Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

So it's kind of meh but not world-ending then.

She is going to underperform Biden in the district no question, but it's a Biden + 8.8 seat, so she can afford an underperformance, but not a huge one. Right now she seems to be underperforming by about 9% so right on that knife's edge.

How is she doing in Deschutes? I could see a bigger than normal underperformance there.

Biden won OR-05 portion by 13% but she's only up 5% with 89% of the vote in.

[philly09]

CNN finally called CA-37, CA-34 and CA-15

[Oryxslayer]

Oh, and AZ-06 is now 51-49 after that drop in cased you think it is still callable for the GOP.

[DaleCooper]

Also something hilarious, at some point late last night/this morning, Masters jumped to over 40c on PredictIt because (apparently) Charlie Kirk told his audience to go bet money on Arizona Republicans.

L
O
L

[MillennialModerate]

I wish we had exact times of these major drops.

Laxalt was just on Fox noise saying people don’t realize some of the outstanding Clark vote is ED drop off and isn’t going to be enough to get CCM over the top.

That’s just posturing right? 200k votes out?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

So it's kind of meh but not world-ending then.

She is going to underperform Biden in the district no question, but it's a Biden + 8.8 seat, so she can afford an underperformance, but not a huge one. Right now she seems to be underperforming by about 9% so right on that knife's edge.

How is she doing in Deschutes? I could see a bigger than normal underperformance there.

Leading 53-47 with another 11% left to count

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tina Kotek's lead in the Oregon governor's race now stands at 4.3%, and for some reason no major media outlet, besides the ones in Oregon, have called the race yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone think that since 218-217 is really impossible to get anything passed in - that it’s better for Dems politically if the GOP wins the majority (at that number specifically I mean)

I've said this earlier in the thread: while I'd love to see the Democrats retain both houses, a D Senate and a bare R majority in the House is probably the best case for D prospects in 2024:

1. It allows D's to continue confirming Biden's appointments.

2. It removes any pressure on the D's to try and pass a very progressive agenda around Manchin & Sinema.

3. The R caucus will be an ungovernable clown show that regularly embarrasses itself, and can be blamed for failure to get anything done.

One advantage for the D's if they do hang on is they can keep the J6 committee going, but not having it is a minor loss.  At this point I think the committee has accomplished most of what it can do in terms of persuading the public; the DOJ will handle the criminal investigations.

Respectfully, I do not agree. I think Democrats can pass popular stuff with 218 seats and 51 senate seats. Just make a deal with Sinema

Possibly, but the premise here is that Republicans have the bare House majority.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh, and AZ-06 is now 51-49 after that drop in cased you think it is still callable for the GOP.

How much of this Pima dump was in AZ-06, it seems like barely anything changed in the vote totals?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If those OR-05 numbers were from the Portland part, that isn't particularly surprising. If they're from anywhere else that's amazing for Kotek.

If they were from the Portland section, would they be that good for Ds?

Biden won the Multnomah section by a whopping 65%. McLeod-Skinner current leads by 60% with 805 in. This portion only contains about 50k people total though which isn't nothing but also isn't going to be pumping out votes for McLeod-Skinner like crazy

So it's kind of meh but not world-ending then.

She is going to underperform Biden in the district no question, but it's a Biden + 8.8 seat, so she can afford an underperformance, but not a huge one. Right now she seems to be underperforming by about 9% so right on that knife's edge.

How is she doing in Deschutes? I could see a bigger than normal underperformance there.

Biden won OR-05 portion by 13% but she's only up 5% with 89% of the vote in.

Huh.
As expected.

[MillennialModerate]

Oh, and AZ-06 is now 51-49 after that drop in cased you think it is still callable for the GOP.

How much is in though - and where’s the outstanding ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wish we had exact times of these major drops.

Laxalt was just on Fox noise saying people don’t realize some of the outstanding Clark vote is ED drop off and isn’t going to be enough to get CCM over the top.

