MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/22/national-republicans-senate-candidates-rich-00088199

Nestled in the above politico article which mention GOP recruitment of Scheechy is a quote that makes it seem like Zinc won't run.

"But it seems increasingly likely that another contender for Senate in Montana, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who served as Donald Trump’s secretary of the Interior, won’t enter the race. In an interview this month, he said he had not made a decision but that his current focus was on his work on the Appropriations Committee, which he described as a “full-time job.” “I can’t run the Senate campaign and be in Appropriations,” he said."

It seems that the MT GOP won't be so much divided through a wide open primary race, increasing our chances to win the race. A bit like when Rick Scott was the uncontested frontrunner for the Republican senate nomination in 2018, it gave him enough time to raise funds and appeal among general election voters, which likely played a role in his razor thin margin

Eday is 20 mnths away and Biden leads RS in all Prez matchup he is being dogged by Docugate that's bringing down his Approvals but raising taxes would only be raised on people making over 100K a yr and Rs are blocking Student Loan forgiveness which cost 300B the same as we are funding the war in Ukraine

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...

Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

I'm not interested in a protacted debate here, I will just conclude by saying you are sorely underestimating our intelligence community and their capabilities. If "at risk" is the right descriptor, then it surely means something else than the general alarming connatations the term usually embodies.

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

I'm not interested in a protacted debate here, I will just conclude by saying you are sorely underestimating our intelligence community and their capabilities. If "at risk" is the right descriptor, then it surely means something else than the general alarming connatations the term usually embodies.

So you would rather believe Xi Jinping than the U.S. military officials and intelligence officials that are sworn to protect our nation

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

I'm not interested in a protacted debate here, I will just conclude by saying you are sorely underestimating our intelligence community and their capabilities. If "at risk" is the right descriptor, then it surely means something else than the general alarming connatations the term usually embodies.

So you would rather believe Xi Jinping than the U.S. military officials and intelligence officials that are sworn to protect our nation

From your own article:

The Defense Department directed NBC News to comments senior officials made in February that the balloon had “limited additive value” for intelligence collection by the Chinese government “over and above what [China] is likely able to collect through things like satellites in low earth orbit.”

On Monday, a Defense Department spokesperson reiterated that any intelligence collected had "limited additive value" for China and said she could not confirm that the balloon had transmitted any information back to China in "real time."

National Security Council spokesperson Kirby John declined to answer questions Monday afternoon about what kind of electronic signals or communications the balloon could have accessed.

“Knowing it was going to enter U.S. airspace we took action to limit the ability of this balloon to garner anything of additive or especially useful content,” said Kirby. “So again, I won’t get ahead of what we’re learning off this thing.”

And obviously senators need to be very careful what they're telling reporters after a classified session.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

Not true Tester won in 2012 against Rehberg

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

Not true Tester won in 2012 against Rehberg

I said « in presidential elections » and Tester wasn’t running for President in 2012

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

Not true Tester won in 2012 against Rehberg

I said « in presidential elections » and Tester wasn’t running for President in 2012

Obama was Prez we didn't win MT but Tester beat Rehnberg in 2012 I was making the clarification

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1643259668821684225?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1643259668821684225?s=20

Well, that sucks. Not that it matters. I truly believe Tester was going to lose anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

This is the kind of ruthlessness that has long been missing from the MT GOP's way of operating, with election results reflecting that for an equally long time. I support this, but I wouldn’t count on it passing.

More worrying for Democrats than this bill (which might be struck down by the Court if it passed in the state legislature) are the Census numbers:

https://twitter.com/jeremycarl4/status/1641565670507945985

The theory that 2020 was mostly a one-off because of "pandemic refugees" or "Trump-only voters" was already disproven badly in 2022, when virtually every state legislative race mirrored the 2020 results. The state is more polarized internally than at any point in time I can remember.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the kind of ruthlessness that has long been missing from the MT GOP's way of operating, with election results reflecting that for an equally long time. I support this, but I wouldn’t count on it passing.

