AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Ferguson97]

I expect Kari Lake to run in 2024 on the basis of the governors race being stolen or something.

Congratulations to Senator-elect Gallego, in that case.

[Ferguson97]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

And risk the House seat in an extremely narrow House that both Kelly and likely Hobbs won?

AZGOP isn't the smartest.

When the neofascists send their people, they're not sending their best

So was John McCain single-handedly holding the state party together or something?

[Ferguson97]

Please primary out Sinema with Gallego and give the GOP another chance to win a senate seat in Arizona.

Nah, you guys are gonna nominate another weirdo freak and Gallego will win.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1601170707375083520

Welp....

[Ferguson97]

Sinema's staff have reached the "leak stuff that makes your boss look bad before you resign" stage:

“KS has Executive Platinum status on AMERICAN AIRLINES and sometimes receives an automatic upgrade to first class. Do not rely on this; in the event that she does not get upgraded, it is important that she have a seat she is comfortable with.

First choice: KS prefers an aisle seat as close to the front of the plane as possible, except that she DOES NOT want the bulkhead row. Those seats are smaller than regular seats and are crowded. She also doesn't want the seat next to/directly in front of the bathroom on planes where there's a bathroom in the middle of the plane. Look at the seat map for every flight you book, or ask the booking agent about the flight map if you're reserving over the phone.

KS generally prefers to be closer to the front in a window seat, than further back in an aisle. It saves her time getting off the plane earlier.

Next choice: if you can't get an aisle seat, get a window seat using the same guidelines as above. This shouldn't happen often, since you're booking most flights six weeks in advance.

Last resort: Do everything in your power not put her in a middle seat. If the circumstances are such that a middle seat is the ONLY option, make sure you email KS to let her know and also provide some information about other flights she might be able to take instead that have better seating options. Don't book so late that middle seats are all that's left.”

Idk this actually seems reasonable to me :/

Yeah there's a lot to criticize Sinema over, but having worked for a number of politicians, this specifically is honestly pretty mild as far as what some of them require.

[Ferguson97]

Doing whatever I can to help Gallego. Terrified that Sinema will siphon off too many votes for give Lake (or some other nut) a plurality win.

[Ferguson97]

Also, what is with this CNN chyron? Who are the Dems that are not in yet? I literally haven't seen any Dems still sticking with Sinema and questioning supporting Gallego...

My guess would be that there's still nearly 2 years until the election and Democrats don't want to risk pissing off Sinema by endorsing her opponent if she plans to run for re-election.

[Ferguson97]

Lmao, Lake doing better than Ducey? Not sure if that means the poll is trash or if it means the AZ GOP is speedrunning the Colorado-ification of the state.

[Ferguson97]

Sinema is very obviously not going to get votes from either partisan Democrats or MAGA Republicans. The people who are going to vote for her in a race with Gallego and Lake are Biden-McSally voters. And given a binary choice between Gallego and Lake, I think most of those people would vote for Gallego.

I just don't really see an argument for the idea that Sinema running as an independent would result in her taking more votes from the Republican candidate.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

If Lake doesn't run, I would be extremely shocked if the AZ GOP failed to recruit even some random ass state legislator to run. Even if some random small business owner gets on the ballot, they'd endorse them over Sinema.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

Doesn't the AZ GOP make their own rules though? Why can't they just decline to put up a candidate?

[Ferguson97]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

I'll laugh my ass off if Biden keeps the Senate for all 8 years of his presidency due to sheer GOP incompetence.

[Ferguson97]

Does Arizona have resign to run laws like Florida did?

[Ferguson97]

Senate GOP campaign arm endorses Kari Lake

So I guess the GOP is writing off Arizona lol

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1777746045838991714