AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[The Mikado]

Woman walks on stage, carrying a gasoline canister and a pack of matches.

Audience member A: Holy s**t, she's gonna light herself on fire!
Audience member B: There's still three hours left in her act, don't hurry her, we don't know where she's going with this.

Woman on stage starts juggling gasoline can, spraying gasoline everywhere on the stage, including small amounts on herself.

Audience Member A: Holy s**t, she's gonna light herself on fire! The entire stage will burn down!
Audience Member B: You're rushing to conclusions! We don't know where she's going with this! She's got hours to turn this around.

Woman on stage puts tip of gasoline canister to her lips, drinking the remaining gasoline.

Audience Member A: Holy s**t, not only is she gonna light herself on fire, she's gonna poison herself too! That is toxic!
Audience Member B: She has a plan, I'm sure of it! We're just not smart enough to see where this act is going yet.

Woman on stage grabs matchbook, placing an unlit match in her teeth.

Audience Member A: Holy s**t, we're ALL GONNA DIE! THIS CRAZY LADY WILL KILL US ALL!
Audience Member B: You worry too much, things like this always work their way out.

Woman on stage begins unsuccessfully trying to ignite match, striking it again and again. A spark seems inevitable...

I was saying this over a year ago, btw. This woman will never change. This is who she is. People kept saying that she'd reverse course and be OK in a primary, but she was never going to do that. That's simply not who she is.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Saw on twitter that Lake is recommending Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb to run for Senate..apparently this dude is another Finchem. tbh I wonder whether Arizona has highest number of RW lunatics per capita among all the states.

there's a study out there that people who live in cooler temperatures are more level-headed and calm. AZ being the opposite would explain some things.

[free my dawg]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

[Torie]

Did Stanton really just casually reveal that his internal polling was looking into primarying her

That's hilarious

That was why he released the poll. He does not want Gallego to get all the attention.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Saw on twitter that Lake is recommending Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb to run for Senate..apparently this dude is another Finchem. tbh I wonder whether Arizona has highest number of RW lunatics per capita among all the states.

there's a study out there that people who live in cooler temperatures are more level-headed and calm. AZ being the opposite would explain some things.

(OFF-TOPIC)

When we really got into the warm months of late spring down in Texas, my high school definitely saw an increase in fights and physical scuffles -- and not just in the males. 

[Torrain]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Sinema Verity.

[Blair]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.

And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.

I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.

And as we've learnt from other states (not sure what the specific AZ rules are) you generally need to have a good padding in case the signatures get challenged.

[LabourJersey]

I'm at a hardcore show now so I'll say more when I get home/sober up but one thing I think is being underdiscussed is who exactly is Sinema going to get her campaign funds from? Corporate PACs aren't enough and probably won't even be interested, they like to back winners. Maybe she can get some hoping to keep influence for the rest of her current Senate term but those can only go so far with fundraising limits. And who is going to go doorknock for her?

People have no idea what they're talking about on financing campaigns anymore. You're absolutely right. People think "big money" is, well, big. It really, really isn't, in the age of ActBlue etc. It's wild how many people haven't noticed Dems outraising/outspending Rs basically everywhere ever in 2018, 2020, and 2022...and Indies have it much worse than Rs. Gallego will likely outraise her 5X or more every quarter, and the R will be way ahead of her as well. There is no ActBlue or WinRed for an independent candidate.

And you mentioned doorknocking, but, like I said in the other thread, she needs 42k signatures to get on the ballot. She'll need to pay signature gatherers, and they are expensive. No volunteers will touch this.

I think if she tries she PROBABLY gets on the ballot, but it's FAR from a sure thing.

And as we've learnt from other states (not sure what the specific AZ rules are) you generally need to have a good padding in case the signatures get challenged.

Imagine if a Michigan-style sgnatures scandal kept Sinema off the ballot!

[Holmes]

Well, the Republican Party will probably want Sinema to be on the ballot, so I can envision some behind the scenes assistance with signature gathering.

[Mr. Smith]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Imagine if it was the current title for this thread!