More worrying for Democrats than this bill (which might be struck down by the Court if it passed in the state legislature) are the Census numbers:

https://twitter.com/jeremycarl4/status/1641565670507945985

The theory that 2020 was mostly a one-off because of "pandemic refugees" or "Trump-only voters" was already disproven badly in 2022, when virtually every state legislative race mirrored the 2020 results. The state is more polarized internally than at any point in time I can remember.

LoL if we lose the S it will be 48 and Tillis and Collins would be vulnerable in 26 to Jeff Jackson and Golden and 28Johnson is vulnerable again he won't overpolls in a Prez Eday and neither will Vance to Landsman or a Ryan comeback and Rs have only 222 and instead corrupted Biden with Hunter in 28 we will have a brand new Prez race Harris, Newsom and RFK Jr with no Hunter Biden and there is still the Filibuster in the S until Voting Rights is passed and Sinema would be gone Gallego is winning

Filibuster proof Trifecta doesn't stop in 24 it applies thru 28

We had 47 in 2020

[Pollster]

All that turning the primary into "general election round one" will accomplish is forcing Tester to actually turn out voters and basically give him a months-long head start in organizing and targeting swing voters while the Republican field spends time and money dragging each other down and targeting the base. The results then give Tester a clear blueprint for who/where to target to get 50% in November. For pollsters especially, this setup is incredibly helpful.

There is plenty of recent precedent for systems like this backfiring on otherwise-dominant state parties - both of John Bel Edwards' elections essentially followed this pattern. Incredibly misguided and foresight-lacking move here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note we are targeting TX, FL and MO so just because RS win MT and WV does not automatic give them the S

[gerritcole]

https://twitter.com/philipletsou/status/1623803688836792327?s=42&t=8YV9f98ZL...
Tester doesn’t believe the Chinese Spy Balloon puts our national security at risk. Yet this morning, NBC News reported that this Chinese Spy Balloon was able to gather intelligence from several U.S. military bases while it was flying over the U.S. territory. And one of the U.S. bases the balloon hovered over for days was Montana’s Malmstrom Air Force Base where the U.S. stores some of its nuclear assets. That’s another example of Jon Tester’s weakness on the Chinese threat. This does not reflect MT

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-spy-balloon-collected-intelligence-us-military-bases-rcna77155

Guy who claims a single weather balloon from a foreign country is enough to put our national security at risk wants to lecture us about weakness. Interesting.

That’s the reason why your party hasn’t won a single race in MT in presidential elections since 1996. Your attitude is similar to Hillary Clinton response to Congress about her responsibility in the Benghazi attack in which she said, quote, « What difference at this point does it make? » That’s one of the reasons she has lost the election of 2016. The intelligence China collected was mostly electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel, rather than images. It is not my words, these are the words of the officials. So it’s naive to say that this was a civilian airship used for research and metheorological purposes

Not true Tester won in 2012 against Rehberg

I said « in presidential elections » and Tester wasn’t running for President in 2012

Oh now what will the dems do without Montana and its mighty 4, previously 3 electoral votes, shall we talk about the gops performance in California or ny??

[UWS]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1643259668821684225?s=20

Well, that sucks. Not that it matters. I truly believe Tester was going to lose anyway.

Because the reason why the 2018 senate results in Montana were so close even though Tester led Rosendale for months with comfortable margins, is because Rick Breckenridge, the libertarian, withdrew from the race and endorsed Rosendale, which increasingly brought conservatives home rallying around Rosendale, though it was a bit late in the campaign as Breckenbridge still got almost 3 % of the vote. So maybe if Breckenbridge had withdrew earlier, perhaps Rosendale would have won

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is the kind of ruthlessness that has long been missing from the MT GOP's way of operating, with election results reflecting that for an equally long time. I support this, but I wouldn’t count on it passing.

More worrying for Democrats than this bill (which might be struck down by the Court if it passed in the state legislature) are the Census numbers:

https://twitter.com/jeremycarl4/status/1641565670507945985

The theory that 2020 was mostly a one-off because of "pandemic refugees" or "Trump-only voters" was already disproven badly in 2022, when virtually every state legislative race mirrored the 2020 results. The state is more polarized internally than at any point in time I can remember.

