AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Skill and Chance]

I have no idea why Schumer would let her keep her committee assignments. She's a consistent problem for him and this latest stunt will do little to endear her to him. We still have the majority without her, so who cares?

You let her keep his assignments as long as she still caucuses with you, because if she caucuses with you that means you control every single committee and can finally start moving nominations forward without relying on discharge petitions.

In addition to the discharge petition issue, there's also the fact that you can lose control of a 50/50 senate at any time if the wrong person gets sick.  If she's willing to stay with you on organizational votes and support most of your nominees (no indication she won't), better to stay in her good graces than to send her to the Republicans.  

[prag_prog]

There were some signs in last few months that something like this would happen. Apparently she didn't even campaign or support most of the Dems running in AZ. She didn't even endorse Hobbs. Kelly was the only person she endorsed.

She is just so weird. It's not like she is popular with Independents in AZ either..she is underwater with them too. Also saw some people complaining that she doesn't even hold townhalls or her office doesn't respond easily. She just has allienated decent chunk of AZ electorate but also has now put Dems in an extremely tough spot. If Sinema runs as an independent and Dems nominate a candidate, there is a good chance Rs win the seat..just a nightmare scenario for AZ Dem party

[prag_prog]

lol

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1601200432747270144

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She says she is still a Democrat and it doesn't change the balance of power

[Not Me, Us]

Genuine question but

Do we think Sinema is actually happy being a Senator?

She doesn't really seem to like or enjoy most aspects of being a politician, be it attending caucus meetings or calling stakeholders or doing basic relationship maintenance with state party officials. She doesn't like the press. She's chummy with business groups but my impression is she rarely meets with outside orgs as a whole. I guess she still does townhalls but those are probably pretty curated; she isn't just going to sit there and deal with a bunch of "angry activists."

What aspects of the job do she actually enjoy, or make her happy.

Even with voting, she's been very adamant in the past that her schedule is her schedule and if she has to leave suck it up.

Does she even enjoy this.

I don't understand how anyone could not enjoy being a Senator. It's one of the easiest jobs in the world, all the hard work is done by staffers. It comes with a great salary and some of the best benefits of any job. The only cushier job would be an ambassadorship to some tropical island nation.

[Senator Incitatus]

Everyone discussing whether she can win a three-way race for re-election and not whether she can tank Biden by running independently for President with billions in hedge fund dollars.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Everyone discussing whether she can win a three-way race for re-election and not whether she can tank Biden by running independently for President with billions in hedge fund dollars.

Sinead would get less than 1 percent of the vote and most of that would be from republicans if she ran for president.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I didn't vote for Sinema in 2020, but she most likely has my vote in 2024 unless the GOP puts a solid candidate up.

No one did.

[pppolitics]

Had Biden and Kelly lost AZ, Sinema might have a case that Democrats need to put up with her, but that's clearly not the case.

[prag_prog]

Sinema has really put Dems in a tough position now...wish we can get some new polling data on how a hypothetical 3 way matchup with Sinema as Indie would look like

[President Johnson]

Sinema has really put Dems in a tough position now...wish we can get some new polling data on how a hypothetical 3 way matchup with Sinema as Indie would look like

Is she even going to run? I find that increasingly hard to believe. She also might take more votes from the Republican, especially if they nominate another wacko like Ms. Lake.

[wbrocks67]

There were some signs in last few months that something like this would happen. Apparently she didn't even campaign or support most of the Dems running in AZ. She didn't even endorse Hobbs. Kelly was the only person she endorsed.

She is just so weird. It's not like she is popular with Independents in AZ either..she is underwater with them too. Also saw some people complaining that she doesn't even hold townhalls or her office doesn't respond easily. She just has allienated decent chunk of AZ electorate but also has now put Dems in an extremely tough spot. If Sinema runs as an independent and Dems nominate a candidate, there is a good chance Rs win the seat..just a nightmare scenario for AZ Dem party

This is the thing... like she goes out of her way to be this way when she doesn't have to be. That's what confounds me. She ignores the media (for the most part, besides days like today). She ignores her constituents. She chummies up to GOP senators. Like she could mostly vote the way she wants to and still be like a Mark Kelly but without the disdain for half of her constituents. Like most of this is of her own making.

