Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[John Dule]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

[South Dakota Democrat]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

A candidate conceding means absolutely nothing in terms of calling races.

Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

One thing that probably needs to be discussed more when analyzing elections is luck.  In 2020, Republicans won most of the very close races.  This year, it looks like Democrats are going to win the lion's share of the races with small margins.  Especially in a 435 member body, something like that is going to come down to luck.  Wasserman is actually saying that we might wind up with a GCB of close to R+4.  If that's true, it changes some of the analysis from wondering why Democrats virtually tied the election to understanding that we hit some bad luck.

No. Voters (particularly women) took action to prevent the abolition of long-held rights and further breakdown of the separation of church and state. You are in the minority, and the sooner ya'll face that the easier it will be to win elections.

[Sestak]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

I think waiting to see what the first few CA mail dumps look like before calling the races there is at least defensible. The rest yeah (although in the D vs D races I think it’s just an editorial choice to not add seats to the count without naming the elected member).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

The NYT outsources its calls to the AP, if I remember correctly.  I'll note that they had to uncall a race in both 2018 and 2020 (although 2020's wound up being correct all along), so they might be being cautious.

[John Dule]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

A candidate conceding means absolutely nothing in terms of calling races.

Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting.

If the candidate is conceding, that means they don't see a path to victory based on whatever inside polling and race analysis they have. The campaigns are able to hyper-focus on every possible victory strategy in their particular race, whereas the pundits have to watch the whole board. If a Republican is conceding a race, that tells me they won't be coming back.

Peltola was at 39% in the first round of the special election and was up against the exact same candidates, and she still made it over 50. Now she's at 47 in the first round. Maybe putting it on the NYT board would be premature, but I'm calling it in my head.

[John Dule]

I would also say IL-17, that abhorrent gerrymander, should be called for the Democrats at this point. Ds at 199 in the John Dule House Tabulation.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Interesting that the Michigan pro-choice measure won by 14, while in Kansas the anti-choice measure lost by 18.

Perhaps it was because the MI measure was an outright affirmation of the right to an abortion, all the way up until viability at that (and even then ensuring abortion is protected for "mental health" reasons), while the Kansas amendment wanted to change the Constitution to get rid of the existing right to abortion in Kansas. Voters in general are often reluctant to change the status quo.

Otherwise I don't know how else to explain it, because Michigan is clearly still way to the left of Kansas.

Voters in KS were voting solely on Abortion, and so that was the main draw to go vote. In MI that was not the case. I guess those who feel most strongly on it must be skewing pro-choice, at least after Dobbs, which makes sense.

[TheReckoning]

It’s honestly pretty irresponsible for networks to not call races once it becomes obvious who wins. The longer elections drag on, the more opportunity there is to steal them in the eyes of those prone to conspiracy thinking.

[Storr]

I would also say IL-17, that abhorrent gerrymander, should be called for the Democrats at this point. Ds at 199 in the John Dule House Tabulation.

CNN called it a few hours ago.

[Hammy]

It’s really shocking how slowly Maryland counts their votes and nobody seems to care.

If Maryland ever ended up close, it would certainly get noticed and become an issue.

[South Dakota Democrat]

NYT are being pansies on their House calls. They have the Democrats at only 189 seats when they could easily add in the five D-versus-D California seats. They also haven't called NM-2 or CO-8-- haven't the Republican candidates in both of those seats conceded, or am I mistaken? ME-2 should also be called. And at what point can we call AK given the combination of the special election results and the fact that Peltola is actually outperforming her special election first-round count by eight points?

On the R side, Young Kim's race and Zinke's race should have been called by now too. I also find it really hard to believe that Kermit Jones is coming back in CA-03 just based on my knowledge of the state. And AZ-02, which if I recall correctly is an R gerrymander, is 80% reporting with the Republican up eight points. I would personally put the Dems at 198 and the Republicans at 211 right now. Does anyone disagree with a substantial portion of this?

A candidate conceding means absolutely nothing in terms of calling races.

Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting.

If the candidate is conceding, that means they don't see a path to victory based on whatever inside polling and race analysis they have. The campaigns are able to hyper-focus on every possible victory strategy in their particular race, whereas the pundits have to watch the whole board. If a Republican is conceding a race, that tells me they won't be coming back.

Peltola was at 39% in the first round of the special election and was up against the exact same candidates, and she still made it over 50. Now she's at 47 in the first round. Maybe putting it on the NYT board would be premature, but I'm calling it in my head.

They don't call a race until they're 99.5% sure it will go that way though.  Candidates do not have to be 99.5% sure in order to concede, if that's their desire. 

You're free to call it in your head, but it would be absolutely foolish for them to project it before the ranked choices are tabulated.

[7,052,770]

Currently Republicans lead in 220 seats and Democrats in 215. (This includes CO-3 as a D seat.)

What are people's thoughts on these races where Republicans currently lead? Possibilities to end up going D?
California 13 (open)
California 22 (Valadao)
Maryland 6 (Trone)
New York 22 (open)
Oregon 5 (open)

[Lief 🗽]

Of those Trone is Likely D and the rest are toss-ups IMO.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Currently Republicans lead in 220 seats and Democrats in 215. (This includes CO-3 as a D seat.)

What are people's thoughts on these races where Republicans currently lead? Possibilities to end up going D?
California 13 (open)
California 22 (Valadao)
Maryland 6 (Trone)
New York 22 (open)
Oregon 5 (open)

Trone is going to win, as a lot of Montgomery County is out.  The others are more likely to go Republican, but the CA ones are uncertain (there are also a couple CA ones where Democrats currently lead but Republicans could mount a comeback).

