Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[new_patomic]

Does anyone know when we can expect more results from Clackamas?

Next year?

Joe Biden's second inauguration?

JD Vance's 2028 Acceptance Speech?

[Skill and Chance]

So CCM needs to net 9k votes out of 90k? So she only needs 55%? And she’s been getting 62ish?

Yes, but not all of that will be counted.  Something like 30K either needs to be cured or is day-off provisionals.  FWIW in 2020 75% of ballots needing curing were ultimately cured, so I would still expect most of them to count.  The deadline to cure is Monday.

It's looking quite good for CCM, though, mainly because Washoe has been amazing for her.  I would say Clark has been good but not great.  Biden also overperformed traditional Dem benchmarks in Washoe while underperforming in Clark.

[MillennialModerate]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

Same. That’s why I had 220-215 being the final result

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591173748291686400

[😥]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

https://twitter.com/gardnerphil/status/1591169133735202816?t=NnjagK2WUowg-WLeyi6...

Yes, I'm also fairly uncertain about WA-03, but I consider this more likely pick-up than CA-27, for example. Anyway without WA-03 Democratic majority seems impossible, and Joe Kent in Congress is awful, awful thing

Also we should get a more clearer picture about this race today

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1591164415625203713

Ralston all but writing Sisolak's obituary. Damn.

If we had to lose one of Nevada Senate or Governor. I'd easily choose Governor.

Same, especially given that Sisolak is just this side of downright right-wing on labor rights and business regulations.

F**k him for vetoing NV's NPVIC bill too. At least if you support it, you know you're getting opposition with Lombardo now or you knew that you'd be getting that with Laxalt 4 years ago, but the Legislature presumably only went through with passing it because he didn't have the minimal decency to preemptively inform his own legislative allies of his personal opposition &, thus, a potentially resultant public political embarrassment. Dick move, is all I'm sayin'

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but all the butthurt today makes me feel like the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're going through Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5.

[Torrain]

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056

Are they trying to postpone until new members are elected?

If that is the case and dems win NV, AZ, and GA, doesn't this movement have almost a quarter of people it needs to out McConnell (6 backers, 49 GOP senators, 25 for majority)?

Are there 19 others that would back it?

I'm suspecting most of the backers will be freshmen or very anti-establishment people

I don't think they seriously expect to beat McConnell. I think they're playing a similar game to the one UK Conservatives play - where you essentially force a vote of confidence, show that the boss only has the support of 60-70% of their members. Essentially showing that McConnell's authority is shaky, and that it's in his interests to either stand down of his own voalition, or set out a timetable for doing so.

That requires you to have the numbers to do so behind the scenes though - so fair chance this fizzles out if McConnell's still got leverage over most members.

[President Johnson]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but it feels like I'm the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're coming into Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5

Yeah, because we're already smelling to maintain the majority and Republicans in shambles tastes so great.

[Oryxslayer]

Maricopa and arguably Clarke counties should really be broken up. These western mega counties just seem really impractical for a lot of things

I would add Los Angeles as well.

The following counties could be broken up, some in multiple rather than 2 successors, and the nation would be for the better if said lines followed community lines and recognized geographic/cultural divisions and wern't gerrymanders:

Los Angeles
San Bernardino
Riverside
San Diego
Santa Clara
Orange, CA
Fresno
Kern
Cook, IL (this one kinda is administratively)
Harris, TX
Clark, NV
Maricopa
Pima
King, WA

[7,052,770]

Funny how no one seems to be talking about Guam anymore.
That was like -THE- story on here for much of Election Day.

Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and Guam should be admitted as states immediately. It's a perfect compromise- a blue state, a swing state, and a red state, so no feelings have to get hurt to do the right thinf.

Guam + Northern Marianas Islands and I'm in.

A Marianas state would still have the lowest population in the Union, but 200k (201,165 in the 2020 Census) is enough for a state to support itself. Almost all western states were admitted with smaller populations than that.

That seems appropriate, given the small size of both and the unlikelihood of the NMI ever reaching statehood population on its own.