[coloradocowboi]

I should also note I’ve worked for Kyrsten Sinema on 3/4 of federal campaigns, and known her personally since she came to speak at the CWA at CU Boulder in 2010. What people really need to know about her is that she has no ideological agenda besides egotism and thinking she’s the best. Even when she was a “progressive”, she was totally self obsessed and actually more annoying cuz she was more strident and preachy. Ultimately she’s a fake who believes nothing except that she’s the best. Personally, I think this tendency manifests in her pro rich ppl policies. She has finally become the elite she always wanted to be, no need to make it more complicated that that.

And you’d be surprised who would be exactly like her if they had her level of arrogance/the false assurance of running in a swing state.

[forsythvoter]

I don't think this announcement is particularly surprising at all. It's pretty clear Ds increasingly disdain Sinema and she has better approvals among Rs than Ds but isn't popular enough to win a R primary given the AZ Reps' primary track record. To stay a senator, becoming an I makes a lot of sense.

As for whether this move enables Sinema to survive, that's harder to say. Gallego seems determined to run and Sinema's single digit approvals among Ds suggest that he's probably going to consolidate that 30% of the vote, so I she needs a path to win at least 35% + 1 (a majority of the remaining 70%) of the vote.

I think her best path to 35% is Rs putting up a sacrificial lamb (which given Senate control is on the line, I think this is highly unlikely) so that she becomes the defacto R candidate, or Rs putting up a controversial candidate (more plausible given recent history) so that Sinema can combine enough moderate Rs and Is to come out with a plurality.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There were some signs in last few months that something like this would happen. Apparently she didn't even campaign or support most of the Dems running in AZ. She didn't even endorse Hobbs. Kelly was the only person she endorsed.

She is just so weird. It's not like she is popular with Independents in AZ either..she is underwater with them too. Also saw some people complaining that she doesn't even hold townhalls or her office doesn't respond easily. She just has allienated decent chunk of AZ electorate but also has now put Dems in an extremely tough spot. If Sinema runs as an independent and Dems nominate a candidate, there is a good chance Rs win the seat..just a nightmare scenario for AZ Dem party

Why would someone so unpopular with Democrats and independents be a threat to the Democratic candidate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema has really put Dems in a tough position now...wish we can get some new polling data on how a hypothetical 3 way matchup with Sinema as Indie would look like

Is she even going to run? I find that increasingly hard to believe. She also might take more votes from the Republican, especially if they nominate another wacko like Ms. Lake.

White females prefer SSM over men because it's more accepting to be Lesbian than gay due to sports but those athletes are rich and women marry them for love as well as money

Why do you think the majority of homeless are single blk men they are unmarried they are poor that don't have wives, some of them do make it but most of them don't because teenage pregnancy went down and poor black men stop having kids

They said WARNOCK improved with White female because SSM passed after Eday of SSM passed before Eday Vance would have lost and Johnson they were the weakest R Sen Candidate out there

Baldwin, Lesbian beat Tommy Thompson and Sinema is very close to Baldwin and Gallego might not challenge her he may stay in H if he loses his political career is over like Tim Ryan that's why he won't make a decision before the end of 23, not 22, but Rev Barber wants him to run

[Ben.]

I don't think this announcement is particularly surprising at all. It's pretty clear Ds increasingly disdain Sinema and she has better approvals among Rs than Ds but isn't popular enough to win a R primary given the AZ Reps' primary track record. To stay a senator, becoming an I makes a lot of sense.

As for whether this move enables Sinema to survive, that's harder to say. Gallego seems determined to run and Sinema's single digit approvals among Ds suggest that he's probably going to consolidate that 30% of the vote, so I she needs a path to win at least 35% + 1 (a majority of the remaining 70%) of the vote.

I think her best path to 35% is Rs putting up a sacrificial lamb (which given Senate control is on the line, I think this is highly unlikely) so that she becomes the defacto R candidate, or Rs putting up a controversial candidate (more plausible given recent history) so that Sinema can combine enough moderate Rs and Is to come out with a plurality.

