2023 Japan Unified local elections

[jaichind]

For the election for the mayor of 福井市(Fukui City) it seems the anti-establishment candidate is slightly ahead per exit polls over the LDP-CDP-KP-DPP-backed candidate.  The anti-establishment candidate has a DPJ background but has since joined forces with JRP but it seems CDP and DPP chose to join forces with LDP-KP to back the sitting Deputy mayor in what now seems to be a possible losing effort.

Exit polls show that LDP-KP mostly backed the establishment consensus candidate while opposition parties (CDP JRP DPP JCP) backed the pro-JRP DPJ background opposition candidate.  It seems enough LDP-KP voters voted for the opposition candidate to give him the overall edge.

[jaichind]

There is an election tomorrow for the ward head of Tokyo's 江東区(Koto City).  Given the recent LDP scandals, it would be a good litmus test of how much damage LDP has taken.  The race is 5 independents but you can go by who is supporting them.

LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP
Center Left-JCP
JRP
Post-YP (local successor to YP which had merged into TPFA only to split out again)
LDP rebel

I would have thought that the LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP candidate would beat out the Center Left-JCP by 5-10 points but with the scandals, it would be interesting on how the vote would be splintered tomorrow.

With 36% of the vote in it seems to be a 5-way tie.  At this stage, the vote report is mostly about reporting thresholds so the final result may have significant vote share gaps but we do now know that all 5 candidates will get significant vote share.

[jaichind]

Despite exit polls to the contrary NHK calls the 福井市(Fukui City) mayor race for the LDP-CDP-KP-DPP establishment candidate.  The current count is 50/50  but I guess the outstanding vote most lean establishment.

[jaichind]

LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP candidate called winner by NHK for ward head of Tokyo's 江東区(Koto City).   

[jaichind]

Ward head of Tokyo's 江東区(Koto City) (97% in)

LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP          35.0%
Center Left-JCP             21.1%
Post-YP                         18.6%
LDP rebel                      17.6%
JRP                                7.7%

JRP and Center Left-JCP underperformed while LDP-KP-TPFA-DPP outperformed.

The LDP Abe faction funding scandal does not seem to have led to a meltdown in LDP support.

[jaichind]

福井市(Fukui City) mayor election (all in)

LDP-CDP-KP-DPP      51.3% (establishment consensus)
pro-JRP opposition    48.7%

[jaichind]

FNN poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval falling to 22.5/71.9

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/877a97bfbd20e4512a432f8e20baf3a23f2838db

JNN asked all 99 members of the LDP Abe faction to confirm or deny that they'd received kickbacks from fundraising parties.   4 said No.  37 did not respond. 58 said `I will confirm the facts and respond appropriately.''

[jaichind]

DPP nominates 鳩山紀一郎 (Hatoyama Kiichiro), son of former DPJ PM Hatoyama, to run for DPP in Tokyo 2nd.  鳩山紀一郎 (Hatoyama Kiichiro) is a researcher although there has been talk of him entering politics for quite a while now.

[jaichind]

NHK poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 23/58


It also has LDP support crashing 8.2 to 29.5

[jaichind]

The 青木方程式(Aoki Index) of this government (cabinet approval + support for the ruling party) is now very close to crashing through 50 which would be the threshold when the government will fall despite the will of the PM to go on.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve which seems like was stabilizing is dropping again on the Abe faction funding scandal.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/c8f3165817d7da73d996d8d517e48316103b3c0b

An unnamed member of the Abe faction says that the fundraising party kickback scams have been going on in the Abe faction for the last 20 years.

[jaichind]

The FNN poll on best PM has Kishida at 2.5.  Even former PM Suga is at 4.2


4 years ago when Abe was PM his number was at 18.2 in the same poll.  Note that Kishida in 2019 was at 2.7 when he was not that well known which is higher than today.

[jaichind]

The 青木方程式(Aoki Index) of this government (cabinet approval + support for the ruling party) is now very close to crashing through 50 which would be the threshold when the government will fall despite the will of the PM to go on.

Latest average 青木(Aoki) Index.  As I said, it is getting close to the critical 50 mark.

[jaichind]

NHK party support by age May vs Dec

May


Dec


The dropoff in LDP support is correlated with age with large losses with young voters but not much with older voters and none with 80+ crowd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida can't catch a break...

[Octowakandi]

The FNN poll on best PM has Kishida at 2.5.  Even former PM Suga is at 4.2


4 years ago when Abe was PM his number was at 18.2 in the same poll.  Note that Kishida in 2019 was at 2.7 when he was not that well known which is higher than today.

Wait, is that Ishiba at 18%? Isn't he out of politics?

[Lachi]

Ishin voted FOR the CDP no-confidence motion in the Chief Cabinet Sec. interestingly, and may also vote for the new CDP no-confidence motion in the Kishida govt itself that is being submitted tomorrow.

[jaichind]

Wait, is that Ishiba at 18%? Isn't he out of politics?

He is not although I do think he will not run for LDP Prez again and is more likely to back Kono or Koizumi Junior.

[jaichind]

Japan's word of the year: 税 or Tax due to the expected Kishida tax increase to fund an increase in military spending he promised Biden.  Of course, given his political position this might get delayed.

[Lachi]

Ishin will be voting in favour of the no confidence motion against the Kishida government.

[Lachi]

The motion failed as expected, vote is 288-167 against. However, the yes number is the highest number of yes votes in a no-confidence motion in a govt since the one against Koizuimi in 2004

[Dr. Cynic]

Kishida can't catch a break...

That he's lasted this long is like a small miracle. Kishida's cabinet rating has consistently been in the toilet, and you'd think that Taro Kono or someone like that would be starting to gather support from the factions. I cannot believe that they're perfectly content to keep him into the next election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kishida can't catch a break...

That he's lasted this long is like a small miracle. Kishida's cabinet rating has consistently been in the toilet, and you'd think that Taro Kono or someone like that would be starting to gather support from the factions. I cannot believe that they're perfectly content to keep him into the next election.

One has to wonder if there's a sense that not wanting to sit on the hot seat has led to them biding their time.