Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

None of the Dem agenda will come up for a vote, though, if the GOP is in the majority.  So that wouldn't matter.

Why would Liberal Republicans not vote for Pelosi for Speaker ?
They only need 1 Republican to jump ship on that vote and there are plenty of candidates.

     Why would they run as a Republican if they were to turn around and vote for a Democrat to be Speaker? Personnel votes like that tend to fall neatly along partisan lines. No politician worth their salt will just instantly backstab the party that worked to get them elected.

I mean some of the newbees wouldn't do it. But others have electoral incentives, and if they are given extraordinary powers like chairmanship of a big committee, who knows. Same with some Dems. We are in position right now for unusual gamesmanship to avoid the chamber getting procedurally deadlocked.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

How many days till the slaughter?

[Torrain]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

The instinct to look at any election, let alone this particular cycle, and say “our team won, here’s an itemised list as to why that’s bad” is a part of hard-left discourse that I will just never understand.

[wbrocks67]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

I mean, I trust Oregonian to not screw this up theoretically, but it still seems a bit premature. Given what is left, you would expect the Clackamas batch to likelier be blue (given Wyden and Kotek performance there right now too), but who knows. Also seems like there is still some from closer to Portland in that district too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591153128061403136?s=20&t=Y0WC48W...
Speaking of AZ-06, but this is a drop in the bucket in terms of votes.

Cochise was 59-39 Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

How many days till the slaughter?

It's very funny that forumlurker is basically just ignoring of all the nonsense he spewed leading up to this election.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Based on NYT data this would be my ranking

Tossup, but Democrats slighty favored
213. CA-13
214. WA-03
215. AZ-01

Pure Tossup
216. CA-22
217. CA-41

Tossup, but Republicans slightly favored
218. AZ-06 (median seat)
219. CA-27

Republicans are heavily favored in these districts
220. CA-03
221. OR-05
222. CA-45
223. NY-22
224. CO-03

So by my estimates 218-217 R is the most likely outcome, but we'll see, as I always say

CA-27 and CA-45 are both at ~60% now, and amazingly Steel’s lead is still 4% smaller than Garcia’s. Both should be D-leaning based on presidential partisanship, but SoCal is generally more R downballot, Smith is a particularly flawed challenger, and Steel has dirty (non-English misinformation) campaign tactics + incumbency on her side.

At this point I’d say CA-13 is Lean D, WA-3 is a tossup, and your tossups are Lean R. Would love to be wrong on any of these races though!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

How many days till the slaughter?

The part he didn't tell us what this it was his own reputation that would get slaughtered.

[wbrocks67]

It's kind of shocking that the R in the AG race isn't performing worse? I mean I know he's not on Finchem levels, but the guy is like 30 years old isn't he? The fact that he's thisclose to becoming a state Attorney General with so little experience is pretty frightening.

[😥]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

No, OR-05 is a premature call for Republican just like CO-08 was a premature call for Democrat. And as we know CO-08 ended with Democrat, so OR-05 can also end with Republican, but it is not sure thing yet

[Nerd]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

Almost all the vote left is from Pima County. Still think Ciscomani is favored, but when the AP called I think they made the assumption the remaining batches of votes would break similar to 2020 which has so far not been true. Also in the 2 counties fully in so far Ciscomani is narrowly underrunning Trump's margin.

It's kinda ridiculous how they called this but not AZ-04, where Stanton is very clearly going to win re-election no matter what the remaining Maricopa dumps yield.

I don't get this.  There's currently 114k ballots out of Pima.  Of the currently counted, 208/306k are in CD-6.  Of the early ballots counted in Pima, Engel has won them by 61.1% or roughly 22.2% margin.  That means Engel will net 17.2 k votes out of Pima, which unless there's some rural surge providing Ciscomani another 12k votes I'd see advantage to Engel?

[Ferguson97]

I think CCM and Warnock are very likely to both win, but can you imagine if we get a 218-217 House and a 50-50 Senate?

[President Johnson]

The one is thing I'm sure about is that McCarthy will not be elected Speaker if House is 218-217 R majority. I even doesn't think he will be able to get Speakership if it 219 or 220 R

Yeah, he was never that popular to begin with. Remember he needed to withdraw in October 2015 when Boehner quit because he couldn't get there when his party had 247 (!) seats. Paul Ryan was just a compromise candidate.

Furthermore, Adam Kinzinger says he believes Trump will throw McCarthy under the bus after the poor Republican showing. Obviously, because Trump needs scapegoats and never takes responsibilities.

I'm not sure whether Scalise would have the votes. One way or another, the speaker election will be messy. When American politics was less polarized back in the day, the might have found some compromise candidate with bipartisan support. That seems questionable this time around.

[pantsaregood]

Every call I don’t like is a premature call.

AZ-SEN was prematurely called in 2020.
CO-03 was prematurely called (and ended up being wrong) this year.