Yeah those census numbers if true should be concerning, but it seems like a lot of these current estimates are subject to the same errors the estimates had pre-2020 census, underestimating a lot of bluer cities. For instance, the NYC estimates seem physically close to impossible unless suddenly the average household size decreased by nearly 10% (most will rmbr NYC performed much better than expected in the census).

According to the 2020 census, Bozeman had pretty insane growth (fastest growing part of MT) whereas greater Missoula and Helena grew but nothing to write home about.

I think people also need to rmbr that places like Missoula, Helena, and Bozeman are all relatively small, even as a % of Montana's overall population. More Conservative Billings is the biggest.

I think as you say, Ds biggest concern in MT should be if it's becoming sort of like Idaho; growing communities of conservative transplants trying to create conservative paradise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't have to win MT and WV we have MO, FL and TX as wave insurance

Josh Hawley only won by 51/45 the same as Vance it's called wave insurance, MOE is 5 pts

[UWS]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it
We are aggressively targeting MO and TX MT and FL aren't tge end all be all

Weren't you the one that said RS were gonna win WI you were wrong

[UWS]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it

We are aggressively targeting MO and TX MT and FL aren't tge end all be all

Weren't you the one that said RS were gonna win WI you were wrong

That's false, I never said that we were guaranteed to win WI, I said that nothing guaranteed that your party wins this Supreme Court race

You want to lecture me about being wrong? You have always said that Terry McCauliffe was going to win in VA, you've been wrong. You've always said that Tim Ryan was going to win in Ohio, you've been wrong. You've always said that Charlie Crist was going to win in FL, you've been wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it
We are aggressively targeting MO and TX MT and FL aren't tge end all be all

Weren't you the one that said RS were gonna win WI you were wrong

That's false, I never said that we were guaranteed to win WI, I said that nothing guaranteed that your party wins this Supreme Court race

You want to lecture me about being wrong? You have always said that Terry McCauliffe was going to win in VA, you've been wrong. You've always said that Tim Ryan was going to win in Ohio, you've been wrong. You've always said that Charlie Crist was going to win in FL, you've been wrong

I always had Brown winning and oh DeSantis received the same bump that Obama dis on Sandy why is he losing to Biden now by 7 pts a 7 pt victory give us OH, TX and NC 380 EC votes

[UWS]

The MT GOP's bill to adopt the jungle primary bill system like in California or in Washington state will likely pass because the Montana Senate has 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats, the Montana House of Representatives has 68 Republicans and 32 Democrats (which represents 2/3 of the vote there) and Montana has a Republican Governor so there is no one to veto it
We are aggressively targeting MO and TX MT and FL aren't tge end all be all

Weren't you the one that said RS were gonna win WI you were wrong

That's false, I never said that we were guaranteed to win WI, I said that nothing guaranteed that your party wins this Supreme Court race

You want to lecture me about being wrong? You have always said that Terry McCauliffe was going to win in VA, you've been wrong. You've always said that Tim Ryan was going to win in Ohio, you've been wrong. You've always said that Charlie Crist was going to win in FL, you've been wrong

I always had Brown winning and oh DeSantis received the same bump that Obama dis on Sandy why is he losing to Biden now by 7 pts a 7 pt victory give us OH, TX and NC 380 EC votes

This wasn't the only factor Congressman Crist lost because on Election Day, FL became a strongly R state as the GOP had 950,000 more registered voters in FL than Dems. So Charlie Crist was not going to win in that state by voting 100 % of the time with Brandon, by saying he would bring back mask mandates and shut down the FL economy if elected again, by voting to add 87,000 agents to the IRS, by selecting a Marxist-Leninist and pro Castro his Lieutenant Governor, by having seen a  tripple of FL's unemployment rate during his time and raised taxes by $2.2 billion during his time as Governor and said he wasn't ruling out raising taxes if elected