AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Atlas Force]

If Gallego does go for it who could run for his House seat? Is the current mayor of Phoenix (his ex-wife) too obvious an answer?

[free my dawg]

I think Sinema is going to try to run as a Republican, her moves in the past year just make no sense otherwise. I doubt she could win a GOP primary though, even with establishment R support.

Maybe if DeSantis wins the primary and puts his support behind her, though. Otherwise Sinema is toast - she’s DOA against Gallego in a Dem primary.

Sinema vs Gallego in 2024 would be a pure tossup imo, Gallego would be Lean D against anyone else (Schweikert maybe?).

She voted twice to convict Trump. She is DOA in a Republican primary.

I don't think she cares about her political prospects. She's already checked out to her inevitable lobbying job.

[MargieCat]

If Gallego does go for it who could run for his House seat? Is the current mayor of Phoenix (his ex-wife) too obvious an answer?

Reginald Bolding?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I think people on this forum are all underestimating Sinema. 2 years in politics is super long.

The crazy thing is too that Sinema doesn't need to be this way. She can still do the whole "bipartisan work is important, etc." without being so off-putting to Dems. Mark Kelly just won by 5 points by still maintaining the "independent" mantle despite voting with Dems nearly all of the time. Arizona clearly doesn't have a problem with it. She's just making things worse for herself. But yeah, she can still turn this around if she stops being so obstructionist.

I do wonder about her involvement this year. I wonder if it was more of her not caring at all to help, or if they thought she'd be more of a hinderance? It does speak volumes though that she couldn't at least tweet a few times for Hobbs/Kelly or something. She didn't need to be by their side the whole time, but the fact that she did *nothing* it seems is pretty striking, and kinda shows that she's still refusing to be a team player.

How much is she fundraising behind the scenes? I thought I heard she's a prolific fundraiser for Democratic campaign committees, and that's part of why Schumer still stands, unflinchingly, by her.

No. But again, it doesn't really matter.

I actually like Sinema quite a bit, but Mark Kelly is a fundraising juggernaut and he did perfectly fine.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm surprised Regina Romero hasn't gotten a lot of buzz. She's a Latina so she'd do pretty well with the state's hispanics and she's the mayor of Tucson, the state's second largest city, so she'd be able to drive up the margin in Pima county.

[The Mikado]

FWIW I don't think she runs again and if she does she loses 70-30 in the primary. She's totally unwilling to adjust her strategy and she bet on Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs losing so she could say "I'm the only one who can win in AZ." Kelly winning by like 4.9 and Hobbs winning statewide against a candidate the GOP hailed as super strong makes it clear Dems don't need whatever she's doing to win in AZ.

Sinema has shown literally zero inclination to trim her sails or change course. She did this stuff straight for four years and has burned a lot of institutional bridges already, and she has zero constituency in AZ. The DSCC and Biden would sit on the sidelines, which alone is enough to doom her at this point.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm surprised Regina Romero hasn't gotten a lot of buzz. She's a Latina so she'd do pretty well with the state's hispanics and she's the mayor of Tucson, the state's second largest city, so she'd be able to drive up the margin in Pima county.

I could see her run for Grijalva's seat when he retires.

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW I don't think she runs again and if she does she loses 70-30 in the primary. She's totally unwilling to adjust her strategy and she bet on Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs losing so she could say "I'm the only one who can win in AZ." Kelly winning by like 4.9 and Hobbs winning statewide against a candidate the GOP hailed as super strong makes it clear Dems don't need whatever she's doing to win in AZ.

Sinema has shown literally zero inclination to trim her sails or change course. She did this stuff straight for four years and has burned a lot of institutional bridges already, and she has zero constituency in AZ. The DSCC and Biden would sit on the sidelines, which alone is enough to doom her at this point.

Good point. With the way she's been acting, it doesn't seem like she really cares about her re-election prospects all that much and/or just has a very misguided view of what makes someone "electable" or not.

