Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Holmes]

In case anyone was wondering, Mary Peltola is doing better in the first round results this time in some of the State House districts than she did in the FINAL ROUND in the special, largely concentrated around Fairbanks and the Bush seats. Case in point is that she got 80% of the final round in her native Bethel seat. She’s currently sitting at a dictator-level 84% there. She’s on track to win by double digits after RCV it looks like:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

Oof, looks like Peltola will probably end up winning 28 out of the 40 State House districts. Alaska Goddess Empress Peltola.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not all states are in yet, but I think we might have a contender for the biggest 2020-2022 swing:  Hamilton County, IL.  Sorry if this has been mentioned already. 

According to NYT, Tammy Duckworth (D) won the county 56-44. 

Trump (R) won 79-19 in 2020. 

That has to be a typo, right?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1591066978412032001

I'm not sure why Maloney has conceeded. He's trailing by 2,980 votes with probably at least 20,000 votes outstanding.

Is there any official totals for VBM left? We've heard about ~8K in NY-22, but haven't heard anything in NY-17, 18, and 19.

I know I sound like a broken record, but things have not changed since August in New York, and there was a decent amount of votes in the NY-19 special that moved it 2% in the end. So that's why I was surprised that 17 and 19 were called so quickly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Not all states are in yet, but I think we might have a contender for the biggest 2020-2022 swing:  Hamilton County, IL.  Sorry if this has been mentioned already. 

According to NYT, Tammy Duckworth (D) won the county 56-44. 

Trump (R) won 79-19 in 2020. 

That has to be a typo, right?

How did she do there in 2016?

[Ferguson97]

In case anyone was wondering, Mary Peltola is doing better in the first round results this time in some of the State House districts than she did in the FINAL ROUND in the special, largely concentrated around Fairbanks and the Bush seats. Case in point is that she got 80% of the final round in her native Bethel seat. She’s currently sitting at a dictator-level 84% there. She’s on track to win by double digits after RCV it looks like:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

Oof, looks like Peltola will probably end up winning 28 out of the 40 State House districts. Alaska Goddess Empress Peltola.

Barring a red tsunami, I think she has this seat for life.

[Gracile]

Not all states are in yet, but I think we might have a contender for the biggest 2020-2022 swing:  Hamilton County, IL.  Sorry if this has been mentioned already. 

According to NYT, Tammy Duckworth (D) won the county 56-44. 

Trump (R) won 79-19 in 2020. 

That has to be a typo, right?

Yes, it's a typo. Salvi is leading by nearly 50 points according to the unofficial results on the Hamilton County website.

[Oryxslayer]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

I’m skeptical. Democrats did so badly in New York that I don’t think a gerrymander would have saved more than a few.

Yes, but a few is all it would have taken

I'm pretty sure there are still a fair number of votes outstanding in New York, so we should wait to see the final results, I think. For example, Tom Suozzi was trailing after the election night count but went on to win by more than 10%.  I'm actually not sure why Sean Patrick Maloney has conceeded with thousands of votes still outstanding, but I assume he knows better than me.

It would be interesting to see these votes right now transposed into the Democratic gerrymandering map, because, don't forget, when you gerrymander fairly thin to very thin vote wins, and things go wrong, you can lose a great deal. The Democratic gerrymandered map might have produced a worse result for Democrats.

This seems to be the case, for instance, in Ohio for the Republicans.

The most extreme case of that was when Democrats gerrymandered Georgia to be, I think, 9-2 for them, (it went 7-4), but in the Republican wave year of 1994, it went 7-4 Republican.

As far as NY goes, things have changed from 2018/20. Remember waiting for a month to open all mail? Yeah that isn't a thing after reforms to the process. We had most of everything in on NY-19 and NY-22 during the special the hours after election day. Now, there are still outstanding votes that lean dem, which is why NY-22 remains uncalled, but the totals are 90% smaller.

[Gass3268]

If you want to know how the White House is feeling about the Senate majority.

https://twitter.com/haleaziz/status/1591088618592174081?s=46&t=lVdTrwg7dHLsS...

[wbrocks67]

Fung down to 46.8% in RI-02. Looks like the whole "GOP maxes out at 45-47% here" came true.

[coloradocowboi]

Why is McLeod-Skinner only winning Clackamas by 2?

