Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/giselefetterman/status/1592564382235754496?cxt=HHwWgIDQ0cW39...

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I will say is that Valadao isn’t outperforming Mueser but much in Kings County. If Valadao does win, it’s prolly gonna be a similar situation to NY where top of the ticket Dems dropped the ball, especially in the Central Valley. In his own right Valadao isn’t reviving the same sort of over-performance he saw in 2020 at all.

[lfromnj]

One thing I will say is that Valadao isn’t outperforming Mueser but much in Kings County. If Valadao does win, it’s prolly gonna be a similar situation to NY where top of the ticket Dems dropped the ball, especially in the Central Valley. In his own right Valadao isn’t reviving the same sort of over-performance he saw in 2020 at all.

I mean Salas is a way better candidate than TJ Cox.

[Yoda]

Atlas should not Shrug...

Haha nice

I was gifted that book when I was 18 and I liked it. Not my fav book in the world, and I didn't run around recommending it to everyone like I do with favorites of mine, but I enjoyed it and felt some sympathy with the main character and respected his philosophy.

Years later, when I became aware of Ron and then Rand Paul and Ayn Rand's novels became a hot topic due to being at least partly a source of their libertarian philosophy, I was kinda confused. I don't identify with the Paul's politically. Like, at all. I find Rand especially to be an absolutely insufferable hypocrite. Most libertarians were born on third and think they hit a triple.  Yet here I had enjoyed this book but had seemingly taken away a completely different lesson from it than most others readers had.
Did I completely miss some central themes to the book having read it in my youth? Possible, but I was reading some advanced s*** from a very young age due to being the youngest of a family of nine and there always being adult reading material around. Like Tom Clancy novels when I was not yet in 5th grade.

Ah, well. Perhaps I'm reading into it too much and you can simply enjoy a book without agreeing with the author's fundamental worldview. Also I haven't read it in forever so don't remember too much detail.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Does Trump's announcement make Warnock more likely to win in the runoff?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Does Trump's announcement make Warnock more likely to win in the runoff?

Yes.

[Roll Roons]

When are we getting an update on CO-03?

[Schiff for Senate]

Just realized we’ll have another Indian-American in Congress - Shri Thanedar (D-MI), rags to riches, born and raised in the motherland - which is certainly a positive development.

It’s so annoying that we won’t get to keep the House because idiot judges in NY and CA decided to engage in unilateral disarmament and throw out gerrymandered maps

CA? The voters here made a smart decision and got an independent commission to do the line-drawing ahead of the 2010 redistricting. And a wise move that was too - we were locked in an ugly bipartisan gerrymander where the winners were the incumbents and the losers were CA voters: out of 53 districts, we literally got zero competitive ones! In 2004, 50/53 seats saw one party winning over 60% - just three remotely competitive ones. In 2006, 2008, 2010, I don't need to tell you that a ton of districts flipped around nationally - well over 100 altogether. In CA, how many flipped between those three cycles? Just one (in 2006, a seat flipped blue - in 2008, no seats flipped, and in the big red wave year of 2010, where the GOP picked up a whopping 63 seats, they flipped zero in CA). Finally, the voters spoke up and decided they were done being stomped on and basically not having their votes matter at all, having zero competitive seats in the entire state. And so we got an independent commission that's done its job, and screwed over incumbents in both parties roughly equally. And, as per usual, in their "bipartisan gerrymander", Democrats were underplaying their hand - we netted 4 seats in 2012, the first cycle using fair boundaries rather than extremely ugly and gerrymandered ones (if you think the current maps are ugly - and they kind of are - some of the districts in the 2000s were much worse).

And Wikipedia makes a valid observation - the reverse of what happened in NY, happened in NC. We got a fair map - or, if anything, let's be honest, a slightly D-biased one - rather than a gerrymander by legislative Republicans (and thus, we picked up 2 seats and the GOP lost one).

I struggle to see how NC as the "reverse" of NY is a good analogy. NC has been a very evenly split state in many recent statewide contests. NY votes overwhelmingly democratic in the vast majority of it's statewide votes. A split Congressional delegation in NC is in no way a "favorable" map for democrats, but a NY map that gives republicans 11 seats to democrats' 15 is wildly favorable to republicans.