Another key factor is who is going to bank roll any Independent campaign - candidates like Lieberman and Orman could both count on GOP and Dem aligned donors respectively, unless one party bows out Sinema is on her own re fundraising.*

*One possibility is that GOP donors back her as a spoiler, but given where she might draw support from that seems unlikely.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My main issue with Sinema isn’t about whether she’s progressive or moderate or an I caucusing with Ds, but just the fact she doesn’t seem to have a coherent ideology or set of values, or at least they change from day to day. Anytime she does a rare interview, she comes off as fake or scripted, and seems to want to fit this mold of “moderate hero” rather than just doing what she believes is right as a legislator.

I think some of the work she’s done on these bipartisan bills should be commended. She just needs to be more direct, and honestly she’s lost too much trust to the point where she isn’t going to get it back.

I actually feel like some of the things she says, specifically like that government needs to be more about working for the people than beating the other side is important, but she just goes about it all wrong and ends up being a hypocrite to her own ideas

[prag_prog]

This guy was Deputy Director of Biden's AZ campaign and worked in AZ politics for a while

https://twitter.com/tcani/status/1601222657931780096

https://twitter.com/tcani/status/1601222659672449025

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/dcg1114/status/1601204674954424320?s=20&t=YsaltoTIPQ59rT...

Bizarrely wouldn't polling like this suggest she actually potentially draws more Republicans or Republican-leaning independents than she would Democrats in an independent bid?

These numbers (if accurate) suggest she has no path in a three-way race and at least on the surface would take more right-leaning votes than left-leaning votes. Especially if AZ Republican primary voters produce another superstar nominee who will be prone to losing some Republican voters, I'm not yet seeing how she has boxed out Gallego/the left like many are saying she has unless she is able to drastically turn around these numbers in a way that improves her standing with independents while paradoxically losing Republican support.

I'm going to state what appears to be the elephant in the room to me, but everyone else has collective memory loss. Does nobody remember the tale of Jeff Flake?

Sinema seems to be unintentionally walking her predecessors path despite being from a different party and holding different ideals. Both seem to think/have thought that bipartisanship is their path to reelection in a swing state. They know the McCain-ites, the compassionate suburban Mormans, and other R turning D demos are key.

Both however don't know haw to be bipartisan. Flake was a phony who spoke publicly against Trump but fell in line when voting time came, pissing off the desert radical Goser-types with his speachs but won only tiny amounts of Democratic affinity since he still was and behaved like a Republican. Sinema similarly publicly gets into spats prominent Dems and progressives, plummeting her approval among Dems. But it doesn't earn much GOP support cause she is still Sinema, a Liberal "alphabet" woman who at times looks like their stereotypes. Both ended up with only moderates they set out to persuade supporting them, and in a theoretical RCV situation where they are everyone's second choice but almost nobodies first choice.

Flake retired, cause he knew he couldn't win a GOP primary vs the radicals. Sinema has now become a I, effectively accepting Democratic approval and electoral support as a lost cause. But todays Arizona GOP won't be so accepting. Retirement therefore looms if the paths remain the same.

[KaiserDave]

Very obvious that Sinema and her hedge fund donors were hoping for a 50-50 tie so she could make maximum drama. Too bad, so sad! Thank you Rev!

[Roll Roons]

It sounds like she'll continue to caucus with Dems:
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1601256495169298432?cxt=HHwWgIDTzY2T57...

[Beet]

It sounds like she'll continue to caucus with Dems:
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1601256495169298432?cxt=HHwWgIDTzY2T57...

So in one day she's gone from being a Democrat In Name Only to a Democrat In All But Name. Nice.

[CookieDamage]

I definitely think the D nominee is gonna be Gallego. Sinema is not gonna get many GOP votes and will certainly not peel off D votes.

I could see both major party nominees getting 40 to 45% while Dinema gets maybe up to 10 or 15%. Nobody likes her in AZ and as an Indie there's no reason to vote for her.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It sounds like she'll continue to caucus with Dems:
https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1601256495169298432?cxt=HHwWgIDTzY2T57...

Not necessarily.  Dems would keep their majority on committees and subpoena power regardless, as it would still be 50-49.  They just need her not to caucus with Republicans.