis that America is living a situation in which we need to secure the border. But Allred not only opposes the border wall but he called it racist and called for that wall to be torn down and in addtion he supports sanctuary cities. He opposed H.R. 2494, a bill that would have made assaulting law enforcement officers, firefighters or other first responders a deportable offense, and H.R. 3941, a bill that would have prohibited school facilities that receive federal funding from housing any illegal immigrants.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-democrats-illegal-immigration-positions-could-come-back-haunt-him-bid-oust-ted-cruz

On energy, there are millions and millions of jobs in Texas that depend on a vibrant oil and gas industry and unleashing America's full energy potentials and using America's own sources of energy is key to fight inflation. But Allred voted against Unlocking our Domestic LNG Potential Act of 2024, a bill that would have repealed restrictions on imports and exports of oil and gas and he voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act appropriating funds for the exploration, production and importation and exportation of sources of energy like oil, minerals, etc.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/36470/97777/177357/unlocking-our-domestic-lng-potential-act-of-2024#97777

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1/all-info

Initially this was going to be one of the key Senate races of the cycle but the enthusiasm just isn't there. Allred is the wrong guy to run against Ted Cruz, Beto's campaign in 2018 was fueled by grassroots energy and excitement, Allred has a very bland DFW corporate tune that can't really echo across a state as large and diverse as Texas. Cruz isn't a very strong incumbent either, but he is in a much better position with the GOP base than he was in 2018 when he was fighting Trump in the primary. The thing is though Ted Cruz isn't an awful incumbent that has the ability to underperform Trump by a significant amount.

The biggest problem for Allred is doesn't look like Biden is even within striking distance in the lone star state and it's not like Allred is going to appeal to a significant amount of Trump voters. Unless Biden somehow comes back and not just wins the election, but actually takes Texas or gets it to an incredibly slim margin, Ted Cruz probably survives.

The math just isn't there for Texas Dems in 2024. They are going to need some insane margins and I'm talking like double digits Tarrant and D+20 Harris county to narrowly win the state, but that doesn't even account for the RGV and rurals shifting right again.

The days of ruby red Texas are over, but I think we are in the era of salmon red Texas where Rs continue to win by mid-high single digits. I'm somewhat bold and think Cruz will outrun Trump actually, and wins by 8 as opposed to Trump's 7.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I've wondered if a Jason Kander-type Democrat would do well in a Texas statewide race.

What's ironic is if Paul Sadler ran this year against Ted Cruz he would be more competitive than Allred right now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/LeadingReport/status/1770148349787926648
If Ted Cruz becomes AG, Dems might get another chance to flip this seat.