AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Does Sinema have a chance in the primary? I'm worried that her incumbency might be too much to overcome.

I would think so despite her approval rating. I don't think you can completely write off an incumbent senator in a primary two years out. The left does hater her but two years is an eternity in politics and there is always a chance there is not consolidation behind a single challenger. .

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

2024 becomes a game of chicken for the Democrats.

I suspect despite her objectively terrible favorables with Democrats she would still hurt a potential D candidate more than a GOP one.

The fact is I can't see many AZ Lake voters voting for her and in a 3 way race they are enough.

Her "base" is probably moderate dems, old McCain republicans. 

Do we have polls showing her favorability with how people voted in 2022? That will give us a better idea of who she would hurt. 

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

.....While the GOP controls the House??? 0% the filibuster isn't blocking the dems from anything 20223-2024

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

PPP out with a new poll commissioned by Gallego’s team.

3-way:
Lake (R) 41%
Gallego (D) 40%
Sinema (I) 13%
Unsure 6%

2-way
Gallego (D) 48%
Lake (R) 47%

2-way
Lake (R) 42%
Sinema (I) 39%
Unsure 19%

Gallego fav: 35/27 (+8)
Sinema fav: 31/47 (-16) ……. 43/27 among Trump voters & 20/69 among Biden voters

https://mailchi.mp/802647d37bde/new-poll-ruben-gallego-strongest-candidate-for-2024-az-senate-race

Extremely bad news for Sinema given that Indies poll way better than the actual results, and given her name rec, 13% is a high water mark at this point.

Biased source, but it seems Sinema takes more from Dems than the GOP as expected (despite what many posters here believed)

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1633264899974635520

New party has ballot access in AZ for 2024. Probably one willing to give Senima their ballot line.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Sinema is an extremely toxic topic in Democratic voting circles, if anything she'll more likely take votes away from disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

"McCainite Republicans" voted Hobbs and our at this point a part of a winning Democrat coalition in AZ.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/kari-lake-mccain-arizona-republicans-gabriel/index.html

Lake came very close to winning despite telling McCain supporters not to vote for her.

Sinema is incredibly unpopular in left wing voting circles but those McCain Republicans  are likely voters that dems still need in AZ

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

New prediction market out.

Terribly designed market. Sinema should she run might do so under the No Labels or another self formed party (similar to Connecticut for Lieberman) She should be a seperate line

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I honestly wonder how Masters effects Lake's chances in a primary.

I think it likely harms her chances, she barley won her gubernatorial primary and she and Masters have a similar base. You need a candidate to consolidate the Robinson voters- Lannon maybe???

Masters is not a strong candidate but who knows in a potential 3 way race, the 46.5% he got in 2022 may be enough.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Prediction of Senate endorsements in a Lake, Sinema, Gallego race

Sinema:
Officially:
Manchin
Collins
Murkowski
Romney

Some establishment GOP senators support unofficially

Lake:
Vast majority of senate Rs including Daines

Neutral: Kelley, Tester

Gallego- All other Senate Dems.  

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Polls had been mixed on who this helps

Emerson says this helps Gallego, but PPP has this helping Lake