Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sigh Rs we're supposed to win 237 seats they didn't obviously the Approvals lied the Senate races went with the Approvals but the H races didnt go as expected

Trump netted seats in 2018 and had 46% Approvals

You said Trafalgar was the most accurate Pollster the failed their A rating

Dixon +1
Masters +1

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Biden JOB APPROVALS per Exits:
Texas 40/58
North Carolina 43/56
Ohio 41/58
Wisconsin 46/54
Pennsylvania 46/53

Those are just a few. Biden had a negative Job Approval in every single Swing State in 2022.

and yet [gestures at midterm results]

[Real Texan Politics]

And this is why Hays didn't really move at all this year.
https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1591088933164974080?s=20&t=4blfZ7f...

Biden JOB APPROVALS per Exits:
Texas 40/58
North Carolina 43/56
Ohio 41/58
Wisconsin 46/54
Pennsylvania 46/53

Those are just a few. Biden had a negative Job Approval in every single Swing State in 2022.

Ha Trafalgar lost it's A rating again Hobbs not Lake won😊😊😊

Arizona is still counting votes anyways so....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/trafalgar-group-terrible-polling-2022.html

Meet the Trafalgar pollster that said R wave

[Skill and Chance]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What really shocked me was the CNN exit poll. It had Abbott at 48% with Asian voters. I would have expected something more like 38%.

[Skill and Chance]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What really shocked me was the CNN exit poll. It had Abbott at 48% with Asian voters. I would have expected something more like 38%.

That could be real.  Abbott did considerably better than Trump in Ft. Bend, for example.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

One of the better coalition shifts as far as D underperformances go. Although the R overperformance among Asians in the exit poll and Fort Bend makes me wonder what exactly Beto did to piss off the Chinese, Indian, Filipino, and Vietnamese Boomer immigrants… Too bad Bagel23 is no longer with us…

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What about Lina Hidalgo?

[Gass3268]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

One of the better coalition shifts as far as D underperformances go. Although the R overperformance among Asians in the exit poll and Fort Bend makes me wonder what exactly Beto did to piss off the Chinese, Indian, Filipino, and Vietnamese Boomer immigrants… Too bad Bagel23 is no longer with us…

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What about Lina Hidalgo?

Lina Hidalgo narrowly won.

Also looking at the state house map, I would be shocked if Democrats don't take it by the end of the decade. Way to many growing suburban seats with Republicans only getting 56% of the vote or less.

[Tintrlvr]

Well, disappointed to see that Beto couldn't hold his 2018 margins in DFW, though I suppose that was unlikely. Definitely didn't see the organizational strength from his campaign that Republicans had in my area, despite the energetic rallies, so Democrats in Texas really need to go back to the drawing board as far as our ground game is concerned imo.

This is just the Abbott vs. Cruz difference. Abbott is personally popular and has a strong brand in the suburbs. Cruz is an unlikable cretin. It will be much more interesting to see the first major open seat race in Texas in a while when it finally happens.

[Skill and Chance]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

One of the better coalition shifts as far as D underperformances go. Although the R overperformance among Asians in the exit poll and Fort Bend makes me wonder what exactly Beto did to piss off the Chinese, Indian, Filipino, and Vietnamese Boomer immigrants… Too bad Bagel23 is no longer with us…

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What about Lina Hidalgo?

Lina Hidalgo narrowly won.

Also looking at the state house map, I would be shocked if Democrats don't take it by the end of the decade. Way to many growing suburban seats with Republicans only getting 56% of the vote or less.

Yes, unless they start clawing back ground in Harris, this is eventually going to turn into the opposite of Wisconsin for Republicans where they routinely carry the statewide PV by carrying the rural/exurban seats 75/20 and lose everything else narrowly.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Looks like Bell County zoomed R pretty hard this cycle vs 2020. It shifted 11 points, right up there with many of the rurals.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

Well it’s not really surprising given Trump greatly underperformed generic R in DFW , greatly overperformed in RGV and Houston Area was a slight underperformance(at least in 2020, as it was a great underperformance in 16).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Instead of comparing with Trump 2020, I find it more useful to compare with Cornyn 2020 since both he and Abbott are much more of the generic R breed and won by similar margins.


