Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[wbrocks67]

Blake Masters is saying he's confident he will win

Not really sure where the lane is for Masters here. IIRC, CNN said this morning about ~300K Maricopa e-day drop-offs left, but ~-90K drop-offs from Friday.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1590380556331556865?cxt=HHwWgoCl3ZKslZIsAAA...

NYT count has both of them above 120k, though?

And Hayes leading

It’s still extremely close and even a small batch of particularly R outstanding votes could flip it.

NYT estimates what is still out is D-leaning

NYT estimates can be iffy. Case in point is Milwuakee

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590384454669070337?t=0VMxZDluGXXNkYNMKC_...

Smoking on that Boebert pack

Wow. And people called him a grifter.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1590380556331556865?cxt=HHwWgoCl3ZKslZIsAAA...

NYT is showing Hayes ahead with more votes for both candidates...Hayes with 123k and Logan with 122k.

https://twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1590383515643760640?s=20&t=xlrW5pcy2D59...

It’d be really sad if Hayes lost for multiple reasons. Former teacher, representing Newtown, and it’d knock out the D House sweep in New England.

Absolutely, and she's a black woman, that are already underrepresented. I hope she not only hangs on, but will rise to senate or gubernatorial material. Would have preferred Blumenthal to retire and Hayes as senator this time already.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1590353266797182976

[Still Nervous]

Blake Masters is saying he's confident he will win

Like, Peter Thiel level of confidence in JD Vance confident?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No regret except for Ryan all our incumbents solidify the blue wall in 24 and Gillibrand will bring in new D for NY seats we lost unfortunately I won't endorse Feinstein

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590384454669070337?t=0VMxZDluGXXNkYNMKC_...

Smoking on that Boebert pack

Good riddance!

Thank you Colorado, very cool!

[Oryxslayer]

Weren't the later ballots in NY very Dem friendly in 2020? I remember making swing maps days after the election where NY was a clear outlier, and looked like Republicans had really overperformed, only for it to even out with the states around it as the last ballots came in.

I think the later ballots were more dem friendly, I remember Souzzi looking like he was slightly behind at like 3AM election night

Edit: this is pure copium about NY and they could have changed whatever may have made that the case in 2020

Things have changed, but the lean still holds true. Just the numbers are much, much, smaller cause of counting process changes that have most of the mail released before 1 month passes. The Ryan special election is key here -  the election shifted towards dems, but not by more than marginal.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590384454669070337?t=0VMxZDluGXXNkYNMKC_...

Smoking on that Boebert pack

RIP HP

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1590353266797182976

I wonder what’s gonna happen to rcp after this. They really doubled down on their “unskewing” meathod plots and it’s come back to bite them in the face

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1590353266797182976

Does this include all the partisan ones, though? Even 538's adjustments still really bent the averages very R in places like NH, PA, WI, MI, etc.

[Still Nervous]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1590384454669070337?t=0VMxZDluGXXNkYNMKC_...

Smoking on that Boebert pack

Maybe the real QAnon was the coups we attempted along the way

[LtNOWIS]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137?s=20&t=1FLxnUCc8A6X...
     No surprise from Trump, but just zero accountability. You gave us Oz, bro. Own up to your failure.

One again, our glorious king is let down by his bad advisors. Sad!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590384374070902785

[xavier110]

Boebert losing really sums up the election. Feels like folks said absolutely not to the perceived ‘extremists,’ which by and large were the Trump affiliated Rs…

Dobbs made the threat more tangible

[wbrocks67]

Weren't the later ballots in NY very Dem friendly in 2020? I remember making swing maps days after the election where NY was a clear outlier, and looked like Republicans had really overperformed, only for it to even out with the states around it as the last ballots came in.

I think the later ballots were more dem friendly, I remember Souzzi looking like he was slightly behind at like 3AM election night

Edit: this is pure copium about NY and they could have changed whatever may have made that the case in 2020

Things have changed, but the lean still holds true. Just the numbers are much, much, smaller cause of counting process changes that have most of the mail released before 1 month passes. The Ryan special election is key here -  the election shifted towards dems, but not by more than marginal.

Marginal, but enough to possibly shift some of these close races. Went from Ryan +2 to Ryan +4, enough to flip NY-22 and NY-19 right now. Not saying that will happen, but curious how much is still out in those areas.

Pat Ryan seems safe then in NY-18.

[wbrocks67]

Boebert losing really sums up the election. Feels like folks said absolutely not to the perceived ‘extremists,’ which by and large were the Trump affiliated Rs…

Dobbs made the threat more tangible

Can only hope Hobbs somehow ekes it out in AZ, then.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ElectMikeGarcia/status/1590363901094670336

Garcia declares victory. Seems premature but he seems to be in a okish position.

[LimoLiberal]

CCM probably going to lose:

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590387437934907392

[Smash255]

Does anyone have a good explanation for exactly what happened in New York?
Like why does it appear to have been a sizable red wave across the state while both Pennsylvania and all of New England were significant blue waves?

Trickle down effect of crime and cashless bail played a role.  There were a few high profile incidents in which those released on cashless bail committed more crimes including some violent ones and others over and over again.

Republicans also ran an effective scare campaign in making people think that cashless bail was an option for rapists, murders and violent criminals and Democrats did a poor at defending it and calling out the misinformation.

[Crumpets]

Patty Murray looks set to win Clallam County (although still lots of votes out), which would be interesting, since it's been a strong national bellwether for a while now.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590384374070902785

Meh... maybe CCM and Kelly hanging on and locking Republicans out of a senate majority may discourage enough Republican voters. Plus, Kemp is no longer on the ballot and Trump might scream "fraud" just again, making enough Republicans not to bother voting anymore.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1590353266797182976

I wonder what’s gonna happen to rcp after this. They really doubled down on their “unskewing” meathod plots and it’s come back to bite them in the face

Hahahahahaha I forgot all about that

[xavier110]

CCM probably going to lose:

https://twitter.com/s_golonka/status/1590387437934907392

That I vote is going to break overwhelmingly CCM, though. She could win 60% of that dump…