AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Landslide Lyndon]

I honestly still expected Trump to choose Lake as his VP, but I guess she wouldn't be running unless she was informed that it's not happening anymore.

He will probably be talked into choosing another, more electable woman (Haley, Noem), just like in 2016 when he wanted Christie but was persuaded by Manafort & co. to pick Pence instead.

[Zedonathin2020]

I honestly still expected Trump to choose Lake as his VP, but I guess she wouldn't be running unless she was informed that it's not happening anymore.

He will probably be talked into choosing another, more electable woman (Haley, Noem), just like in 2016 when he wanted Christie but was persuaded by Manafort & co. to pick Pence instead.

Trump is too arrogant to chose somebody based on electability, I still say he chooses good ol’ Marge Greene.

[Oppo]

I honestly still expected Trump to choose Lake as his VP, but I guess she wouldn't be running unless she was informed that it's not happening anymore.

The primary is in August so she could still switch races

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1653871799308894208

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

,3* loser

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I honestly still expected Trump to choose Lake as his VP, but I guess she wouldn't be running unless she was informed that it's not happening anymore.

He will probably be talked into choosing another, more electable woman (Haley, Noem), just like in 2016 when he wanted Christie but was persuaded by Manafort & co. to pick Pence instead.

Lmao Trump.is not picking Haley.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is beating Gallego he is Latino, Cruz was vulnerable because of ALLRED otherwise he would be safe Kean tried to defeat MENENDEZ in 2006:and lost and Kean is targeted in 23 H race and you see what happened to Demings and Rubio's

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1653871799308894208

lol I love it

[CookieDamage]

My prediction:

Gallego: 48
Lake: 44
Sinema: 8

[brucejoel99]

My prediction:

Gallego: 48
Lake: 44
Sinema: 8

Very similar here:

Gallego: 47
Lake: 43.3
Sinema: 8.3
Libertarian: 1.4

[Comrade Funk]

Republicans seem so willing to just throw this race away.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Republicans seem so willing to just throw this race away.

As far as republicans are concerned they haven’t lost a race since November 2020. Why stop their “winning” strategy

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary. Masters isn't interested, he's likely going to wait for Gosar to retire and run for that seat. Hamadeh is also considering it but he's said he won't run if Lake does.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego isn't losing this rave he is Latino, how did MENENDEZ survive 2006 with Kean Jr he was pro immigration reform just like GALLEGO and so was Rubio, Cruz and Hawley and Scott are vulnerable because Rod Joseph, ALLRED and Kunce are good Candidates just like Presley is competitive in MS an R 22 state I told AZ Iced Tea this many times

Gallego has a 50 plus Approvals like Rubio he is only polling below 50 due to Sinema

He has lead in every polls , not 1 poll has him losing

[Pollster]

So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary.

Splitting the MAGA vote in the primary is the best - and possibly only - path the mainstream party leadership really has going forward to address the candidate quality mess. See the Kansas 2020 primary as a prime example of this.

It's obviously not fool-proof (didn't work in Pennsylvania in 2022) and is not a systemic solution nor a sustainable one in the long-term, and it requires significant energy, investment, and perfectly-choreographed moves to get it right, but will be interesting to see if its used effectively this cycle (right now it looks like its not - the strategy instead seems to be recruiting more mainstream self-funders).

[Vosem]

So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary.

Splitting the MAGA vote in the primary is the best - and possibly only - path the mainstream party leadership really has going forward to address the candidate quality mess. See the Kansas 2020 primary as a prime example of this.

It's obviously not fool-proof (didn't work in Pennsylvania in 2022) and is not a systemic solution nor a sustainable one in the long-term, and it requires significant energy, investment, and perfectly-choreographed moves to get it right, but will be interesting to see if its used effectively this cycle (right now it looks like its not - the strategy instead seems to be recruiting more mainstream self-funders).

Well, depends on if MAGA candidates (here meaning ones similar to Lake) are getting stronger or weaker in the long run; Arizona specifically has long had a pretty intense divide between, let's say, a conspiracy wing and a non-conspiracy wing, and the former has never actually eclipsed 50% in a contested 21st-century statewide primary. (Lake won by 5 points, 48-43, in the midst of an unusual primary turnout surge for 'conspiracy wing' candidates, whose repetition feels at least uncertain). They've also long had problems uniting in the absence of Trump endorsements.

Almost as a rule in the Trump era, 'candidates who win primaries narrowly because of Trump endorsements, then lose the general election', do not win repeat primaries. (Kris Kobach and Katie Arrington come to mind, as do others on the House level). They do sometimes successfully run for lower offices, though (again, Kris Kobach and John Gibbs come to mind). In that sense, Lake winning a primary after her losing her first bid would be a pretty unusual event. (Also, Lake triggered an attempt at unifying around a consensus anti-Lake, which was really unusual in GOP primaries -- nothing like this happened to even quite controversial Trump choices elsewhere, like Herbster or Vance or Oz). So I am skeptical of Lake winning a primary here in 2024, though I'm sure a poll conducted now would show her winning purely through name recognition. (Also, Lamb is if anything a deeper conspiracy-wing candidate than Lake, and there really isn't room for two of them in a single primary.)