A.) The GOP did have a very good night in NY - they lost the governor race by just 5 points, and won a number of seats that went comfortably for Biden. The map wasn’t “wildly favourable” to the GOP in NY - the environment (thanks in no small part to Zeldin and his masterful campaign) was. Saying the final NY map was an R gerrymander just because the GOP had a very good night with them is honestly like saying OH and PA - neither of which were D gerrymanders AT ALL - were D gerrymanders because the Democrats won all the competitive seats in both states (PA was in fact similar to NY - a strong gubernatorial candidate had coattails in the House races).
B.) Take it up with Wikipedia - they made the comparison, not me. And they’re not wrong: they are comparing only insofar as to say that in NY and NC, gerrymanders were struck down by state courts and fair maps, thanks to which the other party gained seats. And absolutely zilch of that is false. Democrats had a potent Democratic gerrymander in NY that was replaced by a reasonably fair map, and thanks to that, the GOP did quite well (much better than they would’ve with the Democratic map - Democrats would definitely have won over 15 seats had that been in place). Whereas in NC, the R-controlled legislature attempted yet another R gerrymander, only for it to  blow up in their faces (just as the NY map blew up for the Democrats) as it was struck down by the courts and replaced by fairer maps that resulted in a 7-7 split.
C.) I will concede that after further consideration, I suppose NC’s map really was fair and wasn’t D biased at all. 7-7 is hardly an unfair outcome when one of the D wins was an upset.

[lfromnj]

It’s so annoying that we won’t get to keep the House because idiot judges in NY and CA decided to engage in unilateral disarmament and throw out gerrymandered maps

CA? The voters here made a smart decision and got an independent commission to do the line-drawing ahead of the 2010 redistricting. And a wise move that was too - we were locked in an ugly bipartisan gerrymander where the winners were the incumbents and the losers were CA voters: out of 53 districts, we literally got zero competitive ones! In 2004, 50/53 seats saw one party winning over 60% - just three remotely competitive ones. In 2006, 2008, 2010, I don't need to tell you that a ton of districts flipped around nationally - well over 100 altogether. In CA, how many flipped between those three cycles? Just one (in 2006, a seat flipped blue - in 2008, no seats flipped, and in the big red wave year of 2010, where the GOP picked up a whopping 63 seats, they flipped zero in CA). Finally, the voters spoke up and decided they were done being stomped on and basically not having their votes matter at all, having zero competitive seats in the entire state. And so we got an independent commission that's done its job, and screwed over incumbents in both parties roughly equally. And, as per usual, in their "bipartisan gerrymander", Democrats were underplaying their hand - we netted 4 seats in 2012, the first cycle using fair boundaries rather than extremely ugly and gerrymandered ones (if you think the current maps are ugly - and they kind of are - some of the districts in the 2000s were much worse).

And Wikipedia makes a valid observation - the reverse of what happened in NY, happened in NC. We got a fair map - or, if anything, let's be honest, a slightly D-biased one - rather than a gerrymander by legislative Republicans (and thus, we picked up 2 seats and the GOP lost one).

I struggle to see how NC as the "reverse" of NY is a good analogy. NC has been a very evenly split state in many recent statewide contests. NY votes overwhelmingly democratic in the vast majority of it's statewide votes. A split Congressional delegation in NC is in no way a "favorable" map for democrats, but a NY map that gives republicans 11 seats to democrats' 15 is wildly favorable to republicans.

The NY Map has 5/26 Trump seats +1 Biden seat that barely voted for him in Suffolk county. That is a base of 6 districts. Once you get past these seats the next seat is Biden +5, then +7,then +10 etc and further. The NY map if anything was actually a pretty solid map for Democrats trying to hold the house in a close election like this one as R's would probably only win 6 seats. However that would assume uniform state by state swing. In this case the wave actually did hit New York unlike all those other states, so R's instead have 11 seats and have won the house by 2-3 seats instead of losing it.

NY this year voted more like a D+10 state, so overall a 11-15 split lines up relatively close to what one expects with such a split.

I also maintain the NC map was a gerrymander made by Sam Wang to fulfill the partisanship requirements while being little better than what the legislature proposed in other categories. The purpose of said map was to minimize the number of competitive seats in an expected wave election before a redraw. The legislature's map meanwhile did the opposite, as it maximized the number of competitive seats.

[NOVA Green]

Porter wins todays OC batch, 54-46.

She's now back up to 3700 districtwide.

How is she doing in the Asian precincts. Just curious

Irvine is like 45% Asian and a mixture of Chinese, Korean, and South Asian Indian. Porter's seat doesn't really have much of the OC "Vietnamese belt" so frequently commented upon.  But if you want the map, OC county has a tool to break down any race:



Porter is green.

Irvine, Asians and students and academics, and Laguna Beach, gays and artists, versus Huntington Beach (surfers and muscle cars) and Newport Beach (rich boat people), with Costa Mesa mixed. It is a CD of high SES voters mostly, who don't have much in common. I spent a fair amount of time "commuting" from Laguna Niguel to Laguna Beach. 