Because idiot primary voters dumped the incumbent that would be up by 5% right now. Do I prefer McLeod to Schrader? Yes. But I prefer winning more.

Imagine actually believing primarying Schrader was a mistake

If we lose the seat, then it was, period.

Schrodinger’s progressive: always responsible for the party’s defeat, even when her centrist primary opponent in effect campaigned against her in the general… even if she wins lol

Yep. Who cares if she lost or won, Schrader was a sore loser to the highest degree and has no place in the Democratic party. Hopefully McLeod-Skinner tries again and wins in 24, this time with proper backing from the national party.

218 with 1 of them being Schrader is 100% better than 217 with a Republican in that seat. It's just math, even though I agree he's awful.

Honestly I don’t understand your opinion when you have no reliable data that he would’ve done any better?

You could just as easily argue Joe Biden put this seat at risk by endorsing his own enemy Schrader instead of McLeod Skinner in the primary. But absent any data, both opinions are just fretting and no substance. I think we have got to be less amygdala-ruled by our primaries and let them play out. We aren’t republicans. Nobody is gonna nominate some nut job, and when we treat our own primary base with contempt we lose.

And anyway, McLeod skinner is still pretty likely to win lol. That’s the weirdest part about this. Sometimes it feels like the moderate Dems are cheering against progressives, and that has gotta stop before 2024. Progressive turnout bailed out the Dems this midterm. It’s time for some respect

[new_patomic]

Not all states are in yet, but I think we might have a contender for the biggest 2020-2022 swing:  Hamilton County, IL.  Sorry if this has been mentioned already. 

According to NYT, Tammy Duckworth (D) won the county 56-44. 

Trump (R) won 79-19 in 2020. 

That has to be a typo, right?

AP has had an insane amount of issues with getting Illinois results this year for whatever reason.

NYT/AP show Duckworth winning Hamilton 722-574, Hamilton's own unofficial results have it as 853-2500.

[Benjamin Frank]

The Democratic establishment should have realized it well before the election, but they need to stop playing with water guns when their counterparts are using the big guns to gerrymander districts at the federal and state level.  

We are now well into the decade, but getting more federal judges over the next couple of years gives the opportunity to bring in lawsuits to change the makeup of said district to a more fair and just status.  That's what getting back the Senate majority for the next term does.

The reverse gerrymandering in New York has probably cost 7 seats--enough to tip the House back to the Republicans.   A 15-11 D-R split in the House delegation there is inexcusable.  

I’m skeptical. Democrats did so badly in New York that I don’t think a gerrymander would have saved more than a few.

Yes, but a few is all it would have taken

I'm pretty sure there are still a fair number of votes outstanding in New York, so we should wait to see the final results, I think. For example, Tom Suozzi was trailing after the election night count but went on to win by more than 10%.  I'm actually not sure why Sean Patrick Maloney has conceeded with thousands of votes still outstanding, but I assume he knows better than me.

It would be interesting to see these votes right now transposed into the Democratic gerrymandering map, because, don't forget, when you gerrymander fairly thin to very thin vote wins, and things go wrong, you can lose a great deal. The Democratic gerrymandered map might have produced a worse result for Democrats.

This seems to be the case, for instance, in Ohio for the Republicans.

The most extreme case of that was when Democrats gerrymandered Georgia to be, I think, 9-2 for them, (it went 7-4), but in the Republican wave year of 1994, it went 7-4 Republican.

As far as NY goes, things have changed from 2018/20. Remember waiting for a month to open all mail? Yeah that isn't a thing after reforms to the process. We had most of everything in on NY-19 and NY-22 during the special the hours after election day. Now, there are still outstanding votes that lean dem, which is why NY-22 remains uncalled, but the totals are 90% smaller.

Oh thanks.

[Frodo]

In case anyone was wondering, Mary Peltola is doing better in the first round results this time in some of the State House districts than she did in the FINAL ROUND in the special, largely concentrated around Fairbanks and the Bush seats. Case in point is that she got 80% of the final round in her native Bethel seat. She’s currently sitting at a dictator-level 84% there. She’s on track to win by double digits after RCV it looks like:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

Oof, looks like Peltola will probably end up winning 28 out of the 40 State House districts. Alaska Goddess Empress Peltola.