Margins in key counties (slightly rounded to the nearest 0.5% for cleanliness)
Bolded counties show where Abbott did better than Cornyn
DFW
TX GOV 2022 vs TX SEN 2020
Dallas: O'Rourke +27, Hegar +25
Tarrant: Abbott +5, Cornyn +5
Collin: Abbott +10, Cornyn+12
Denton: Abbott+13, Cornyn+14.5

Houston
Harris: O'Rourke +9.5, Hegar +8.5
Fort Bend: O'Rourke +4.5, Hegar +5

Austin
Travis: O'Rourke +47, Hegar +39
Williamson: Abbott +0.5%, Cornyn +3%
Hays: O'Rourke +11, Hegar+5.5

San Antonio
Bexar: O'Rourke +16.5, Hegar +12

El Paso: O'Rourke +28,5, Hegar +33

So Abbott basically underperformed Cornyn in every key metro/suburban county besides El Paso and slightly in Fort Bend. However he did a little over 1 point better, winning by 11 instead of of 9.7. So how did he do this?

Was it the RGV? Let's take a look.
RGV
Zapata: Abbott +6.5, Hegar +11
Starr: O'Rourke +18, Hegar +16
Hidalgo: O'Rourke +18, Hegar +15
Cameron: O'Rourke +9.5, Hegar+13.5
Webb: O'Rourke +25, Hegar+26.5
Jim Hogg: O'Rourke +14.5, Hegar+26

It looks he did a little bit, but Hidalgo is the most populated county in the area and got worse for Abbott. Meanwhile almost no one lives in Jim Hogg and Zapata so I doubt they had a significant impact. So overall it's a mixed bag and I doubt the RGV helped Abbott that much?

So where did the shift come from?
Rural Texas of course!

Abbott squeezed out a few more % in rural counties than Cornyn's margins. Since a decent amount of people live in TX it all adds up and that was enough to expand his margin over Cornyn.

So overall even though the urban parts of TX are continuing to shift left, Rs are continuing to rack up higher and higher margins in the rural parts to make up for it. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic continues in the future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX voted for Rick Perry numerous times so it's not surprising that Abbott can win as many times as he wants

[bagelman]

How did Beto do in Uvalde?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This wasn't even close Beto lost by 11 and some polls had 4/6 pts

[wbrocks67]

It's certainly depressing that Abbott did much better than expected in the suburbs given his antics over the last two years.

[Independents for Nihilism]

If Democrats need a big name to replace Beto O'Rourke who seems to have flamed out (finally), may I suggest trying to recruit the actor Matthew McConaughey as the new standard bearer?  We should get him to run against either Senator Ted Cruz in 2024, or run for governor in 2026.  

I read somewhere that Scott Kelly lives in Texas. Kelly 2.0 for Senate, McConaughey for Governor.

[clever but short]

Looks like Bell County zoomed R pretty hard this cycle vs 2020. It shifted 11 points, right up there with many of the rurals.

Counties with military bases were fairly bad for Democrats in a lot of states. I don't know why exactly, but I wonder if asymmetric low turnout is related.

[Real Texan Politics]

Looks like Bell County zoomed R pretty hard this cycle vs 2020. It shifted 11 points, right up there with many of the rurals.

Probably because of low black turnout, same with Jefferson.

How did Beto do in Uvalde?

Abbott +22, although it looks like it did trend left a little bit as it only swung right by 2 points compared to the rest of the state (should be easy to guess why).

[It’s so Joever]

Not sure how the takeaway is Texas voting for an incumbent Governor by less than what he won by in a D wave year is that Dems should stop investing in Texas. If anything this is an encouraging result in the state lmao.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not sure how the takeaway is Texas voting for an incumbent Governor by less than what he won by in a D wave year is that Dems should stop investing in Texas. If anything this is an encouraging result in the state lmao.

Abbott was far far more controversial in 2022 than 2018 so his vote share dropped to basically what the average R in Texas would get

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

How did Beto do in Uvalde?

He lost it by 22.

[Southern Reactionary Dem]

Not sure how the takeaway is Texas voting for an incumbent Governor by less than what he won by in a D wave year is that Dems should stop investing in Texas. If anything this is an encouraging result in the state lmao.

I suppose, but that's about how Bill White did in 2010 in a much redder year. If you adjust for the national environment and population shifts in the last decade, White had a much more impressive performance.