MI-SEN 2024 Megathread - Meijer out

[Vosem]

It's hard to see how Republicans have a chance here after the 2022 results unless Slotkin has a big scandal.

The only reason why I question it is because Republicans practically didn't put a statewide candidate in 2022, so republican turnout ought to have been lower than usual.

Republican turnout was quite high; Dixon actually received the most votes of any Republican candidate for Governor of Michigan ever on her way to an 11-point defeat. The issue was that in the presence of an abortion referendum Democratic turnout came close to matching presidential-level turnout throughout the state, and that couldn't be matched by the conservative effort anywhere -- but particularly not in a state where the party organization was singularly incompetent and three non-officeholders running terrible campaigns were nominated.

Outside of the statewide elections, Democrats did quite well in Michigan because they were better-organized -- winning total control of the state legislature for the first time since the 1980s -- but they actually didn't win the PV by all that much (the vote for the US House was D 50-48, and the vote for the Michigan Senate was D 50-49 -- actually weaker than several 2010s elections at which the GOP had held on). In a more normal turnout environment, without an abortion referendum (this part is easy), and with a more normal candidate who can appeal to Whitmer/Nessel/Benson/down-ballot R voters (this part is likely to turn out to be hard), and with a national environment that isn't a Democratic landslide (this part is unknowable), the seat probably can be won by the GOP, although it isn't easy and, like I said above, starts at Leans D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dems really going to avoid yet ANOTHER contentious primary, it seems. You love to see it.

It seems MI/WI/MN Dems actually learned a lesson from 2016.

It's actually pretty incredible how Trump's win and narrative of Rust Belt strength (real though drastically exaggerated by the media) led to these three states' + PA's Democratic parties building absolutely behemoth organizations and their Republican parties to learn all the wrong lessons and crater.

I was thinking about something similar recently, but on more national lines.  Elections come down to (a) successfully turning out your base voters (and hoping the other side is less successful at turning out theirs) and (b) persuading the persuadable voters.  In 2016, Trump managed to both turn out lots of low-propensity Republican voters and to persuade some swing voters who were put off of Hillary, and the combination gave him a victory by the skin of his teeth.  Credit where it's due to the Trump campaign for finding this strategy; it was one that looked unlikely to pay off, but it was the only one that could have won for him, and it did.

However, the Republicans learned at least one critically wrong lesson from that victory: they thought, and some continue to think, that the same strategy that eked out a victory once is guaranteed to work again.  They failed to realize that any set of actions creates consequences and reactions. Trump's term as President horrified so many people that in subsequent elections, it both activated Democratic base turnout and shifted many persuadable voters to the Democratic camp (even worse for the Republicans, the latter group includes high-propensity voters like college-educated suburbanites).  Boosting turnouts from both bases is a contest that increasingly favors Democrats for demographic reasons.  Trump staying in the spotlight, and many Republicans continuing to support him and his messages, just continues these trends.

The Republicans are like a poker player who once won a big pot by filling an inside straight and concluded that drawing to an inside straight is always a smart play.  It's not; although the straight will occasionally get filled (probability requires it), it loses much more often, and in the long run will lose lots of money.  If the Republicans run on a platform that's focused on the economy and crime, de-emphasize the culture war stuff, and push Trump and other crazies to the side, they can win; look at what happened in New York and California last November.  However, to do this consistently on a national scale, they need to kick Trump & Co. to the curb.  While this would certainly cause them some short-term pain, if they don't do it they're going to spend a long time in the wilderness.

[Pollster]

I was thinking about something similar recently, but on more national lines.  Elections come down to (a) successfully turning out your base voters (and hoping the other side is less successful at turning out theirs) and (b) persuading the persuadable voters.  In 2016, Trump managed to both turn out lots of low-propensity Republican voters and to persuade some swing voters who were put off of Hillary, and the combination gave him a victory by the skin of his teeth.  Credit where it's due to the Trump campaign for finding this strategy; it was one that looked unlikely to pay off, but it was the only one that could have won for him, and it did.