[Torrain]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Imagine if it was the current title for this thread!

The Sinematic Universe?

Surely that's too egotistical even for... hold on, you might have a point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, the Republican Party will probably want Sinema to be on the ballot, so I can envision some behind the scenes assistance with signature gathering.

Not if the polls show her siphoning more votes from them.

[Schiff for Senate]

Your next big Fox News contributor, friends.

I imagine her eventual Fox show is going to have a truly terrible Sinema/cinema pun.

Imagine if it was the current title for this thread!

The Sinematic Universe?

Surely that's too egotistical even for... hold on, you might have a point.

They've got a show called "Watters World," haven't they? All these show hosts are just egoistical airheads anyway, so Sinema (and for that matter Tulsi, who filled in for Tucker one night IIRC) would fit in quite well.

[Xing]

Well, the takes about Sinema being a brilliant electoral juggernaut that Democrats needed to back in order to win sure aged well. Anyway, not only is it the case that a decently left-wing Democrat absolutely can win in Arizona if they run a good campaign, there’s something else that makes this saga so pathetic. As a progressive, I’ll acknowledge that Sinema could’ve been a “moderate hero” while not being nearly as obnoxious and attention-seeking, and would be in perfectly good shape for re-election. But no, she had to make a fool of herself and show unbelievably bad political instincts. Turns out that having abysmal approval ratings among members of your own party and going out of your way to piss them off doesn’t help your re-election prospects.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Well, the takes about Sinema being a brilliant electoral juggernaut that Democrats needed to back in order to win sure aged well. Anyway, not only is it the case that a decently left-wing Democrat absolutely can win in Arizona if they run a good campaign, there’s something else that makes this saga so pathetic. As a progressive, I’ll acknowledge that Sinema could’ve been a “moderate hero” while not being nearly as obnoxious and attention-seeking, and would be in perfectly good shape for re-election. But no, she had to make a fool of herself and show unbelievably bad political instincts. Turns out that having abysmal approval ratings among members of your own party and going out of your way to piss them off doesn’t help your re-election prospects.

I'm not even sure if she knows what she's trying to accomplish.

What I really liked about her in her 2018 campaign was that she was pretty humble and chill, but otherwise a normal moderate D, and now she's just doing all these stunts and is very obviously trying to attract attention.

Here is the 2018 Senate debate. She just feels so different and like more genuine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKp8X8UY3mU

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I think hurts Sinema in this case is the fact she was a social worker. I feel like that has def influenced her speaking style to make it very poised, relatively monotone, and generally calm. While generally this might be something that works in her benefit as I'd argue it did in 2018, when your unpopular politician who gets tons of media coverage, that sort of thing can really make you just seem so disconnected and robotic.

I've never heard Sinema really raise her voice or yell back and in a way I kind of want her to, which is messed up.

In many ways, Sinema is actually a very effective Senator and if she optic-ed herself differently, she could probably get away with still opposing the filibuster and stuff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One thing I think hurts Sinema in this case is the fact she was a social worker. I feel like that has def influenced her speaking style to make it very poised, relatively monotone, and generally calm. While generally this might be something that works in her benefit as I'd argue it did in 2018, when your unpopular politician who gets tons of media coverage, that sort of thing can really make you just seem so disconnected and robotic.

I've never heard Sinema really raise her voice or yell back and in a way I kind of want her to, which is messed up.

In many ways, Sinema is actually a very effective Senator and if she optic-ed herself differently, she could probably get away with still opposing the filibuster and stuff

You do realize Tammy Baldwin is Lesbian and she beat Tommy Thompson she purposely became an Indy because Gallego it will be harder to win a 3 way than a primary , that's why GALLEGO hasn't announced yet because if he loses his career is over like Tim Ryan that's why Rs would love for him to get in

He is gonna wait until the Rs find a candidate and will evaluate the race then, if he feels he can't win a three way he won't run

The  Rs would love to pickup this seat in a three way that's why they want GALLEGO to challenge Sinema