It is indeed a beautiful and extremely mixed and diverse district within OC.

Remember flying down to visit my Dad, who had just recently relocated from NorCal to SoCal, and taking him around the joint, while I was still going through a full blown Cocaine addiction back in the '03s- '05s.

Took him down to pretty much all of those cities and places, which he had never been before, since at that point he had only been living there for a few years as a single guy living in a small two bedroom apt outside of Seal Beach.

But yeah--- interesting district and love your "Old Skool" references.

Weird thing is that I tried to take him to the surfing museum in Newport Beach, but the museum was closed.

Guess there might have been some good waves at the time???

[Dani Rose]

Does Trump's announcement make Warnock more likely to win in the runoff?

The best gift he's ever given the Reverend.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Polis is now up by 19.3%, only a little bit short of DeSantis's 19.4%.

One was launched to frontrunner status, while the other has been immediately been struck down as a terrible pick amongst Atlas users. Polis was a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and gay, so it is interesting why the Democrats don't like him.

[AnOdyssey]

Which Senate seat in 2024 would be more likely for Democrats to pick up?

[Dani Rose]

Polis is now up by 19.3%, only a little bit short of DeSantis's 19.4%.

One was launched to frontrunner status, while the other has been immediately been struck down as a terrible pick amongst Atlas users. Polis was a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus and gay, so it is interesting why the Democrats don't like him.

I, for one, would be ecstatic to have him as President, but I'm not totally sure he'd fly with the electorate at large even now. I feel like the strongest non-Biden ticket there is, at present, is Whitmer/Warnock (or vice-versa), but I would be overjoyed to be proven wrong about Polis' GE strength.

[NOVA Green]

Here are photos of the Kern County portion of CA-22. Biden won it by 20 and even Newsom won it by 9 in 2018. It basically contains no white suburbs of Bakersfield (which are super R and high turnout). This is why I'm skeptical that Salas will only be up by 5 here in the end, since it's not like a case where low Hispanic turnout would allow white suburbs to swing things hard right, and also the Kern County portion mirros a lot of Sala's state Senate district directly.

This will be close.

Bumping this for NOVA Green.

Old man eyes...

So Blue are DEM '22 House numbers and Red are PUB '22 House numbers?

If so basically we are looking at TO numbers by precinct within Kern County, and Bakersfield looks like it is swinging DEM?

[bagelman]

Atlas should not Shrug...

Haha nice

I was gifted that book when I was 18 and I liked it. Not my fav book in the world, and I didn't run around recommending it to everyone like I do with favorites of mine, but I enjoyed it and felt some sympathy with the main character and respected his philosophy.

Years later, when I became aware of Ron and then Rand Paul and Ayn Rand's novels became a hot topic due to being at least partly a source of their libertarian philosophy, I was kinda confused. I don't identify with the Paul's politically. Like, at all. I find Rand especially to be an absolutely insufferable hypocrite. Most libertarians were born on third and think they hit a triple.  Yet here I had enjoyed this book but had seemingly taken away a completely different lesson from it than most others readers had.
Did I completely miss some central themes to the book having read it in my youth? Possible, but I was reading some advanced s*** from a very young age due to being the youngest of a family of nine and there always being adult reading material around. Like Tom Clancy novels when I was not yet in 5th grade.

Ah, well. Perhaps I'm reading into it too much and you can simply enjoy a book without agreeing with the author's fundamental worldview. Also I haven't read it in forever so don't remember too much detail.

Lolz.. don't want to distract nor hijack the thread, and quite frankly never read any of the Kook's books.

Still, way back a couple years after first lurking on Atlas Forum, we and my GF (Spouse now) spent a really awesome (3) day vacation in Coos Bay Oregon in a Hot Tub Suite for my B-Day.

Already got bottles of Champagne purchased prior to arrival.

Needless to say, we and my current wife spent my B-Day in the Hot Tub, sipping Champagne watching a crazy '08 PUB debate, where Ron Paul actually seems like the most sane PUB on the stage.

Fast forward an election later, Ron Paul is running for PRES in '12 and then we were living in the Bay Area.

Hitting a farmers market area on a Saturday shopping day in Palo Alto, while living in Cupertino, next thing you know we got a ton of college students from Stanford approaching everyone on the main drag asking people to sign petitions so that Ron Paul can run from PRES as an Indy!

Still, as someone who first started lurking in Atlas around '05-'07, and then first stared posting in '08, the whole Libertarian meme thing exploded with Ron Paul, with all sorts of memes, even before they were actually an Atlas thing back in the dayz...

