Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Ferguson97]

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

Aren’t there also outstanding oversea/military ballots?

[Roll Roons]

Calvert pulls ahead:
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1590752054795857927

[kwabbit]

In general this is probably the most well-distributed Dem vote I can ever remember.

There's decent enough odds that they keep the House but lose the popular vote. I don't think anyone envisioned that being possible.

I'm kind of looking at the popular vote-House margin split from the other side and thinking it must mean there are still TONS of Democratic votes to count, not just in California, but also places like New Jersey like kwabbit pointed out. And really, that gives me even more optimism about the potential that they could take the House.

NJ remaining ballots should be about 60k Dem/40k GOP, so they shouldn’t matter too much in terms of overall house NPV.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

Aren’t there also outstanding oversea/military ballots?

Yes, but those are small. If you saw a tweet with 10K estimation, the tweeter admitted to having a extra 0. If it comes down to that not Pueblo, things are too tight.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Calvert pulls ahead:
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1590752054795857927

Damn that’s over a 2:1 margin in favor of Calvert. I wonder what those ballots were and where they came form in the district.

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

Aren’t there also outstanding oversea/military ballots?

Looks like winning the remaining ballots by 6% will be enough for Frisch to win. Here's hoping for the best.

[here2view]

Those recent CO-03 numbers aren't the best but it still looks like Bobo the clown could lose. Depends on how many mail in ballots are from Pueblo and how much Frisch can win them by.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

Aren’t there also outstanding oversea/military ballots?

Looks like winning the remaining ballots by 6% will be enough for Frisch to win. Here's hoping for the best.

He’s currently winning Pueblo by about 6. Is there any reason to assume these ballots would be particularly more D/R than Pueblo overall?

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1590749287754788871

I will be honest, I did phonebanking with the CO Dems early on...and I believed Caraveo to be DOA and was more concerned with keeping CO-7 from flipping, so I never signed up for CO-8 events. Major lmao in hindsight.

[emailking]

NBC Decision Desk is now R 222 ± 7

Now R 221 ± 7

[SCNCmod]

Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NBC Decision Desk is now R 222 ± 7

Now R 221 ± 7

I think these estimates are slightly R favorable because there are more outstanding uncalled races that everyone knows will go D (ME-02, AKAL, CA seats prolly WA-08 and MD-06). I think the median outcome rn is about 219 for Rs

[It’s so Joever]

Calvert pulls ahead:
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1590752054795857927

Damn that’s over a 2:1 margin in favor of Calvert. I wonder what those ballots were and where they came form in the district.

Yikes, but not surprising.

[wbrocks67]

Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

Beasley's performance was commendable. She only did 2% worse than Biden did, and Budd ended up being more Generic R than most candidates. Not to mention, she got a little help from SMP, but she got absolutely swamped by outside GOP spending, so not really a level playing field.

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

Aren’t there also outstanding oversea/military ballots?

Looks like winning the remaining ballots by 6% will be enough for Frisch to win. Here's hoping for the best.

He’s currently winning Pueblo by about 6. Is there any reason to assume these ballots would be particularly more D/R than Pueblo overall?

It is close enough that random variance could make a difference in either direction.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

I'm assuming those were the "roughly 1800" in person votes referenced earlier.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Calvert pulls ahead:
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1590752054795857927

Damn that’s over a 2:1 margin in favor of Calvert. I wonder what those ballots were and where they came form in the district.

Yikes, but not surprising.

I’m taking Cali with huge grains of salt rn

Also in Cali every county is unique, the order of how ballots are being counted in one county may be different in another.

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

I'm assuming those were the "roughly 1800" in person votes referenced earlier.

Otero is where the votes came from that Boebert just netted. From the looks of it, there are an additional 1800ish votes sitting in Pueblo.

[emailking]

NBC Decision Desk is now R 222 ± 7

Now R 221 ± 7

I think these estimates are slightly R favorable because there are more outstanding uncalled races that everyone knows will go D (ME-02, AKAL, CA seats prolly WA-08 and MD-06). I think the median outcome rn is about 219 for Rs

Yeah it's not clear whether their model is based only on called races or takes all knows counted votes into consideration.

[wbrocks67]

Pundits/TV analysts need to give some perspective when talking about Florida. Of course yes, the state is absolutely trending more red, but the context here is that the Democratic Party literally spent $0 in this state this election, which is quite different than the last 10 election cycles. DeSantis/Rubio were on track to win big, but I'd say their margins are also a bit inflated due to the lack of Dem participation. And unsurprisingly, that lack of Dem motivation (from national party), also clearly depressed Dem turnout.

I mean, the ultimate electorate that came out in FL was literally 54% Biden was legitimately elected, 43% not. That shows Dems just didn't show up.

[Spectator]

Thoughts on next step for Dem Senate candidates who had competitive loses..

- Cheri Beasley ...could run for Governor in 2 years... or take a position in Biden Admin then run for Tillis seat in 4 years (I think Beasley & Jeff Jackson will be the noms for Senate '26 & Gov '24 (Since Jackson became a congressman on Tues, it prob makes most sense that He is the Senate '26 candidate/ and Beasley the next Gov nominee)

- Mandela Barnes ...could take a post in the Biden Admin.. as a holdover to run for Gov in 4yrs?  He could also run for Congress in 2 yrs to stay relevant until he makes next move).

