Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For about 1 in every 30 things he says Tracey manages to actually stumble on a pretty good and overlooked point even if the rest is complete eye roll worthy nonsense. I think this is the 1-in-30 for his election coverage:

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1590189274737291265?t=ekNfpVawBGkZOuppVk8SSw&...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but Herrell conceded to Vasquez earlier today. Given her behavior in 2018, I'm pleasantly surprised.

I'm happy the NM gerrymander worked out, I was pretty skeptical of it.

Being happy about gerrymandering is not only anti-democratic, it’s pro cheating. If a Republican posted this, they would be called a fascist.

It is fighting fire with fire. If Florida's GOP can take multiple seats through gerrymandering, why can't Dems elsewhere flip one? The easy solution is to end it on a national level of course, but I don't think Republicans want to do that to stop the occasional cut throat efforts in states like New Mexico when they have so much upside in Florida, Texas, and basically everywhere else across the south.

Fighting fire with fire burns everyone to death. Gerrymandering is inexcusable regardless of the circumstances.

As a resident of Texas and a Democratic-leaning person who usually has had R representatives, I would not consider the gerrymandering you see in my state as inexcusable. If anything, I've seen how lines drawn to protect congressman have come to fail them.
Gerrymanders can fail. That's just being an occupational hazard of a politician whose party has gerrymandered things in your favor. That's why Pete Sessions is no longer in Congress.

Actually Pete Sessions carpetbagged over to another, redder district and won there.

Wait, what? That's the same Pete Sessions? I assumed it was someone with the same name but different person and failed to look at it further.
All I can say is lol...

Fun fact: Pete is the son of the late William Sessions, who was Director of the FBI from 1987 to 1993. You might recognize him from the WINNERS DON’T DO DRUGS message in those old arcade games:

Oh! That's fascinating.
It does not surprise me, given how well-connected he seems to be in Texas Republican circles...Most of politics is basically networking anyway...

[Dani Rose]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but Herrell conceded to Vasquez earlier today. Given her behavior in 2018, I'm pleasantly surprised.

I'm happy the NM gerrymander worked out, I was pretty skeptical of it.

Being happy about gerrymandering is not only anti-democratic, it’s pro cheating. If a Republican posted this, they would be called a fascist.

It is fighting fire with fire. If Florida's GOP can take multiple seats through gerrymandering, why can't Dems elsewhere flip one? The easy solution is to end it on a national level of course, but I don't think Republicans want to do that to stop the occasional cut throat efforts in states like New Mexico when they have so much upside in Florida, Texas, and basically everywhere else across the south.

Fighting fire with fire burns everyone to death. Gerrymandering is inexcusable regardless of the circumstances.

I don't want to beat this argument into the ground, and I'm not saying this to be snide but rather to ask you a legitimate question: do you think that the Cthonic abomination of political thought that is the Texas congressional map should be allowed to stand?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Why are the Networks refusing to call the House I don't get. The Numbers ain't there for Democrats.

They're not going to call the House either way until there are 218 called races for a party. (Obviously?)

LOL, the House was called during the 11pm in 2018 and during the 9pm ET Hour in 2020 despite Democrats not having reached 218 Seats.

I actually have changed my mind. I am now hoping for a Democratic House Win so that the Republican Party can get finally rid of Trump.

That is way more important.

Are you stupid or ignorant?  Seriously.  Obviously this is different than 2018, as that wasn't close in terms of seats, whereas this will be.

How is this different from 2020. A 222-213 House was also close.

That one honestly shouldn't have been projected that early.  Their model was way off, if I remember correctly.  Similar to how Fox News was in no position to project Biden had won AZ, even if it turned out to come to pass in the end.

If you think that's bad, wait until you hear about the Georgia 1992 instacall when that turned out to be the closest state in the country. To say nothing of the Florida calls/uncalls in 2000. The media used to be MUCH more reckless with early calls.

I'm well aware, my dude, as well as the New Hampshire install in 1992, and the 1996 New Hampshire Senate call they had to retract.

[TheReckoning]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but Herrell conceded to Vasquez earlier today. Given her behavior in 2018, I'm pleasantly surprised.