[Sestak]

Currently Republicans lead in 220 seats and Democrats in 215. (This includes CO-3 as a D seat.)

What are people's thoughts on these races where Republicans currently lead? Possibilities to end up going D?
California 13 (open)
California 22 (Valadao)
Maryland 6 (Trone)
New York 22 (open)
Oregon 5 (open)

MD-06 is the only one of these I'm pretty sure about - it will go D.


CA-13 easier for Dems than CA-22 (and I kind of expect Dems to win the former in the end, no clue on the latter) but it's going to be hard to tell until we see how the mail dumps start going.

No clue on the other two.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1590430722753691649?s=20&t=E41cpko-0D4_7L7...

Ah! So that's why the measure was on the ballot. When NOVA listed it among the issues he voted on, I was actually leaning slightly against it thinking maybe it was best not to have such a restriction in case a legislator had a very embarrassing situation requiring repeated absences that he couldn't share for getting an excuse etc, but now I realize it's just to shut down anti-democratic Republican and transients. Bully for Oregon passing it!

Still getting caught up on the thread, but yeah pretty much this.

Had the car for one day, with my wife with a day off, so instead of commuting via mass transit, tell her I will drop her "clothing bag" off at the downtown post office in the factory town next door.

Next thing you know I got one of multiple petition canvassers greeting me, while I am simply dropping off the mail.

Already knew there were massive issues with PUB walkouts consistently delaying more Progressive Policy positions on certain items, especially with #TimberUnity, consistently blocking Climate Change issues...

Was aware that was a citizens initiative floating around, but reality is that it's a bit harder these days to shop citizens initiatives in OR these days (regardless of reactionary or progressive), because private property rights have been increasingly utilized to use TRESS charges, which I believe there was an OR Supreme Court ruling on, so basically now most folx collecting sigs for ballot initiative are on the streets, and now rarely in places like shopping centers, strip malls, etc...

OCA (Funded by external sources) used ballot collective initiatives to support state and local ballot initiatives, most infamously for their Anti-Gay ballot props, but also Anti-Abortion refs in OR in the late '80s and early '90s.

Legal Right to the "Public Square" for collecting ballot sigs for Initiatives drops further as we head into all of the Anti-Tax initiatives adds increasingly, adds to the hits, not to mention the whole deal about "paid signature gatherers", which basically pissed off tons of Oregonians, simply because it becomes a paid profit gig and not ordinary citizens volunteering on the public square, which is now increasingly "private property"...

Digress--- but yet it is a 100% solid concept, but yet regardless could well backfire, especially since DEMS in TX used that not that many years back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s really shocking how slowly Maryland counts their votes and nobody seems to care.

If Maryland ever ended up close, it would certainly get noticed and become an issue.

Yeah.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/BryanDawsonUSA/status/1590404839913455616

That kinda ignores the fact that the late counted vote is kinda red.

Just heard from Kornaki that there are 30K outstanding mail votes from Pima County as well. Strongly democratic.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

No new news out of CO-03?

[Ferguson97]

Currently Republicans lead in 220 seats and Democrats in 215. (This includes CO-3 as a D seat.)

What are people's thoughts on these races where Republicans currently lead? Possibilities to end up going D?
California 13 (open)
California 22 (Valadao)
Maryland 6 (Trone)
New York 22 (open)
Oregon 5 (open)

I think Dems win CA-13 and MD-06. The GOP wins CA-22, NY-22, and OR-05.

Which would be... 218R-217D. Wow.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/BryanDawsonUSA/status/1590404839913455616

That kinda ignores the fact that the late counted vote is kinda red.

Just heard from Kornaki that there are 30K outstanding mail votes from Pima County as well. Strongly democratic.

It's also not actually a "fact." We don't know if the late counted vote will be red this year just because it was in 2020, an unusual year. It certainly wasn't in 2018.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

I've had this exact thought, and I feel like Valadao is the only one who might feasibly take that offer. I so wish, though.

...I'm not gay, but a House majority is a House majority.

[7,052,770]

Currently Republicans lead in 220 seats and Democrats in 215. (This includes CO-3 as a D seat.)

What are people's thoughts on these races where Republicans currently lead? Possibilities to end up going D?
California 13 (open)
California 22 (Valadao)
Maryland 6 (Trone)
New York 22 (open)
Oregon 5 (open)

On the other hand, here are some seats led by Democrats (in the 215) that could end up R:
Arizona 1 (Schweikert)
Colorado 3 (Boebert)
California 26 (Browney) - is this one really vulnerable? Browney is up by 8 points
California 41 (Calvert)
Washington 3 (open)

To get to 218, Democrats probably need 8 of these 10, although there are a few other seats on both sides that could possibly flip. (CA-27?)

[Epaminondas]

From the New York Times:

Senator Lisa Murkowski, a moderate Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka.  Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23.  

Why not just publish all the second and third rankings of the counted vote on election night?
I'm a big supporter of RCV in general, but I don't understand why they hold off communicating the results like this.

This sounds reasonable, but it would complicate the logistics of tabulating until technology is brought in. Neither Ireland nor Australia (nor Maine) - which also use ranked ballot - publish second rankings, instead it also takes a few days.
It's just one small drawback in a vastly superior electoral system. I'm sure one day it will be done within the day, once the format catches on in the US.