That’s just posturing right? 200k votes out?

Ask yourself whether Adam Laxalt or Jon Ralston is a more trustworthy expert on Nevada voting.

[Dani Rose]

Looks like the red puddle dries up in the West.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How strong is OR's late-counted-ballots Dem counting bias?

[ProgressiveModerate]

How strong is OR's late-counted-ballots Dem counting bias?

Oregon is universal VBM so the only counting biased are really disproportionate shares of the vote being in from particularly D/R communities.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Lombardo wins and Hobbs does as well…the gubernatorial map will look like a blue snake, which is pretty cool.

If Sisolak manages to hang on it's a blue snake with a hump.

[Oryxslayer]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

I still think Ciscomani is favored, but from what I know, Engel has a decent shot.

However, these networks may or may not have additional insight we don't have that would allow them to call it. With the data you and I can easily find online right now though, seems extremely premature. Same goes for CO-08 to a lesser extent.

DDHQ  is the only one who has called it, and as someone who has worked for DDHQ before, their decision desk does make mistakes  unlike the major ones. It's cause their brand is speed, and while going earlier than others is rewarding, you do make errors occasionally.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

How strong is OR's late-counted-ballots Dem counting bias?

This is ultimately going to come down to whether she’s having a crazy underperformance in Clackamas or (more likely imo) the outstanding votes there are significantly more Dem than what has been counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wish we had exact times of these major drops.

Laxalt was just on Fox noise saying people don’t realize some of the outstanding Clark vote is ED drop off and isn’t going to be enough to get CCM over the top.

That’s just posturing right? 200k votes out?

Ask yourself whether Adam Laxalt or Jon Ralston is a more trustworthy expert on Nevada voting.

Laxalt and Ralston both have incentive to act in self-interested ways. But Ralston's self-interest is much more closely aligned with not saying bull about what's out and what's not.

[wbrocks67]

AZ-06 has already been called and I see little reason to believe the call is off.

The AP has NOT called this race. DDHQ is the only one who called it.

[Mexican Wolf]

If Lombardo wins and Hobbs does as well…the gubernatorial map will look like a blue snake, which is pretty cool.

If Sisolak manages to hang on it's a blue snake with a hump.

A blue snake that's eaten a kangaroo rat.

[WD]

So outrageous that the FAKE NEWS MEDIA is refusing to call it for Captain Kelly

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

I still think Ciscomani is favored, but from what I know, Engel has a decent shot.

However, these networks may or may not have additional insight we don't have that would allow them to call it. With the data you and I can easily find online right now though, seems extremely premature. Same goes for CO-08 to a lesser extent.

DDHQ  is the only one who has called it, and as someone who has worked for DDHQ before, their decision desk does make mistakes  unlike the major ones. It's cause their brand is speed, and while going earlier than others is rewarding, you do make errors occasionally.

It reminds me of how networks behaved before the 2000 debacle.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

is AZ-6 creeping back into the picture?

I still think Ciscomani is favored, but from what I know, Engel has a decent shot.

However, these networks may or may not have additional insight we don't have that would allow them to call it. With the data you and I can easily find online right now though, seems extremely premature. Same goes for CO-08 to a lesser extent.

DDHQ  is the only one who has called it, and as someone who has worked for DDHQ before, their decision desk does make mistakes  unlike the major ones. It's cause their brand is speed, and while going earlier than others is rewarding, you do make errors occasionally.

It reminds me of how networks behaved before the 2000 debacle.

One of the greatest lines in Election Night history:

"You're retracting??"

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1590874407287029760?s=20&t=sE66V2sKgfdPZkg...
Arguably the biggest thing to see yet. And there will still probably be like 5% more from stragglers.

Key points:

almost 1 milion LA
almost 400k OC
110K Placer
240K Riverside
105K Kern.

That's going to put a heck of a dent in the Republican HPV advantage.

I think their HPV advantage is already built in given how antivax they are.