I'm happy the NM gerrymander worked out, I was pretty skeptical of it.

Being happy about gerrymandering is not only anti-democratic, it’s pro cheating. If a Republican posted this, they would be called a fascist.

It is fighting fire with fire. If Florida's GOP can take multiple seats through gerrymandering, why can't Dems elsewhere flip one? The easy solution is to end it on a national level of course, but I don't think Republicans want to do that to stop the occasional cut throat efforts in states like New Mexico when they have so much upside in Florida, Texas, and basically everywhere else across the south.

Fighting fire with fire burns everyone to death. Gerrymandering is inexcusable regardless of the circumstances.

I don't want to beat this argument into the ground, and I'm not saying this to be snide but rather to ask you a legitimate question: do you think that the Cthonic abomination of political thought that is the Texas congressional map should be allowed to stand?

Obviously not. Gerrymandering ideally would be banned by constitutional amendment, but state legislatures will never vote away their ability to create districts. I can understand why Democrats would gerrymander since Republicans do, but something about it still feels dirty to me.

[Dani Rose]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but Herrell conceded to Vasquez earlier today. Given her behavior in 2018, I'm pleasantly surprised.

I'm happy the NM gerrymander worked out, I was pretty skeptical of it.

Being happy about gerrymandering is not only anti-democratic, it’s pro cheating. If a Republican posted this, they would be called a fascist.

It is fighting fire with fire. If Florida's GOP can take multiple seats through gerrymandering, why can't Dems elsewhere flip one? The easy solution is to end it on a national level of course, but I don't think Republicans want to do that to stop the occasional cut throat efforts in states like New Mexico when they have so much upside in Florida, Texas, and basically everywhere else across the south.

Fighting fire with fire burns everyone to death. Gerrymandering is inexcusable regardless of the circumstances.

I don't want to beat this argument into the ground, and I'm not saying this to be snide but rather to ask you a legitimate question: do you think that the Cthonic abomination of political thought that is the Texas congressional map should be allowed to stand?

Obviously not. Gerrymandering ideally would be banned by constitutional amendment, but state legislatures will never vote away their ability to create districts. I can understand why Democrats would gerrymander since Republicans do, but something about it still feels dirty to me.

Then we're in agreement, refreshingly. I believe in using whatever tools the enemy is presently using against you, but I also very deeply believe that a constitutional ban on gerrymandering should be the political endgame of literally everyone of any credibility. I don't like needing to resort to cheap tricks any more than anyone else and I want this particular one to be disintegrated with prejudice.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Gerrymandering is part of the system. Within some bounds, it is a wonderful practice, one both parties can use.
I am glad IL Ds drew the lines in my favor and helped my party win at least a near-majority.

If I ever add a downvote feature to the forum, this post is going to rank high on the list of reasons why

I doubt this is wholly serious, but please don't turn Atlas into Reddit.

I still really dislike the idea yea, but the general nature of that post is like symbolic (to me) of why a downvote button could serve a reasonable purpose

It's not needed anyway. We do a perfectly good job "ratio-ing" people by recommending posts mocking each other.

[Storr]

All of us while Nevada, Arizona, and California count votes:

[2016]

The Point I am making about the Media was: Nobody trusts them because the vast Majority are Leftwing, DNC Propaganda Networks who have no decency.

[7,052,770]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

[7,052,770]

The Point I am making about the Media was: Nobody trusts them because the vast Majority are Leftwing, DNC Propaganda Networks who have no decency.

"Nobody" trusts them? Or just no one who thinks like you?

[Dani Rose]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

I've had this exact thought, and I feel like Valadao is the only one who might feasibly take that offer. I so wish, though.

[2016]

The Point I am making about the Media was: Nobody trusts them because the vast Majority are Leftwing, DNC Propaganda Networks who have no decency.

"Nobody" trusts them? Or just no one who thinks like you?

I watched a lot of various networks over the last few weeks leading up to the Election and 87 % was negative on Republicans. The Media is and always will be the DNC Arm. They are hired by the DNC.

