Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

I'm assuming those were the "roughly 1800" in person votes referenced earlier.

Otero is where the votes came from that Boebert just netted. From the looks of it, there are an additional 1800ish votes sitting in Pueblo.

It’s very likely Boebert nets more votes out of that 1800 batch then? Is there any way for Frisch to make it up cause if not he’s done

If Frisch wins by 6% in all of the outstanding Pueblo votes, he wins. He can lose the ED vote and clean up with the early vote and it will break that 6% required. Polis, Bennet, and current CO-3 numbers have Democrats winning Pueblo by 6 or more. It will be tight, but it is certainly plausible that he pulls this out.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

We’ll see what comes in today, but I might have to take back my comments about CA-03 being unwinnable for Kermit Jones (D). I’m officially in wait and see mode.

Don't really know if this is legit or not, but:

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1590525037739900928

You can always trust a kiwi.  Look at that schnozz.

They’re the only bird with nostrils at the end of their beaks. Good for sniffing out lies!

[wbrocks67]

Iowa is just getting increasingly away from Dems. They rewarded Grassley's incumbency despite being 89 years old, but didn't do the same for AG-

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590752653696700416

[7,052,770]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html

Good resource here

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html

Good resource here

Some of these seats they need to call already...

[Spectator]

Iowa is just getting increasingly away from Dems. They rewarded Grassley's incumbency despite being 89 years old, but didn't do the same for AG-

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590752653696700416

Rob Sand was the lone Democrat survivor out of Iowa, which is still one more win than most were expecting.

[kwabbit]

NJ congressional results by county/ 2020 pres/ 2021 gov:

Atlantic: R+23/D+7/R+11
Bergen: D+13/D+16/D+6
Burlington: D+17/D+20/D+7
Camden: D+36/D+33/D+24
Cape May: R+30/R+16/R+26
Cumberland: R+13/D+6/R+12
Essex: D+55/D+55/D+49
Gloucester: D+2/D+2/R+10
Hudson: D+49/D+46/D+48
Hunterdon: R+10/R+4/R+19
Mercer: D+59/D+40/D+31
Middlesex: D+16/D+22/D+12
Monmouth: R+13/R+3/R+18
Morris: D+0/D+4/R+11
Ocean: R+41/R+29/R+36
Passaic: D+8/D+16/D+4
Salem: R+26/R+13/R+29
Somerset: D+10/D+21/D+4
Sussex: R+26/R+20/R+35
Union: D+27/D+35/D+24
Warren: R+26/R+16/R+28

Atlantic and Mercer will change significantly, but that’s the initial results.

Camden putting in work. D+24 is kind of ugly for 2021. No wonder Murphy underperformed overall.

Norcross, or his brother more realistically, wield immense power in Camden County and South Jersey. It’s not surprising that the machine would hold the county solid for Donald Norcross. South Jersey is one of the few places left in the country that can be said to have a machine.

George Norcross and Phil Murphy have feuded for years. He let Murphy fend for himself in 2021. Murphy collapsed in South Jersey in 2021 because of that, even though it’s typically very strong in State level races, and he took a few legislative seats with him. Among these was Steve Sweeney, the State Senate president.  Sweeney was Norcross’ main scion.

Van Drew is another Norcross protege. He was given approval by George Norcross to switch parties, but he used to be part of the Dem machine there. Part of the reason why Van Drew dominated is that Norcross still supports him. It’s easy to win in a landslide as a Republican when the local Democratic establishment basically supports you.

It's funny; I was in line for the Obama/Biden rally in Philly on Saturday and the couple in front of us were from NJ. They were from Kim's district and absolutely loved him, and they said how awful Norcross is, how corrupt he is, and how he's the worst of the "New Jersey Democratic machine"

Kim does break the NJ Democratic mold. He’s not a corrupt machine politician nor a Manhattan millionaire who has enough money to blow the machine off. He’s earnest and soft spoken when the default for an NJ Dem is to be like “cross me and I’ll destroy your career” or “I will cut you if you try to raise taxes on my upper middle constituents and piss them off”.

[Atlas Force]

Iowa is just getting increasingly away from Dems. They rewarded Grassley's incumbency despite being 89 years old, but didn't do the same for AG-

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590752653696700416

Rob Sand was the lone Democrat survivor out of Iowa, which is still one more win than most were expecting.

Very good chance Sand runs for Governor or Senator sooner or later.

[Devils30]

The entire GOP House majority is going to be from sleazeball Albany and Trenton politicians, not MAGA world.

[Dani Rose]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

[It’s so Joever]

I told you all Otero would end Frisch, its just too red.

[They not like us]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

Yeah DDHQ called it

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590466460409040896?s=20&t=Mb1kcH8...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/abughazalehkat/status/1590542903755309056

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Whoever called AZ-06 was very premature. I’m curious how Kelly is doing on both districts right now, my guess is he’s ahead in both by about 6% but will only win both by about 2% in the end, a slight over performance of Joe.