Races can be prematurely called in ways that are favorable to Democrats too. People find you completely insufferable because you have very clear double standards in your reasoning.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Forumlurker, I thought we were gonna behave ourselves and not try to intentionally upset people.

[MATTROSE94]

The one is thing I'm sure about is that McCarthy will not be elected Speaker if House is 218-217 R majority. I even doesn't think he will be able to get Speakership if it 219 or 220 R

Yeah, he was never that popular to begin with. Remember he needed to withdraw in October 2015 when Boehner quit because he couldn't get there when his party had 247 (!) seats. Paul Ryan was just a compromise candidate.

Furthermore, Adam Kinzinger says he believes Trump will throw McCarthy under the bus after the poor Republican showing. Obviously, because Trump needs scapegoats and never takes responsibilities.

I'm not sure whether Scalise would have the votes. One way or another, the speaker election will be messy. When American politics was less polarized back in the day, the might have found some compromise candidate with bipartisan support. That seems questionable this time around.

Maybe Henry Cuellar will be a realistic compromise speaker candidate, as he is a very conservative Democrat with a lot of bipartisan support.

[Mardigroppa]

I'm confused why so many people think AZ-06 is still close to toss-up.  Hasn't the race been called for Ciscomani by the AP?

Almost all the vote left is from Pima County. Still think Ciscomani is favored, but when the AP called I think they made the assumption the remaining batches of votes would break similar to 2020 which has so far not been true. Also in the 2 counties fully in so far Ciscomani is narrowly underrunning Trump's margin.

It's kinda ridiculous how they called this but not AZ-04, where Stanton is very clearly going to win re-election no matter what the remaining Maricopa dumps yield.

I don't get this.  There's currently 114k ballots out of Pima.  Of the currently counted, 208/306k are in CD-6.  Of the early ballots counted in Pima, Engel has won them by 61.1% or roughly 22.2% margin.  That means Engel will net 17.2 k votes out of Pima, which unless there's some rural surge providing Ciscomani another 12k votes I'd see advantage to Engel?

I don't know if this is the same case out there in Pima, but there is the question of how election day drop off ballots will break, how that will skew is another story.

[Hammy]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

Love how they completely gloss over the turnout and margins among Gen Z, minorities, and women

[kwabbit]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level. 

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable. 

It always amazes me how Americans talk so casually about what is basically rigging the election in one’s favor. Doesn’t really matter on which side of the aisle that particular person happens to be.

Fun fact, the PV in NY translates to 14.3 seats for the Ds and 11.5 seats for the Rs. 15-11 and 14-12 is what a fair map should yield most of the time.

Has anyone actually calculated what the results would have been on the original Hochulmander?  With the statewide margins being this unexpectedly close, it seems entirely possible that map could have backfired and given Republicans a majority of the delegation.

They would've flipped the Syracuse seat. I saw that Malliotakis would've narrowly carried the State Island and Park Slope seat anyway. The GOP would've won the four Long Island seats under any configuration. Molinaro would've narrowly lost. One of the lower Hudson districts would be lost.

So the GOP would've ended up with two less seats by my estimation, though they would've lost those two narrowly.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1591132421541351424?s=20&t=4tNpemTjAtF...

     I hope Walker picks up his phone right now and dials up RDS for some campaign stops.

[😥]

Also, I think we will be able to say definitively who will control the House after we see the results of the two Arizona races. Does anyone know when Arizona is supposed to finish counting?

[President Johnson]

In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

This is beyond ridiculous and just promoting a division between wealthier and poor people. Guess what, not all wealthy folks are so self-absorbed and ignorant that they don't want others to be lifted up.

[oldtimer]

Local Newspaper in Oregon has called the OR-5 for Chavez-DeRemer potentially putting the Final nail in the coffin for House Control.
https://twitter.com/OregonianPol/status/1591143483162693641

A part of me almost wants the GOP to win the house. With a majority that slim there might very well be more intraparty chaos than they'd have without one. They won't come out of it looking good. Plus Biden can still probably get Kean/Fitzpatrick/Molinaro for important stuff.

None of the Dem agenda will come up for a vote, though, if the GOP is in the majority.  So that wouldn't matter.

Why would Liberal Republicans not vote for Pelosi for Speaker ?
They only need 1 Republican to jump ship on that vote and there are plenty of candidates.

     Why would they run as a Republican if they were to turn around and vote for a Democrat to be Speaker? Personnel votes like that tend to fall neatly along partisan lines. No politician worth their salt will just instantly backstab the party that worked to get them elected.

I expect there will always be one like Liz Cheney somewhere in the Republican caucus, and they only need 1 switcher.

[Lemmiwinks]

I’ve had every doomer and troll on ignore for months, and as someone who lurks but rarely posts, you all spend way too much time engaging with these people.

OR-05 call seems premature. Wake me up when a national outlet calls it, then we’ll talk.

[gf20202]

Any update on Arizona or Nevada numbers/probabilities?

This thread from D in Arizona explains Hobbs' path pretty well. (Kelly already has it won per @Redistrict.)

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1590923486255779840