I do wonder on the inside though if she genuinely sees herself as a maverick or is just trying to stir the pot for the sake of it? I don't mind her bucking her own party, but unlike say McCain, she's never clear about where she stands on issues overall or what alternative solutions could be for something.

[Schiff for Senate]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

He won by double-digits. Of course, the non-Schweikert vote was split between two candidates and had it been consolidated, Schweikert most likely wouldn't have made it. He also seems to have ethical controversies surrounding him IMO, which would make him vulnerable in the GE (though I'm honestly not sure how much it'd really matter - it doesn't seem to impact the results in his House races very much, and it seems like something most people don't really remember or care too much about, though maybe the Democrats would slam him on it in a Senate race and make it an issue).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

He won by double-digits. Of course, the non-Schweikert vote was split between two candidates and had it been consolidated, Schweikert most likely wouldn't have made it. He also seems to have ethical controversies surrounding him IMO, which would make him vulnerable in the GE (though I'm honestly not sure how much it'd really matter - it doesn't seem to impact the results in his House races very much, and it seems like something most people don't really remember or care too much about, though maybe the Democrats would slam him on it in a Senate race and make it an issue).

Of the entire AZ R delegation, the only one who wouldn't suck in a statewide GE would prolly be Ciscomani, but he's new, and good chance Dems knock him out come 2024.

[Schiff for Senate]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

He won by double-digits. Of course, the non-Schweikert vote was split between two candidates and had it been consolidated, Schweikert most likely wouldn't have made it. He also seems to have ethical controversies surrounding him IMO, which would make him vulnerable in the GE (though I'm honestly not sure how much it'd really matter - it doesn't seem to impact the results in his House races very much, and it seems like something most people don't really remember or care too much about, though maybe the Democrats would slam him on it in a Senate race and make it an issue).

Of the entire AZ R delegation, the only one who wouldn't suck in a statewide GE would prolly be Ciscomani, but he's new, and good chance Dems knock him out come 2024.

What about Lesko? Or Crane? Though I don't know much about either (especially Crane).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder who the Republicans run. David Schweikert? Andy Biggs?

Kelli Ward, Kari Lake, or Peter Thiel’s newest twink.  Maybe Charlie Kirk runs.

Schweikert can barely win his own district’s primary, let alone a statewide one.

Tbh, the Ducey wing will probably try to get Ciscomani to run. He checks off a lot of boxes and isn’t crazy.

He won by double-digits. Of course, the non-Schweikert vote was split between two candidates and had it been consolidated, Schweikert most likely wouldn't have made it. He also seems to have ethical controversies surrounding him IMO, which would make him vulnerable in the GE (though I'm honestly not sure how much it'd really matter - it doesn't seem to impact the results in his House races very much, and it seems like something most people don't really remember or care too much about, though maybe the Democrats would slam him on it in a Senate race and make it an issue).

Of the entire AZ R delegation, the only one who wouldn't suck in a statewide GE would prolly be Ciscomani, but he's new, and good chance Dems knock him out come 2024.

What about Lesko? Or Crane? Though I don't know much about either (especially Crane).

Nope. They’re both too far right and just don’t seem to be able to even make themselves appear competent these days.

[Ljube]

Sinema is not running in 2024. I’m almost positive. If she is then she has the worst political instincts imaginable

Why wouldn't she just switch parties instead?

We know she can't win the Dem primary, but the GOP primary could be fixed for her.
She would have no problem winning in the general running as a Republican.

[xavier110]

Sinema is not running in 2024. I’m almost positive. If she is then she has the worst political instincts imaginable

Why wouldn't she just switch parties instead?

We know she can't win the Dem primary, but the GOP primary could be fixed for her.
She would have no problem winning in the general running as a Republican.

