Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sunak will become the First Indian PM on Diwali too.

[Aurelius]

If Mordaunt wins we'll be doing this all over again in a month, won't we?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If Mordaunt wins we'll be doing this all over again in a month, won't we?

1. Only if Mordaunt wins?
2. She won't.

[Pres Mike]

Johnson probably would have won the leadership vote had it gone to the nationwide rank and file.

But than what? No way he can govern. Not enough MPs to support his government.

I’m not a fan of Johnson, but he won a large majority for his party in 2019. Conservative voters like him. Including those in the “red wall”.

The conservatives deserve to lose in 2024 if they ignore the will of voters

[Beet]

Congratulations, India. You've finally turned the tables on your old colonial masters. Now all that's left is to sell the UK to Infosys, East-India company style.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Congratulations, India. You've finally turned the tables on your old colonial masters. Now all that's left is to sell the UK to Infosys, East-India company style.

This seems low key xenophobic

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1584095120571260928

We all know definitive statements from Boris always last a full day.

Called it.

[Blair]

It’s very funny that very few people believed Boris had the nominations which shows well how much he was trusted even though imho he probably did just about have enough.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So the Conservative Party has had;

<sup>The first wheelchair using MP (Arthur Kavanaugh, 1866)
The first Jewish Prime Minister (Benjamin Disraeli, 1868)
The first sitting woman MP (Viscountess Astor, 1918)
The first woman Prime Minister (She who shall not be named, 1979)
The first Hindu MP (Shailesh Vara, 2005)
The first Jewish Speaker of the House (John Bercow, 2009)
The first south Asian woman MP (Priti Patel, 2010)
The first South Asian cabinet member (Sajid Javid, 2014)
The first British Burmese MP (Paul Scully, 2015)
The first British Chinese MP (Alan Mak, 2015)
The first Buddhist MP (Suella Braverman, 2015)
The first Hindu cabinet member (Priti Patel, 2016)
The first Lesbian cabinet member (Justine Greening, 2016)
The first Transgender MP (Jaime Wallis, 2022)

And now almost certainly

The first South Asian Prime Minister (Rishi Sunak, 2022)</sup>

[Torrain]

Michael Gove, Priti Patel, and James Cleverly have all come out in support of Sunak, within minutes of one another - definitely feels coordinated.

Sunak now has about 166 public backers - he’s probably going to have 50% of MPs publicly declared for him by the time nominations close. Feels like a last push to get Mordaunt to concede.

[😥]

I do believe that Sunak prime-ministership is a bad for Ukraine. I understand it is more likely than not that he will become PM today, but I just hope this goes to membership, and Conservative members elect Mordaunt

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So the Conservative Party has had;

<sup>The first wheelchair using MP (Arthur Kavanaugh, 1866)
The first Jewish Prime Minister (Benjamin Disraeli, 1868)
The first sitting woman MP (Viscountess Astor, 1918)
The first woman Prime Minister (She who shall not be named, 1979)
The first Hindu MP (Shailesh Vara, 2005)
The first Jewish Speaker of the House (John Bercow, 2009)
The first south Asian woman MP (Priti Patel, 2010)
The first South Asian cabinet member (Sajid Javid, 2014)
The first British Burmese MP (Paul Scully, 2015)
The first British Chinese MP (Alan Mak, 2015)
The first Buddhist MP (Suella Braverman, 2015)
The first Hindu cabinet member (Priti Patel, 2016)
The first Lesbian cabinet member (Justine Greening, 2016)
The first Transgender MP (Jaime Wallis, 2022)

And now almost certainly

The first South Asian Prime Minister (Rishi Sunak, 2022)</sup>

TIL I learned John Bercow is Jewish.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have to be careful with 'firsts' lists, I find.

A large number of female MPs of South Asian descent were elected in 2010, mostly Labour: as well as Patel (Gujarati via Uganda) there was Rushanara Ali (Bengali), Shabana Mahmood (Mirpuri), Yasmin Qureshi (Punjabi) and Valerie Vaz (Goan via Yemen).

It's also worth noting that Ashok Kumar (Langbaurgh/Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland 1991-92, 1997-2010) was from a Hindu background even if he was not religious himself. A little awkward as he wouldn't like to have been thought of in communal terms, but society is what it is and so on.

[Cassius]

So Mordaunt’s ego is in fact bigger than Johnson’s.

[Blair]

Really strange that she hasn’t dropped out.

[TheTide]

ERG not backing anyone.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Really strange that she hasn’t dropped out.

Maybe that happens at 1:55.

[Conservatopia]

I do believe that Sunak prime-ministership is a bad for Ukraine. I understand it is more likely than not that he will become PM today, but I just hope this goes to membership, and Conservative members elect Mordaunt

I agree with your sentiment - Sunak will probably be more like Macron in his support for Ukraine. However many decisions take place in cabinet and there's a decent chance that the Foreign and Defence Secretaries will be big Ukraine supporters.

Labour's frontbench is very pro Ukraine too so they will likely hammer Sunak for any weakness he shows on this issue.

My point is that I don't *think* that much will change in the way of British material support for Ukraine. We just might not take a leading role in the Western Alliance on this issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's known that Sunak was much less keen on serious material support for Ukraine than most of the rest of the cabinet earlier this year. Against that, public opinion is overwhelmingly in favour of serious support for Ukraine at present and this would make backtracking on that politically difficult and maybe even actively foolish. But we shall see.

[😥]

I do believe that Sunak prime-ministership is a bad for Ukraine. I understand it is more likely than not that he will become PM today, but I just hope this goes to membership, and Conservative members elect Mordaunt

I agree with your sentiment - Sunak will probably be more like Macron in his support for Ukraine. However many decisions take place in cabinet and there's a decent chance that the Foreign and Defence Secretaries will be big Ukraine supporters.

Labour's frontbench is very pro Ukraine too so they will likely hammer Sunak for any weakness he shows on this issue.

My point is that I don't *think* that much will change in the way of British material support for Ukraine. We just might not take a leading role in the Western Alliance on this issue.

And that's bad. Great Britain was one of the leaders in supporting Ukraine under Johnson and Truss. Both Johnson and Truss took a rather tough stance on Russia, which made us very happy here in Ukraine. And now I expect from Sunak, as you said, Macron-style eternal talk about the "necessity of negotiations" and the lack of decisive steps. If from the side of Johnson and Truss I could see behind-the-scenes pressure on other leaders like Scholz regarding, for example, the supply of tanks to Ukraine, then from the side of Sunak I expect public solidarity with Scholz

[Blair]

Almost wet myself laughing at some MPs and backers of Boris being angry that he pulled out after leading people to the top of the hill- there was even a threat that his third bid wouldn’t be as popular!

If only he had form for letting people down…

[Cassius]

Penny Moron’s backers trotting out the old ‘chairman of the board’ line.

Basically code for ‘I don’t think my candidate is up to the job but I’m backing them anyway’.

[Blair]

I wouldn’t worry too much re Sunak and Ukraine- the position taken by Boris was the orthodox position taken by the MOD and various other ‘blob’ parts of the foreign policy organs in the U.K. and he would face a very serious revolt on his right if he did change it- his cabinet appointments will reflect the tone, but with the state of the domestic scene there’s a chance he outsources it all.

I think the slight risk is that the U.K. will not be as assertive as it was at the start.

[Sestak]

Should we expect nomination results immediately at the top of the hour or will there be a delay?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sunak has almost 200 endorsements now, which means Mordaunt would need nearly two-thirds of all remaining MPs.