[Spectator]

I’d be shocked if Perez loses. Yeah, it will probably close more, but to make up a whole 6k vote gap when Lewis is already nearly 100% in seems too tall a task to overcome. Her campaign will be an interesting case study since it’s just so rare that the party in power actually flips a seat that doesn’t usually favor the presidential incumbent party. I understand Joe Kent is a bad candidate, but didn’t realize he was that bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but it feels like I'm the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're coming into Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5

You're not the only one.  Keeping the majority would be great, but it would be gravy on top of what we already got.  I also look forward to watching the R caucus in the House embarrass itself if they have a bare majority.  I'll also quote myself from the Election Day and Night Survival Guide:

7. If your side does well, always remember that it could have been better ("Damn, we almost got Rep. Dorque.")  If your side does poorly, remember that it could have been worse ("Whew, at least Dorque survived.")  It's OK to celebrate or mourn the results, but try not to lash out at others in the process.

[MillennialModerate]

CNN goes with the “Key Race Alert” graphic and music to tell us…. 56 votes were just dropped and all for Katie Hobbs.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but it feels like I'm the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're coming into Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5

Yeah, because we're already smelling to maintain the majority and Republicans in shambles tastes so great.

At this point, I'd be very content with a 218-217 GOP majority. Nothings getting done anyway at that close a main margin regardless of party control. Might as well give it to them so they can eat all the chaos and blame they want for 2 years.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591173748291686400

That kinda sucks for Republicans. Maybe Hobbs will make it and Kelly will outperform Fetterman.

[Storr]

Does anyone know when we can expect more results from Clackamas?

Next year?

Joe Biden's second inauguration?

JD Vance's 2028 Acceptance Speech?

February 14, 2059. They're waiting for Oregon's bicentennial.  

[Devils30]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

I don't know, but it feels like I'm the only one ecstatic that Dems have gotten as close as they have in the House.

Folks came into Tuesday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+30 and we're coming into Friday disappointed that the House could end up GOP+5

Yeah, because we're already smelling to maintain the majority and Republicans in shambles tastes so great.

At this point, I'd be very content with a 218-217 GOP chaos majority. Nothings getting done anyway regardless of party control and if the GOP does get a precious +1 majority, it'll be pure chaos on their plate

Yeah, and within 3-6 months you wonder who will say f*** it and just leave.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When's the next dump from Nevada? I'm really hoping CCM can shelve this race today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know when we can expect more results from Clackamas?

Next year?

Joe Biden's second inauguration?

JD Vance's 2028 Acceptance Speech?

February 14, 2059. They're waiting for Oregon's bicentennial.  

Didn't Clackamas also have counting issues in 2020?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know when we can expect more results from Clackamas?

Next year?

Joe Biden's second inauguration?

JD Vance's 2028 Acceptance Speech?

February 14, 2059. They're waiting for Oregon's bicentennial.  

Didn't Clackamas also have counting issues in 2020?

They had issues in the 2022 primary

[soundchaser]

When's the next dump from Nevada? I'm really hoping CCM can shelve this race today.

5-6 PM PST.

[Alben Barkley]

In retrospect, maybe shouldn't be too surprising the GOP struggled in the House. After all, they had to flip back a number of suburban seats and they're increasingly toxic among women and college educated whites. I have a feeling a lot of the ones they won will be rentals.

[Gass3268]

Team McLeod-Skinner claims there is at least 65K remaining Clackamas County.

https://twitter.com/JMShumway/status/1591154682671792128?s=20&t=kZRioaCM-6yh...

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly am I the only one not feeling great about WA-03. It seems like the outstanding vote which even in Clark should break pretty heavily for kemp.

Coming up just short in both CO-03 and WA-03 would suck

https://twitter.com/gardnerphil/status/1591169133735202816?t=NnjagK2WUowg-WLeyi6...

Yes, I'm also fairly uncertain about WA-03, but I consider this more likely pick-up than CA-27, for example. Anyway without WA-03 Democratic majority seems impossible, and Joe Kent in Congress is awful, awful thing

Also we should get a more clearer picture about this race today

Past precedent says:

3K-ish left in Thurston. GOP nets a tiny bit

7K-ish left in Cowlitz. seemingly should break even

30-35K-ish left in Clark. Past precedent says they should go GOP and cause a heartbreak. But if Dems were to be on track to win, and keep outperforming there, then things break even again.

And almost northing remains from the rest of the district.