Barring a red tsunami, I think she has this seat for life.

That would be an amazing turnaround for Alaska considering the late Don Young held this seat for nearly fifty years.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not all states are in yet, but I think we might have a contender for the biggest 2020-2022 swing:  Hamilton County, IL.  Sorry if this has been mentioned already.  

According to NYT, Tammy Duckworth (D) won the county 56-44.  

Trump (R) won 79-19 in 2020.  

That has to be a typo, right?

Yes, it's a typo. Salvi is leading by nearly 50 points according to the unofficial results on the Hamilton County website.

I presume it's the same for nearby Jasper County? That's showing a fifty point swing from 20-22.  

[Holmes]

In case anyone was wondering, Mary Peltola is doing better in the first round results this time in some of the State House districts than she did in the FINAL ROUND in the special, largely concentrated around Fairbanks and the Bush seats. Case in point is that she got 80% of the final round in her native Bethel seat. She’s currently sitting at a dictator-level 84% there. She’s on track to win by double digits after RCV it looks like:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

Oof, looks like Peltola will probably end up winning 28 out of the 40 State House districts. Alaska Goddess Empress Peltola.

Barring a red tsunami, I think she has this seat for life.

Yes, and she also gives other Democrats a blueprint on how to win statewide, especially as the state moves more in their direction.

[Spectator]

In case anyone was wondering, Mary Peltola is doing better in the first round results this time in some of the State House districts than she did in the FINAL ROUND in the special, largely concentrated around Fairbanks and the Bush seats. Case in point is that she got 80% of the final round in her native Bethel seat. She’s currently sitting at a dictator-level 84% there. She’s on track to win by double digits after RCV it looks like:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/us-house-district-1

Oof, looks like Peltola will probably end up winning 28 out of the 40 State House districts. Alaska Goddess Empress Peltola.

Maybe as many as 30 I think. The Republican vote is heavily concentrated in MatSu, which she is also holding up well in, performing at about the same level as her final round performance in the special, and that’s before Begich votes get redistributed this time.

I think she will end up flipping Prince of Wales, Aleutians East, Fairbanks North Star, and Petersburg boroughs, all of which she narrowly lost in the special except for Aleutians East which she lost 57-43.

[Pres Mike]

If you want to know how the White House is feeling about the Senate majority.

https://twitter.com/haleaziz/status/1591088618592174081?s=46&t=lVdTrwg7dHLsS...

What is the significance of this?

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Not all states are in yet, but I think we might have a contender for the biggest 2020-2022 swing:  Hamilton County, IL.  Sorry if this has been mentioned already. 

According to NYT, Tammy Duckworth (D) won the county 56-44. 

Trump (R) won 79-19 in 2020. 

That has to be a typo, right?

Updated unofficial results from the county show:

Kathy Salvi 2,500 73.57%
Tammy Duckworth 843 24.81%

[Benjamin Frank]

If this hasn't been mentioned yet, Ken Calvert is now ahead in California, according to Decision Desk. The change was so dramatic I have to assume there was a previous transposition error.

[wbrocks67]

CO-08 is now >95% in with Caraveo still up 0.8%. This should be called at this point

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

[Hope For A New Era]

If this hasn't been mentioned yet, Ken Calvert is now ahead in California, according to Decision Desk. The change was so dramatic I have to assume there was a previous transposition error.

I believe that's with all or nearly all in-person votes in, with what's left being mail, but don't quote me on that.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

Which obviously won't happen.

[DaleCooper]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

Tough to know how hard they have to veer left on the issues, but they must drop the crackpot religious crap. They don't have to abandon Christianity, but they have to tone down the ExtremeRepublican fake version of Christianity. That is a dying monster.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/dellavolpe/status/1590939577661161473

Longterm these voters are a huge problem for the gop. They are more secular, more lgbt, more atheist, more leftist, more educated (many went to college and dropped out or conscientiously chose not to go to college). They are definitely up for grabs, but in order to grab them the gop has got to veer left hard and fast on key issues at odds with their base

Which obviously won't happen.

I’m still a Ruy Teixeira believer. The GOP just can’t win diverse audiences because the senate and federal structure incentivize them to cater to a dwindling white minority, which will soon even be a minority within white people ourselves. I dk what that means in 2024, but I think the gop is demographically f’d by 2040