Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Sestak]

AZ-06 will be an R hold. No change on AZ-01 outlook.


Looks like either 215 or 216 Democratic seats (216 if they pick off Schweikert or Calvert, 217 on the off chance they pick up both).

[philly09]

Votes from somewhere just came in - Hobbs increased her lead to about 36.2K (from like 32.9K)

Impact on AZ01 or AZ06 ??

Ciscomani is now 1,617 votes ahead.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Votes from somewhere just came in - Hobbs increased her lead to about 36.2K (from like 32.9K)

Impact on AZ01 or AZ06 ??

Ciscomani is now 1,617 votes ahead.

What had it been?

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/klobustan/status/1591876653885820929 thank goodness this bullsh**t is over.

[Tekken_Guy]

Re: the AZ-GOV ultimate vote. Hobbs +1.0 sounds about right. She's been running about ~4.2% behind Kelly (oscillates between 4.1-4.3 depending on the dump), so I would expect him to end up around ~5.0  give or take, so for Hobbs I would think around ~1.0 give or take

Is that enough to save Mayes or Hoffman?

[wbrocks67]

12K were county-wide, how many from AZ-06?

[MillennialModerate]

That’s ballgame in Arizona 06 right? That would make the likely outcome 220-215. Because I don’t see Hodge holding on

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1591916787200819200

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/klobustan/status/1591876653885820929 thank goodness this bullsh**t is over.

tbf I think Sisolak lost because of the lockdowns. But yeah, doesn’t look like it’ll be much of an issue in 2024 either way.

[kwabbit]

So….who wins the house? The forum, pundits on CNN keep saying “the republicans at this point are favored to take the house” yet we have Chris Bouzy who was dead on with this predictions says Ds will retain the house with 219 seats.

NYT has 211 R 204 D

It seems like Calvert's seat is the tipping point and there's not much reason to think he's going to lose. Bouzy needs to have either Boebert or Garcia losing to get to 219 D and their races are basically over.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Votes from somewhere just came in - Hobbs increased her lead to about 36.2K (from like 32.9K)

Impact on AZ01 or AZ06 ??

Ciscomani is now 1,617 votes ahead.

What had it been?

1.4–1.5k, I believe.

[wbrocks67]

Re: the AZ-GOV ultimate vote. Hobbs +1.0 sounds about right. She's been running about ~4.2% behind Kelly (oscillates between 4.1-4.3 depending on the dump), so I would expect him to end up around ~5.0  give or take, so for Hobbs I would think around ~1.0 give or take

Is that enough to save Mayes or Hoffman?

Mayes is running about 0.6% behind Hobbs, so if Hobbs gets +1.0, Mayes would be at about +0.4.

Hoffman is running 1.2% behind Hobbs, so she really needs Hobbs to win by at least 1.2% overall. Mayes seems like she'll eke it out most likely. Hoffman will be a real nailbiter I think

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1591916787200819200

Ugh. I was hoping I was wrong but if he gained from Pima. That’s it

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1591916787200819200

Damn, how much is left in the district from Pima? Not what Engel wanted from that batch I assume

[😥]

After that AZ-06 update 220-215 R is the most likely outcome. I'd much rather have Democrats in the majority, but we are where we are

[Gracile]

Engel is done if this trend continues.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1591916787200819200

Damn, how much is left in the district from Pima? Not what Engel wanted from that batch I assume

Still 11% left to count, according to NYT, but I'm not sure if that's reflective given how jurassically slow they've been. If the last dump or two are better, Engel can still take it.

[wbrocks67]

Pima batch = 11,802
Hobbs 7,074 (60%)
Lake 4,728 (40%)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Holding Rs under 220 would have been really sexy, but at least they’ll almost certainly end up with fewer seats than Ds won in 2020.

[Roll Roons]

Pima batch = 11,802
Hobbs 7,074 (60%)
Lake 4,728 (40%)

In light of that, it's pretty crazy that Ciscomani actually won this batch and he's now a pretty clear favorite given how he's running so far ahead of the top of the ticket.

[MillennialModerate]

I think there are 41k left in PIMA

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Will Kevin McCarthy be able to handle a caucus of 220 or 221? I wanted him to have 218 or 219 so he couldn't function.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would caution against assuming Smith has definitively lost.

[wbrocks67]

From what I remember, there was at least 53K Pima out before todays update, so I think there's at least ~41K then left in the county. Though could be more, b/c the county's estimated total the other day was higher than Archer's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChristySmithCA/status/1591883164003495936

Nobody should have to wait weeks for the election result.

Brazil could call the election in just hours.

Brazil uses entirely electronic voting.  You good with that?