AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

In states with a convention system, this would be an option. In states without a convention, the GOP would need to nominate someone who would willingly drop out for Sinema -- very unlikely. Also, I agree with oldtimer: Sinema's ship for switching to the GOP has sailed. Had she switched the day after the Georgia runoffs (or actually handed the Senate to McConnell), she could've made it; had she acted to prevent Biden judicial nominees from getting through, she could've made it. As it stands it's far too late and she's lost her leverage.

If Kari Lake doesn't run for the Senate (...it kind of vaguely looks like she won't), there'll be an open primary. One fairly serious candidate, Mark Lamb, is already in (I think he would be weak in the general, like Finchem/Lake, but they lost by 0-4 points, so in a better environment he could be a live opportunity). Probably more will enter.

Doesn't the AZ GOP make their own rules though? Why can't they just decline to put up a candidate?

...no, rules regarding how major parties choose their candidates are almost always set by the state government. In some states, like VA and UT, there is a degree of flexibility, but that's actually pretty unusual.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

Luckily taxes are by far the most important issue to the GOP and their donors…
Best case scenario for the GOP at this point is that Masters and Lake both run and split the crazy vote, allowing someone electable to win. But if one of them wins I could see some establishment types/donors going with Sinema. Probably won’t help her much though.

Yeah McConnell basically signalled he's gonna abandon Arizona and spend all the money in Pennsylvania lol.

He, Thune and Cornyn tried to recruit Sinema to party switch (even though she would have lost the primary) so they definitely prefer Sinema.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Casey is up by 9 pts he isn't losing they didn't learn their lesson last time

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/1661764001792159746?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

So hypothetically, if Kari Lake somehow doesn’t run for Senate, could the GOP just go ahead and reluctantly endorse Sinema?

They will never endorse somebody who voted twice to convict Trump.

Or who is extremely socially liberal and a partisan dem on basically everything except the filibuster and taxes.

Luckily taxes are by far the most important issue to the GOP and their donors…
Best case scenario for the GOP at this point is that Masters and Lake both run and split the crazy vote, allowing someone electable to win. But if one of them wins I could see some establishment types/donors going with Sinema. Probably won’t help her much though.

Yeah McConnell basically signalled he's gonna abandon Arizona and spend all the money in Pennsylvania lol.

He, Thune and Cornyn tried to recruit Sinema to party switch (even though she would have lost the primary) so they definitely prefer Sinema.

Do you think this affects Sinema's strategy (if she ultimately stays in till the end). Her choosing to try to target peeling off more moderate D voters vs more moderate R voters could make the difference even if she only gets like 5%.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://politicalwire.com/2023/06/27/pelosi-to-host-fundraiser-for-sinemas-opponent/

Pelosi is doing a fundraiser for Gallego’s campaign!

[wbrocks67]

https://politicalwire.com/2023/06/27/pelosi-to-host-fundraiser-for-sinemas-opponent/

Pelosi is doing a fundraiser for Gallego’s campaign!

Pelosi knows ball.

[Ogre Mage]

https://politicalwire.com/2023/06/27/pelosi-to-host-fundraiser-for-sinemas-opponent/

Pelosi is doing a fundraiser for Gallego’s campaign!

I don't think this would have happened without Schumer's tacit approval.  He sometimes needs Sinema's vote so he has to appear nice.  But Pelosi needs nothing from her.  And Pelosi is one of the best fundraisers in our party.  It would be less notable if it was a House race or a race in California.  But for her to weigh in in a Democratic Senate Primary outside of her home state is a definite signal.

[Pollster]

Sinema and Pelosi never got along when she was a House member (she was always one of the performative anti-Pelosi votes for Speaker) whereas Gallego is reportedly very popular among his fellow members and a stronger fundraiser for the DCCC. This isn't too surprising given that context.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

[DaleCooper]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

[MargieCat]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.

But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.

Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.

[NewYorkExpress]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.

But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.

Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.

Yeah, at this point, it honestly seems more likely that the official Republican nominee would finish in fourth if Sinema and a Libertarian both made the ballot than it would be that the Republican nominee wins.

[DaleCooper]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.

But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.

Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.