[South Dakota Democrat]

The Point I am making about the Media was: Nobody trusts them because the vast Majority are Leftwing, DNC Propaganda Networks who have no decency.

"Nobody" trusts them? Or just no one who thinks like you?

I watched a lot of various networks over the last few weeks leading up to the Election and 87 % was negative on Republicans. The Media is and always will be the DNC Arm. They are hired by the DNC.

That's because the Republican Party is full of a bunch of election denying crazy people.  I'm sorry that the truth hurts.  Do you need a safe space?

[Crumpets]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

I've had this exact thought, and I feel like Valadao is the only one who might feasibly take that offer. I so wish, though.

And then some Henry Cuellar type also flips and it's all for naught.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s really shocking how slowly Maryland counts their votes and nobody seems to care.

[John Dule]

One thing that probably needs to be discussed more when analyzing elections is luck.  In 2020, Republicans won most of the very close races.  This year, it looks like Democrats are going to win the lion's share of the races with small margins.  Especially in a 435 member body, something like that is going to come down to luck.  Wasserman is actually saying that we might wind up with a GCB of close to R+4.  If that's true, it changes some of the analysis from wondering why Democrats virtually tied the election to understanding that we hit some bad luck.

Agreed, this was just bad luck and you guys should not change your strategy at all.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1590552450649333760

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1590551654193311749

[7,052,770]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

I've had this exact thought, and I feel like Valadao is the only one who might feasibly take that offer. I so wish, though.

Ironically if Democrats get to 217 or 218, Valadao's seat is probably one they get.

[Oryxslayer]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

This has happened before in 1930-32, and if it happens we will rediscover just how procedurally awkward the chamber runs with such a margin.

My honest prediction if things end up this narrow is that someone flips into the majority (possibly via going indie) since  there are  a few on both sides who reasonably could justify it, or a 'caucus of power' similar but different to the IDC forms which includes people on both sides to deny both partisan blocks a majority that doesn't go through them.

[Alben Barkley]

One thing that probably needs to be discussed more when analyzing elections is luck.  In 2020, Republicans won most of the very close races.  This year, it looks like Democrats are going to win the lion's share of the races with small margins.  Especially in a 435 member body, something like that is going to come down to luck.  Wasserman is actually saying that we might wind up with a GCB of close to R+4.  If that's true, it changes some of the analysis from wondering why Democrats virtually tied the election to understanding that we hit some bad luck.

FiveThirtyEight covered this. There are more districts where Republicans are running unopposed than Democrats, inflating their margin in the House Popular Vote. Also the localized red wave in Florida alone probably helped inflate the margin further.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing that probably needs to be discussed more when analyzing elections is luck.  In 2020, Republicans won most of the very close races.  This year, it looks like Democrats are going to win the lion's share of the races with small margins.  Especially in a 435 member body, something like that is going to come down to luck.  Wasserman is actually saying that we might wind up with a GCB of close to R+4.  If that's true, it changes some of the analysis from wondering why Democrats virtually tied the election to understanding that we hit some bad luck.

FiveThirtyEight covered this. There are more districts where Republicans are running unopposed than Democrats, inflating their margin in the House Popular Vote. Also the localized red wave in Florida alone probably helped inflate the margin further.

Speaking of which, what is the House NPV looking like?

[Crumpets]

I'm gonna make a bold prediction about the next two years: Joe Biden will not face impeachment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm gonna make a bold prediction about the next two years: Joe Biden will not face impeachment.

I wonder what reaction this take would have got 24 hours ago, when the extent of the D overperformance in the House was not as clear.

[Alben Barkley]

Interesting that the Michigan pro-choice measure won by 14, while in Kansas the anti-choice measure lost by 18.

Perhaps it was because the MI measure was an outright affirmation of the right to an abortion, all the way up until viability at that (and even then ensuring abortion is protected for "mental health" reasons), while the Kansas amendment wanted to change the Constitution to get rid of the existing right to abortion in Kansas. Voters in general are often reluctant to change the status quo.

Otherwise I don't know how else to explain it, because Michigan is clearly still way to the left of Kansas.