But yeah, still find it curious why this site is named "Atlas Forums"...

Named after the US Election Atlas that Dave Leip created, Atlas Forum is implied short for US Election Atlas Forum. "Atlas" is used here as a collection of maps and charts, which is its normal definition.

[Politics Fan]

When are we getting an update on CO-03?

Tomorrow

https://www.cpr.org/2022/11/14/lauren-boebert-adam-frisch-race-update-colorado-3rd-congressional-district/

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Does Trump's announcement make Warnock more likely to win in the runoff?

The best gift he's ever given the Reverend.

Aside from, of course, giving him the seat in 2021…

[Spectator]

Peltola still on track to hit 49% before RCV.

With an Alaska update looming, I’m looking to see if Peltola 1st round can overtake the Palin + Begich first round combined vote. I think there’s a decent shot at it if Alaska late ballots remain Dem-favorable this year like the past. She currently only trails their combined vote by 7,500.

At least 40k expected today, so Peltola would need to get around 58 or 59% of today’s update to get there.

Looks like Peltola ended up getting 56.7% of yesterday’s total drop. Just shy of what she’d need to avoid RCV after the Libertarian is eliminated. Remaining ballots still expected to be very blue, so still an outside shot of Peltola doing it.

[Pericles]

The odd thing about the Senate elections was that most of the targeted Democratic seats weren't actually that close-Kelly and Fetterman are up by mid single digits and Hassan high single digits. It may be that candidate quality was a big factor, and it looks like there was a big gap with the House popular vote. Maybe then Republicans could have had a wave in the House while only barely winning the Senate. That is not a result that would be expected from the partisanship of the seats.

However Democrats won most competitive races at all levels of the ballot, so it is hard to tell what the 'national environment' exactly was. It would be interesting to see how the margins for Senate and House compared within swing House districts.

[Annatar]

The odd thing about the Senate elections was that most of the targeted Democratic seats weren't actually that close-Kelly and Fetterman are up by mid single digits and Hassan high single digits. It may be that candidate quality was a big factor, and it looks like there was a big gap with the House popular vote. Maybe then Republicans could have had a wave in the House while only barely winning the Senate. That is not a result that would be expected from the partisanship of the seats.

However Democrats won most competitive races at all levels of the ballot, so it is hard to tell what the 'national environment' exactly was. It would be interesting to see how the margins for Senate and House compared within swing House districts.

One of the big themes of the election was Republican senatorial candidates consistently running behind the Republican congressional vote total in multiple states, Georgia is one example of that, Pennsylvania is another adjusting for uncontested seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay, so the GOP has 219 seats in the bag, and more likely 220 or 221 with an outside shot at 222. That's a small spread but it actually could make a big difference. Having 1 vote to spare would make McCarthy's leadership virtually nonexistent - having 4 to spare gets him in much more comfortable territory given the Speaker's powers.

That being the case, it's hard to overstate just how pathetic my old home state is at counting votes. You can throw out all the usual excuses you want, but at the end of the day they're just that - excuses. The state has simply not been willing to put in the resources needed to properly run its elections (just as it doesn't put in the resources needed to run schools or infrastructural projects). The old saying goes that you have to pick two between getting something done well, getting it done cheap, and getting it done fast. It's clear that California has chosen the first two, and while that's not as bad as if it had chosen the last two, it's still utterly shameful. Democracy is not something to be done "on the cheap" - it should be afforded all the funding necessary to effectively count votes on the very day in which they are received. California's failure to do so is further proof that it is barely above failed-state status, and the idea that it would make a functional country in its own right sure seems fanciful.

Anyway, I've heard a lot of mixed reporting as to why today's Kern drop was so terrible for Salas. I really hope it was an outlier and the next ones will deliver the margins to overtake Valadao, but I haven't really seen anything to convince me that it will, so I'm going to try to temper my expectations. Hopefully at least CA-13 holds strong. It would be ridiculous if Republicans swept the Central Valley all of a sudden.

[Antonio the Sixth]

On another note, MacDonald hasn't updated his estimate of the turnout in a week. Do you know if he's planning to? I feel like we should have a much better sense of the final figure now than we did then.

[jamestroll]

Like in VA-02 and Virginia Beach in which late balloting pushed the Democrat through, the final ballots pushed Wexton through on top in the Prince William County portion of her district.

The final combined vote there will be 59% Dem to 40% GOP. Not wonderful, but not bad at all. Also, I believe Biden's approval in VA was better in Nov 2021 compared to now.

[patzer]

Which Senate seat in 2024 would be more likely for Democrats to pick up?

Texas is likelier than Florida imo