Mark fricking Brnovich and Doug Ducey couldn’t win a GOP primary in 2022, but Sinema somehow could in 2024. Are you for real?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Also is Sinema really at much risk for losing a primary challenge? In 2014 winter McCain was like net -20 with Republicans. AZ GOP censured him and his opponent was a right wing base candidate Kelli Ward (sound familiar). In the end though he ended up winning his primary election with 51% of the vote. Primarying out a sitting senator is much harder than it seems.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also is Sinema really at much risk for losing a primary challenge? In 2014 winter McCain was like net -20 with Republicans. AZ GOP censured him and his opponent was a right wing base candidate Kelli Ward (sound familiar). In the end though he ended up winning his primary election with 51% of the vote. Primarying out a sitting senator is much harder than it seems.

Sinema doesn't have the national profile of McCain who was a fixture of Arizona politics for decades.
And Gallego isn't a nutjob like Ward.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also is Sinema really at much risk for losing a primary challenge? In 2014 winter McCain was like net -20 with Republicans. AZ GOP censured him and his opponent was a right wing base candidate Kelli Ward (sound familiar). In the end though he ended up winning his primary election with 51% of the vote. Primarying out a sitting senator is much harder than it seems.

Yes, she has virtually no path to victory in the primary or the GE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reverand Barber is actively recruiting Ruben Gallego to challenge Sinema so I thinks it's a go but he said he won't make a decision before the end of 2023

We can afford to lose Sinema and Manchin as long as Brown, Tester, Warnock and Gallego win and it's a 218/217 DH and 51/50 S, the H obviously favors Ds regardless of whether Speaker McCarthy gets to 218 or not they don't have the votes to launch a Partisan impeachment against Biden and if they did it will hurt NE and CA Rs even moreso than they are vulnerable now

[Spectator]

Surprised no one has mentioned the level of weight that Katie Hobbs will now have in the primary. She was the successor to Sinema in the state legislature and Hobbs has spoken fondly of her in the past. I have to imagine her increased level of prominence as the Governor now could help Sinema were Hobbs to back her. Same with Kelly, but probably to a lesser extent since Governor is more visible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Surprised no one has mentioned the level of weight that Katie Hobbs will now have in the primary. She was the successor to Sinema in the state legislature and Hobbs has spoken fondly of her in the past. I have to imagine her increased level of prominence as the Governor now could help Sinema were Hobbs to back her. Same with Kelly, but probably to a lesser extent since Governor is more visible.

Would Hobbs be considered a more moderate or mainstream Dem? To me it seems like she's ideologically near Kelly, slightly left of Sinema, but is just rlly chill as a person overall, at least in how she presents herself publicly.

[MargieCat]

Surprised no one has mentioned the level of weight that Katie Hobbs will now have in the primary. She was the successor to Sinema in the state legislature and Hobbs has spoken fondly of her in the past. I have to imagine her increased level of prominence as the Governor now could help Sinema were Hobbs to back her. Same with Kelly, but probably to a lesser extent since Governor is more visible.

I feel like Governor Hobbs would remain neutral and avoid making an endorsement in a Sinema vs. Gallego primary.

I could see Senator Kelly staying neutral or endorsing Sinema.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gallego said he isn't making a decision before the end of 23 not 22 stop worrying about a primary that hasn't even happened yet, it's not 24 yet it's barely 23 and we have a long time before KY Gov race

Just like users assumed just because we lost red states in 22 we are gonna lose them forever and that's not true Stein is winning in NC and Beasley lost

Beshear can win because guess what Laura Kelly won Incumbents are winning just like Brown has a better chance than Ryan not because he is immortal DeWine isn't on the ballot Trump or DeSantis aren't gonna win by 20 that's the only reason why Ryan lost if he ran in 24 he would win

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1601170707375083520

Welp....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ruben GALLEGO doesn't have to primary her he can be the D nominee

[David Hume]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216

“I keep my eye focused on what I’m doing right now. And registering as an independent is what I believe is right for my state. It’s right for me. I think it’s right for the country,” she said, adding that “politics and elections will come later.”

Sinema said she’s not sweating how any future changes in Senate control affect her work. “Partisan control is a question for the partisans,” she said, “and not really one for me.”