- Tim Ryan ... I see him wanting to run for Gov in 4 years.


Others:
Beto & Abrams... after 2 elections, both have large political organizations. So they will prob Build on those in some capacity- and if in 4-6 years, the political leanings of GA & TX experience meaningful shift to Dems- then go for Gov (Abrams)/ Sen or Gov (Beto... although if there is a shift to Dems the next 4 years- there would have to be some coordination with Rep Castro & Wendy Davis).

Demmings ... Either Biden Admin.. or run for a Close R house seat in 2024.

Is there a reason Stein wouldn’t run for Governor and Cooper for Senate in 2026? Cooper seemed to leave the door open to it a few months ago.

[kwabbit]

NJ congressional results by county/ 2020 pres/ 2021 gov:

Atlantic: R+23/D+7/R+11
Bergen: D+13/D+16/D+6
Burlington: D+17/D+20/D+7
Camden: D+36/D+33/D+24
Cape May: R+30/R+16/R+26
Cumberland: R+13/D+6/R+12
Essex: D+55/D+55/D+49
Gloucester: D+2/D+2/R+10
Hudson: D+49/D+46/D+48
Hunterdon: R+10/R+4/R+19
Mercer: D+59/D+40/D+31
Middlesex: D+16/D+22/D+12
Monmouth: R+13/R+3/R+18
Morris: D+0/D+4/R+11
Ocean: R+41/R+29/R+36
Passaic: D+8/D+16/D+4
Salem: R+26/R+13/R+29
Somerset: D+10/D+21/D+4
Sussex: R+26/R+20/R+35
Union: D+27/D+35/D+24
Warren: R+26/R+16/R+28

Atlantic and Mercer will change significantly, but that’s the initial results.

Camden putting in work. D+24 is kind of ugly for 2021. No wonder Murphy underperformed overall.

Norcross, or his brother more realistically, wield immense power in Camden County and South Jersey. It’s not surprising that the machine would hold the county solid for Donald Norcross. South Jersey is one of the few places left in the country that can be said to have a machine.

George Norcross and Phil Murphy have feuded for years. He let Murphy fend for himself in 2021. Murphy collapsed in South Jersey in 2021 because of that, even though it’s typically very strong in State level races, and he took a few legislative seats with him. Among these was Steve Sweeney, the State Senate president.  Sweeney was Norcross’ main scion.

Van Drew is another Norcross protege. He was given approval by George Norcross to switch parties, but he used to be part of the Dem machine there. Part of the reason why Van Drew dominated is that Norcross still supports him. It’s easy to win in a landslide as a Republican when the local Democratic establishment basically supports you.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590753649911025667?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgf...

Reminder from earlier

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088?s=20&t=sE66V2sKg...

I'm assuming those were the "roughly 1800" in person votes referenced earlier.

Otero is where the votes came from that Boebert just netted. From the looks of it, there are an additional 1800ish votes sitting in Pueblo.

It’s very likely Boebert nets more votes out of that 1800 batch then? Is there any way for Frisch to make it up cause if not he’s done

[wbrocks67]

NJ congressional results by county/ 2020 pres/ 2021 gov:

Atlantic: R+23/D+7/R+11
Bergen: D+13/D+16/D+6
Burlington: D+17/D+20/D+7
Camden: D+36/D+33/D+24
Cape May: R+30/R+16/R+26
Cumberland: R+13/D+6/R+12
Essex: D+55/D+55/D+49
Gloucester: D+2/D+2/R+10
Hudson: D+49/D+46/D+48
Hunterdon: R+10/R+4/R+19
Mercer: D+59/D+40/D+31
Middlesex: D+16/D+22/D+12
Monmouth: R+13/R+3/R+18
Morris: D+0/D+4/R+11
Ocean: R+41/R+29/R+36
Passaic: D+8/D+16/D+4
Salem: R+26/R+13/R+29
Somerset: D+10/D+21/D+4
Sussex: R+26/R+20/R+35
Union: D+27/D+35/D+24
Warren: R+26/R+16/R+28

Atlantic and Mercer will change significantly, but that’s the initial results.

Camden putting in work. D+24 is kind of ugly for 2021. No wonder Murphy underperformed overall.

Norcross, or his brother more realistically, wield immense power in Camden County and South Jersey. It’s not surprising that the machine would hold the county solid for Donald Norcross. South Jersey is one of the few places left in the country that can be said to have a machine.

George Norcross and Phil Murphy have feuded for years. He let Murphy fend for himself in 2021. Murphy collapsed in South Jersey in 2021 because of that, even though it’s typically very strong in State level races, and he took a few legislative seats with him. Among these was Steve Sweeney, the State Senate president.  Sweeney was Norcross’ main scion.

Van Drew is another Norcross protege. He was given approval by George Norcross to switch parties, but he used to be part of the Dem machine there. Part of the reason why Van Drew dominated is that Norcross still supports him. It’s easy to win in a landslide as a Republican when the local Democratic establishment basically supports you.

It's funny; I was in line for the Obama/Biden rally in Philly on Saturday and the couple in front of us were from NJ. They were from Kim's district and absolutely loved him, and they said how awful Norcross is, how corrupt he is, and how he's the worst of the "New Jersey Democratic machine"