However, the Republicans learned at least one critically wrong lesson from that victory: they thought, and some continue to think, that the same strategy that eked out a victory once is guaranteed to work again.  They failed to realize that any set of actions creates consequences and reactions. Trump's term as President horrified so many people that in subsequent elections, it both activated Democratic base turnout and shifted many persuadable voters to the Democratic camp (even worse for the Republicans, the latter group includes high-propensity voters like college-educated suburbanites).  Boosting turnouts from both bases is a contest that increasingly favors Democrats for demographic reasons.  Trump staying in the spotlight, and many Republicans continuing to support him and his messages, just continues these trends.

The Republicans are like a poker player who once won a big pot by filling an inside straight and concluded that drawing to an inside straight is always a smart play.  It's not; although the straight will occasionally get filled (probability requires it), it loses much more often, and in the long run will lose lots of money.  If the Republicans run on a platform that's focused on the economy and crime, de-emphasize the culture war stuff, and push Trump and other crazies to the side, they can win; look at what happened in New York and California last November.  However, to do this consistently on a national scale, they need to kick Trump & Co. to the curb.  While this would certainly cause them some short-term pain, if they don't do it they're going to spend a long time in the wilderness.

I agree a lot with your general vibe here but I think a bigger culprit is complacency, in multiple forms. It's easy to forget today but all the money was on HRC in 2016 (anyone who tells you they firmly expected Trump to win is likely lying/engaging in revisionism) so lots of people who likely otherwise leaned left/centrist sat the Presidential race out and/or voted third party (especially in the Midwest - I'm sure I don't have to remind anyone how low the two major party vote shares were in MI, WI, MN, etc) out of complacency with the comfort of the assumption that the status quo would continue.

When this didn't happen, Democrats responded with a laser-like focus on electability, strengthening organizations, and building turnout and small-dollar fundraising machines largely in the exact places they were most complacent. Republicans on the other hand saw Trump's victory as an affront to these exact concepts (it wasn't, obviously) and developed a complacency of their own with the idea that they can discount wide appeal/swing and non-base voters and nominate the candidates who energize the id of the party base. Trump and his yes-men's clown show after the 2020 election served to add strength to this complacency at the exact moment when it was best poised to be reversed.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honestly knowing the GOP’s luck the nominee is going to be John Gibbs

[SnowLabrador]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

LoL do you know what's going on with Fox news and Trump they are being civilly charged with fake Eday schemes Biden has beaten the RS 4* Obama put Biden on the ballot as Veep he didn't win a landslide by himself we have won. The PVI 65/60 M and 80/75 M there areore D's not more RS in this country the RS underestimate CCM, Kelly and Fetterman last time it's not a Midterm it's a Prez Eday we won the state legislature in a Neutral yr in 22 it's not gonna be a red Eday in a Prez and Gas prices are 2.50 not 7.00

Sen elect Slotkin and Brown is gonna win because DeWine isn't on the ballot that won OH for Vance because Hamilton county went for DeWine and Vance almost won it white females voted R Brown will easily carry with Greg Landsman reelected Hamilton if Tester is leading in red MT

White FEM votes D in Columbus and Cleveland but Cincy when RS run up the score won Cincy Portman, Kasich and Bush W cleaned out clocks in Cincy but no DeWine direct on the ballot Brown will carry it

[JMT]

Tom Barrett had been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, but it looks like he’ll be running for MI-07 again instead:

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1630394068269187074?s=46&t=u1O_0BNhhe5xqn...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

I don't think anyone expected you to think differently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He roots for RS and he supposed to be a red Avatar and it's called Corporate Greed RS are trying to cut food stamps, if things were like they were in 1988 of course we can afford to cut taxes like Reagan did but it's not

Corporate Greed is R trickle down economics, it's not raising taxes DeSantis keep talking about cutting taxes but taxes pay for roads and bridges

All those high property taxes paid for recovery efforts in IAN

Slotkin is favorite because she is a Vet she said that in her opening campaign

It's a difference critical of Biden and Clinton because of Scandal but Biden polls have recovered to some degree since Docugate because of GA indictments

[MT Treasurer]

Slotkin is a stronger candidate than Stabenow, MI is going to be the hardest battleground state for the GOP to win back at the presidential level, and the MI GOP is in an even worse position than the PA GOP when it comes to launching statewide campaign operations and relying on a firm base. It’s by no means impossible that this seat flips on a really good night for the GOP, but it’d basically the last seat to flip, probably even after PA and WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin is a stronger candidate than Stabenow, MI is going to be the hardest battleground state for the GOP to win back at the presidential level, and the MI GOP is in an even worse position than the PA GOP when it comes to launching statewide campaign operations and relying on a firm base. It’s by no means impossible that this seat flips on a really good night for the GOP, but it’d basically the last seat to flip, probably even before PA and WI.