The PA-Sen 2022 primary is an extremely strange one because you could argue with a straight face that any of the top three candidates were the MAGA candidates; Oz had the Trump endorsement, Barnette had the conspiracy-theorizing, but McCormick had the on-the-ground MAGA support and actual, like, support pattern. (There was also a regionalist aspect to that where Oz ran stronger in eastern PA and McCormick ran stronger in western PA). That primary in particular feels really hard to draw conclusions from that apply to Arizona. (Also, like, Oz deliberately tried to appeal to more educated voters in the primary! While having the Trump endorsement! The race had really unique patterns.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego has lead in every poll with all Rs, AZ is Safe D

Did Rs see that jobs reports Ds aren't losing 303 with 3 percentage pts Approval Rs act like it's 10 percent

[Pollster]

So far only Mark Lamb has announced so far, KTR is considering it and its possible she jumps in. As for Kari Lake I think its possible but her running could split the MAGA vote between Lamb and makes it much easier for KTR to win the primary.

Splitting the MAGA vote in the primary is the best - and possibly only - path the mainstream party leadership really has going forward to address the candidate quality mess. See the Kansas 2020 primary as a prime example of this.

It's obviously not fool-proof (didn't work in Pennsylvania in 2022) and is not a systemic solution nor a sustainable one in the long-term, and it requires significant energy, investment, and perfectly-choreographed moves to get it right, but will be interesting to see if its used effectively this cycle (right now it looks like its not - the strategy instead seems to be recruiting more mainstream self-funders).

Well, depends on if MAGA candidates (here meaning ones similar to Lake) are getting stronger or weaker in the long run; Arizona specifically has long had a pretty intense divide between, let's say, a conspiracy wing and a non-conspiracy wing, and the former has never actually eclipsed 50% in a contested 21st-century statewide primary. (Lake won by 5 points, 48-43, in the midst of an unusual primary turnout surge for 'conspiracy wing' candidates, whose repetition feels at least uncertain). They've also long had problems uniting in the absence of Trump endorsements.

Almost as a rule in the Trump era, 'candidates who win primaries narrowly because of Trump endorsements, then lose the general election', do not win repeat primaries. (Kris Kobach and Katie Arrington come to mind, as do others on the House level). They do sometimes successfully run for lower offices, though (again, Kris Kobach and John Gibbs come to mind). In that sense, Lake winning a primary after her losing her first bid would be a pretty unusual event. (Also, Lake triggered an attempt at unifying around a consensus anti-Lake, which was really unusual in GOP primaries -- nothing like this happened to even quite controversial Trump choices elsewhere, like Herbster or Vance or Oz). So I am skeptical of Lake winning a primary here in 2024, though I'm sure a poll conducted now would show her winning purely through name recognition. (Also, Lamb is if anything a deeper conspiracy-wing candidate than Lake, and there really isn't room for two of them in a single primary.)

The PA-Sen 2022 primary is an extremely strange one because you could argue with a straight face that any of the top three candidates were the MAGA candidates; Oz had the Trump endorsement, Barnette had the conspiracy-theorizing, but McCormick had the on-the-ground MAGA support and actual, like, support pattern. (There was also a regionalist aspect to that where Oz ran stronger in eastern PA and McCormick ran stronger in western PA). That primary in particular feels really hard to draw conclusions from that apply to Arizona. (Also, like, Oz deliberately tried to appeal to more educated voters in the primary! While having the Trump endorsement! The race had really unique patterns.)

Yeah, really good points all around especially on PA. PA also lists the home county of candidates on the ballot which makes voting intensely regionalized especially in crowded fields.

Interesting note on the "candidates who win primaries narrowly because of Trump endorsements, then lose the general election do not win repeat primaries" phenomenon - I do wonder if that will continue in post-election denial GOP primaries.

[miles prower]

How would Paul Gosar do?

[SnowLabrador]

How would Paul Gosar do?

It really depends on how much of the vote Sinema takes, and from whom.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How would Paul Gosar do?

Awful.  He might finish third.

[Zedonathin2020]

How would Paul Gosar do?

Would be so awful that it would be the only way that Sinema gets over 10% of the vote

[Devout Centrist]

Well, depends on if MAGA candidates (here meaning ones similar to Lake) are getting stronger or weaker in the long run; Arizona specifically has long had a pretty intense divide between, let's say, a conspiracy wing and a non-conspiracy wing, and the former has never actually eclipsed 50% in a contested 21st-century statewide primary.

So-called conspiracy Republicans winning contested primaries *at all* is a recent development; you have to go back to someone like Evan Mecham to find an appropriate parallel statewide and he won due to a split opposition. It's clear that what we might call the True Believer wing of the party is ascendant. A decade ago, Kelli Ward and her political brethern were a joke in this state. This is not the case anymore.

You can actually track their ascedance through recent Republican primaries (and increasingly less quixotic challenges to incumbent Republicans statewide). J.D. Hayworth got less than a third of the vote against a wounded John McCain in the 2010 Republican Senate Primary. Ward did better, earning nearly 40% in 2016. Then in 2018, Ward and Arpaio took 45% of the combined vote in the Senate primary. By 2022, the True Believers combined for over 50% of the vote in the Senate primary and just under 50% in the gubernatorial primary.

(Lake won by 5 points, 48-43, in the midst of an unusual primary turnout surge for 'conspiracy wing' candidates, whose repetition feels at least uncertain).

This was *after* virtually every other establishment and movement conservative candidate dropped out. If the other two factions couldn't combine to take down Lake, that says a lot more about them than it does about Lake and her ilk.

They've also long had problems uniting in the absence of Trump endorsements.

This is going to be less of a problem for them as the True Believers gobble up a larger and larger share of the Republican primary electorate. The trends do not look good for the likes of Robson.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/FWIWnews/status/1655893932339871744

Has she decided to run as the de facto Republican like Lieberman in 2006?