Stanton is very clearly on track to win AZ-04 though

I’d still rather be Rs in both but frankly there’s too much uncertainty in what remains to be counted in AZ to jump to any conclusions

[Dani Rose]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

That would be very silly if so, considering 37% of the Pima portion of that district is still outstanding. But we've seen some extremely premature calls so far, so that doesn't surprise me terribly.

[It’s so Joever]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

That would be very silly if so, considering 37% of the Pima portion of that district is still outstanding. But we've seen some extremely premature calls so far, so that doesn't surprise me terribly.

I trust DDHQ, if they are calling it they probably know something we don't.

[wbrocks67]

Caveat here being *Nonpartisan polls* did a very good job. If you took out most of the GOP nonsense, the averages would probably even be better. I get G.Elliott is including adjusting the polls, but if we're just talking unadjusted averages, it seems just including nonpartisan polls, the averages were great.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1590746060343119872

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

That would be very silly if so, considering 37% of the Pima portion of that district is still outstanding. But we've seen some extremely premature calls so far, so that doesn't surprise me terribly.

Also in the only County all the way in (Graham), Ciscomani is slightly underperforming Trump who narrowly lost the district by about 400 votes in 2020. It’s not a done deal and if outlets are calling this, might as well call CA-47 and CA-49 as well

[wbrocks67]

There is possibly 100k-150K left in Pima, I guess it depends on what is still out.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

That would be very silly if so, considering 37% of the Pima portion of that district is still outstanding. But we've seen some extremely premature calls so far, so that doesn't surprise me terribly.

I trust DDHQ, if they are calling it they probably know something we don't.

Actually, they were one of those that f'ed up CA-21 a few years back. Chances are they just expect 2020 ballot trend repeat, so if it goes different things go wrong. Being the fastest outlet means you make errors sometimes compared to the established  ones.

[xavier110]

We have a peek into MARICOPA LATE EARLIES

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590757973147930624?cxt=HHwWgMDSkdn8wJM...

As Jamal says, stick a fork in Finchem and Masters. These drops may even break D…

Hobbs vs Lake will be a bloodbath, so expect militias wandering the streets for weeks…

[Flo 2.0]

NJ congressional results by county/ 2020 pres/ 2021 gov:

Atlantic: R+23/D+7/R+11
Bergen: D+13/D+16/D+6
Burlington: D+17/D+20/D+7
Camden: D+36/D+33/D+24
Cape May: R+30/R+16/R+26
Cumberland: R+13/D+6/R+12
Essex: D+55/D+55/D+49
Gloucester: D+2/D+2/R+10
Hudson: D+49/D+46/D+48
Hunterdon: R+10/R+4/R+19
Mercer: D+59/D+40/D+31
Middlesex: D+16/D+22/D+12
Monmouth: R+13/R+3/R+18
Morris: D+0/D+4/R+11
Ocean: R+41/R+29/R+36
Passaic: D+8/D+16/D+4
Salem: R+26/R+13/R+29
Somerset: D+10/D+21/D+4
Sussex: R+26/R+20/R+35
Union: D+27/D+35/D+24
Warren: R+26/R+16/R+28

Atlantic and Mercer will change significantly, but that’s the initial results.

Camden putting in work. D+24 is kind of ugly for 2021. No wonder Murphy underperformed overall.

Norcross, or his brother more realistically, wield immense power in Camden County and South Jersey. It’s not surprising that the machine would hold the county solid for Donald Norcross. South Jersey is one of the few places left in the country that can be said to have a machine.

George Norcross and Phil Murphy have feuded for years. He let Murphy fend for himself in 2021. Murphy collapsed in South Jersey in 2021 because of that, even though it’s typically very strong in State level races, and he took a few legislative seats with him. Among these was Steve Sweeney, the State Senate president.  Sweeney was Norcross’ main scion.

Van Drew is another Norcross protege. He was given approval by George Norcross to switch parties, but he used to be part of the Dem machine there. Part of the reason why Van Drew dominated is that Norcross still supports him. It’s easy to win in a landslide as a Republican when the local Democratic establishment basically supports you.

It's funny; I was in line for the Obama/Biden rally in Philly on Saturday and the couple in front of us were from NJ. They were from Kim's district and absolutely loved him, and they said how awful Norcross is, how corrupt he is, and how he's the worst of the "New Jersey Democratic machine"

FACTS

[2016]

Lauren Boebert is now ahead by 386 Votes in CO-3.

[Person Man]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

So it’s only a matter of time for the Captain to win? I could see a situation where, if you averaged the two races at the top, you would come very close to the national GCB, about D+1. Arizona might be voting in line with the nation now.