The RS arent winning MI and PA with Shapiro and Whitmer and your map is wrong RS are down 13 pts on PA and WI we are gonna win a SCOTUS majority on the Crt

DeSantis isn't winning anything name one thing that he has personally connected with blk voters outside IAN zilch we aren't the majority but we make a difference in a 5 pt race

Slotkin is a Vet too that's why she has the advantage

RS think that blks don't matter because we are only 50 M compared to 200 M whites but lower income females and Latinos vote with us to make a 5 pt race go D that's why Brown still has a shot in OH Vance only won by 6 that's easy to make up in a higher Turnout Eday

Cruz and Vance at CPac says RS own OH no they don't not with 5 pts

[Nyvin]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

That's such a surprise, I was thinking you'd say the race was Safe D...

[Zedonathin2020]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

I once opened up a dictionary to the word "doomer", and it had your avatar on there for some reason. Can't imagine why....

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

I once opened up a dictionary to the word "doomer", and it had your avatar on there for some reason. Can't imagine why....

But the Supreme Court will ban the dictionary after Trump winning a third term in 2028 allows the 9-0 conservative court to murder every single minority and queer person!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

People are really underestimating the GOP in this race. I see Michigan as no better than a tossup for Democrats at the presidential level, and depending on the Republican candidate, they may be able to outrun the top of the ticket. Tossup, since it seems like presidential years are better for Republicans now than midterms.

I once opened up a dictionary to the word "doomer", and it had your avatar on there for some reason. Can't imagine why....

But the Supreme Court will ban the dictionary after Trump winning a third term in 2028 allows the 9-0 conservative court to murder every single minority and queer person!

This is honestly as likely to happen as Slotkin loosing

[SnowLabrador]

Tudor Dixon will not run for this seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Snow Labor does not understand how pis work Biden is near 50 percent in Approvals how did Johnson win he was polling at 50 against Barnes gas prices aren't 7 it's 2.59 just like Laxalt, Masters and Walker and Oz all failed it's over since Biden is near 50 but he thinks it's some magical red wave and he is D

[Pollster]

Heard last night that Slotkin has parted ways with the polling team that did her Congressional races and hired Whitmer's pollsters for this race.

I doubt accuracy was the concern here - there wasn't a single Democratic polling firm that got Michigan's statewide races right last cycle (including Whitmer's) - but perhaps a signal about the kind of campaign that Slotkin plans to run.

[syntaxerror]

Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

Why do you say that? Sinema is a unique breed in that she changes her ideaology to match what she thinks will get her elected, going from Progressive congresswoman to whatever she is now

[Tekken_Guy]

Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

No she is not. The only Sinema-esque person in the house is Josh Gottheimer.

[wbrocks67]

Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

Why do you say that? Sinema is a unique breed in that she changes her ideaology to match what she thinks will get her elected, going from Progressive congresswoman to whatever she is now

Yeah this line of attack is getting really annoying. It's not based in reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Slotkin is another Sinema in the making... not sure whey Senate Dems are clearing the field for her.

She is a Vet and Sinema was LGBT they thought her being involved in community she would before progressive

That's why we are targeting MO, AZ, OH and MT to get to 51(49 in case there is one defection and WV is pure wave insurance outside 50/51 seats the last Target

Don't spend a dime on FL in TX, with Boswell and John Love, due to Shawn Wilson is losing but Presley and Beshear stand a chance 7 pts down is MOE in a state like MS and Kunce I suspect is 7 down not 15 like Valentine

Send all monies to Tester, Kunce, Brown and Gallego and Abortion is on the ballot MO just like it was in KS 22

[Orwell]

I like Slotkin, I’ll probably vote for her in the general if I’m still here. I voted for her last year.

[NewYorkExpress]

Joceyln Benson is out.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said Friday she won't run for U.S. Senate in 2024 for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Lansing.

Benson, a Detroit Democrat, said in a video posted to Twitter that she had received encouragement from around the state to run but that she'd decided instead to focus on protecting democracy and ensuring fair and safe elections