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying that Gallego won't run there are other ways to get to 52/48 Secular Trifecta without Gallego that's FL with Sancrainte and TX with John Love, the EC map goes thru TX and FL anyways and polls are showing that Border issue is losing steam over voters that voters are now supporting amnesty for migrants why because COVID  is going down only in nursing homes community living are persons dying from Covid it's still deadly but we are fully open, HIV is the deadly disease but it's mostly a female disease but men can still get it

Also, Rick Scott isn't Rubio, Rubio won by 20 solely based on Cuban and Scott has won all his races by 1 percent because he is an average Joe that's why DeSantis is losing to Biden he won with the help with Rubio, he won barely when he ran with Rick Scott look at the polls I posted Biden is up on DeSantis and Trump by 4 because Gas prices are 40 a barrel

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing I think hurts Sinema in this case is the fact she was a social worker. I feel like that has def influenced her speaking style to make it very poised, relatively monotone, and generally calm. While generally this might be something that works in her benefit as I'd argue it did in 2018, when your unpopular politician who gets tons of media coverage, that sort of thing can really make you just seem so disconnected and robotic.

I've never heard Sinema really raise her voice or yell back and in a way I kind of want her to, which is messed up.

In many ways, Sinema is actually a very effective Senator and if she optic-ed herself differently, she could probably get away with still opposing the filibuster and stuff

She literally went to bat to defend the GOP tax cuts - you know, the ones that were passed in 2018 on a party-line vote and that even Joe F**king Manchin was willing to repeal. Her problem isn't optics, her problem is that she's consistently shilled for billionaires and sabotaged every attempt at progressive legislation.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

The other thing here is that both Gallego and Stanton are likely to prove broadly acceptable to most Democrats.  So you’re unlikely to see a ton of left-wing protest votes against Stanton or a ton of moderate protest votes against Gallego assuming a reasonably competent campaign and no major unforeseen skeletons in the closet.  Even a Stanton vs. Gallego primary isn’t gonna leave the loser’s supporters going “screw this, now I’m voting for Sinema.”  She’s too widely despised to even make a good protest vote option.

[Galeel]

I don't think Sinema really has any base. She will get <5%, if she even runs in the first place.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There isn't anyone running yet for D primary so we just have to wait and see TX Senate is gonna be more competetove than FL because we lost TX by 11 and FL by 2o, why because FL is a Cuban state and the other states that have Latinos in it have Mexicans

If you go to FL it's Little Havana if you go anywhere else its Mexico City with Tacos, but let's wait until all the Candidates are DECLARED , the Prez race is gonna be close though Biden is leading Trump in FL but as I have always said split VOTING you can have TX voting red for Prez blue for Sen and FL voting Blue for Prez and Red for Senate why because there are Latinos that still want PR statehood, that's why my signature is the way it is but Gallego is more likely to be the D nominee but we shall see, why is Gallego so popular he is Tim Ryan both are friends but Latinx

[coloradocowboi]

Sinema's only hope is if the democrats nominated someone like Martin Quezada and republicans nominated Andy Biggs/Mark Lamb. Then she could successfully frame herself as the "sane" option. If the democrat is a generic democrat like Stanton or even an establishment friendly progressive like Gallego she's doomed

The other thing here is that both Gallego and Stanton are likely to prove broadly acceptable to most Democrats.  So you’re unlikely to see a ton of left-wing protest votes against Stanton or a ton of moderate protest votes against Gallego assuming a reasonably competent campaign and no major unforeseen skeletons in the closet.  Even a Stanton vs. Gallego primary isn’t gonna leave the loser’s supporters going “screw this, now I’m voting for Sinema.”  She’s too widely despised to even make a good protest vote option.

People who claim that Gallego is "too far left" are especially in for a rude awakening.

I also think Stanton is too. He wouldn't go far in a primary. What's the argument? He's slightly more palatable to conservatives? I dk if that's even true. If anything, it's following the Kyrsten Sinema logic that being a moderate hero just entails taking more money from divisive industries unpopular with our base.