I guess McConnell is pretty out of touch. The problem is that they're probably only going to win three Senate seats next year (and that's not certain if they keep clowning around), which sets them up to easily lose the Senate in 2026 if Trump is president and given how 2022 went maybe even make the Senate a tossup with a second Biden term. They need every seat they can get, so throwing any Republican support behind Sinema would practically guarantee Gallego's victory as opposed to just supporting Lake and hoping enough dead-ender McCain Democrats spoil their ballots and vote for Sinema to throw the election to the GOP. Like I said, Senate Republicans seem to be very delusional about their best course of action in 2024 so we'll see. Nothing would surprise me.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

I think it depends on her ego. I don't think she cares at all about helping to get Lake elected to the Senate, but I do think that she'd be uncomfortable with getting 5% of the vote in her reelection campaign.

Her buddies on the right (McConnell, Cornyn, etc) seem to want her to be re-elected. At first, I thought she would love to spoil the race and help a republican get elected.

But her buddies probably don't want someone as unhinged and mental as Kari Lake in their caucus. They'd honestly probably rather have Gallego than Kari Lake in the senate chamber, stirring the pot.

Kari Lake (and Blake Masters) would probably be right at home in the House where they can join the Freedom Caucus.

I guess McConnell is pretty out of touch. The problem is that they're probably only going to win three Senate seats next year (and that's not certain if they keep clowning around), which sets them up to easily lose the Senate in 2026 if Trump is president and given how 2022 went maybe even make the Senate a tossup with a second Biden term. They need every seat they can get, so throwing any Republican support behind Sinema would practically guarantee Gallego's victory as opposed to just supporting Lake and hoping enough dead-ender McCain Democrats spoil their ballots and vote for Sinema to throw the election to the GOP. Like I said, Senate Republicans seem to be very delusional about their best course of action in 2024 so we'll see. Nothing would surprise me.

I mean, honestly, they’re only really guaranteed Manchin’s seat.  Ohio and Montana are both very good opportunities for them, but neither is a done deal by any means (especially if Moreno and Rosendale respectively end up getting nominated, the latter being pretty clearly favored to win the primary if he actually pulls the trigger on a second Senate campaign).

[Sol]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

IIRC it's pretty hard to get on the ballot as an indy, so I assume Sinema's decision will come down to if she thinks she can make the ballot. She's arrogant enough to think she could win but not dumb enough to run if it looks like she can't even make it on the voting ballot.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

IIRC it's pretty hard to get on the ballot as an indy, so I assume Sinema's decision will come down to if she thinks she can make the ballot. She's arrogant enough to think she could win but not dumb enough to run if it looks like she can't even make it on the voting ballot.

No Labels has ballot access in AZ now IIRC.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any timetable when Sinema finally makes a decision? Wikipedia just says she filled paperwork, though that's not necessarily a confirmation of a campaign. I find it hard to believe one can be delusional enough to believe there's a shot to win. And any campaign staffer/pollster telling her there's a bath isn't worth his money.

IIRC it's pretty hard to get on the ballot as an indy, so I assume Sinema's decision will come down to if she thinks she can make the ballot. She's arrogant enough to think she could win but not dumb enough to run if it looks like she can't even make it on the voting ballot.

No Labels has ballot access in AZ now IIRC.

No, it’s very unclear.  There’s ongoing litigation about this and it’s anyone’s guess how that’ll all shake out iirc.

[wbrocks67]

Gallego $3.1M in Q2

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1679483395624017920

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1679517222241181696

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1679517222241181696

Lean D

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1679517222241181696

If Lake ends up running, I wonder how much of her chances hinge on unaffiliated voters choosing to vote in the R primary. Remember, unaffiliated voters aren't neccesarily partisans at heart, so it could be theoretical possible some unaffiliated Dems try 4D chess and nominate her because she's the weakest. It's probably a pretty small pool of voters but could make the difference.

[Sol]

Is it legal to serve as Governor and Senator at the same time?

[TML]

Is it legal to serve as Governor and Senator at the same time?

It's clearly not legal to serve as both simultaneously, but Lake is only governor in her own imagination. (BTW, Arizona only allows governors to retain their governorship while running for US Senate if said governor is running during the final year of the gubernatorial term.)

On another note, in the event a sitting governor gets elected to the US Senate but the expiration of the gubernatorial term is later than the date of the senatorial inauguration, the governor must officially relinquish the governorship before being seated as Senator.

[Senator Incitatus]

It's creepy for a politician to actually use the punditese word "eyeing." Bring back the days when they at least pretended to be asked to run.

[Pollster]

It's creepy for a politician to actually use the punditese word "eyeing." Bring back the days when they at least pretended to be asked to run.

I was going to say....I don't remember the last time I heard somebody who wasn't a beltway reporter use the term "eyeing" like that. Really weird stuff.