Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[Middle-aged Europe]

From the BBC liveblog...

Former Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith has given his take on why former PM Boris Johnson may have decided not to put his name forward in the leadership race in the end.

Speaking on LBC radio's Tonight with Andrew Marr programme, Sir Iain says Johnson ended up "begging people for votes" after flying back from a holiday in the Caribbean over the weekend.

"He'd made no plans, he got no team," Sir Iain says.

"He kind of expected, I think, when he arrived, that there would be at least 150 people acclaiming him, and this would grow to the majority. That didn't happen."

Sir Iain says Johnson then found himself "struggling and begging people for votes. That was demeaning really."

He adds that when Johnson then asked other candidates to back him, "the others said, 'no, the only deal we'd do with you is if you were serving us, not the other way round.'

"And that of course didn't suit him."

There was no immediate response from Johnson's team to Sir Iain's remarks.

[pikachu]

When I was a history student in the UK most of the classes I took had some degree of racial undertones (one class was literally just about Racism in the UK).

The main thing I learned is, while it feels natural to compare UK racism to US racism there is, in reality, very little to compare. The demographics are different, the history is wildly different, the underlying cultural attitude is different, the political system is incredibly different.

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

Ehh…10 years ago I would’ve said no, but american politics have gotten weird enough that we’re on the verge of the first Muslim senator being a Pennsylvania Republican who’s served in a foreign military.

[MABA 2020]

This is the best decision the Tory party could have made at this point, I expect Rishi will make the next election closer than anyone else.

The question is only whether he lasts to 2024. I guess they can't put in another guy before holding an election now.

I don't think he'll do anything too crazy, Truss already crashed the pound and it's not like the polling can get much worse. So yeah I expect him to last until the next election.

(Although I just remembered I said the same thing about Truss lasting until the next election)

[omar04]

When I was a history student in the UK most of the classes I took had some degree of racial undertones (one class was literally just about Racism in the UK).

The main thing I learned is, while it feels natural to compare UK racism to US racism there is, in reality, very little to compare. The demographics are different, the history is wildly different, the underlying cultural attitude is different, the political system is incredibly different.

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

No, if only because the norms around parachute seats are very different.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

When I was a history student in the UK most of the classes I took had some degree of racial undertones (one class was literally just about Racism in the UK).

The main thing I learned is, while it feels natural to compare UK racism to US racism there is, in reality, very little to compare. The demographics are different, the history is wildly different, the underlying cultural attitude is different, the political system is incredibly different.

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

Candidate nomination in the UK can be very top-down, parties give their star candidates easy seats even if they have no connection to the area. Sunak is from Southampton and represents a North Yorkshire district. But since the US has a very bottom-up candidate selection process, the party leaders can't simply parachute candidates to random seats, so you don't see minorities getting elected in very white rural areas as is the case for Sunak in his seat.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I guess I didn't really answer the question, so I'd put it this way - I think a man named Rishi Sunak would struggle to win a Republican primary in a rural Ohio seat, especially if he isn't Christian. But if he did get the nomination in a safe Republican district, he would probably go on to win in the general because of partisan polarization. I'd also say that a Hindu would be more likely to pull this off than a Muslim - a "Rishi Sunak" would struggle in a rural primary, but a "Sajid Javid" would struggle even more. But in a general, if a seat is solidly Republican, the extent to which racism affects their popularity would be overshadowed by partisan polarization

[Хahar 🤔]

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

Yes, absolutely. A senatorial candidate whose wife is Indian is going to win rural Ohio by a large margin next month. The right-wing candidate for Senate in Alaska is white, but she has a Congolese name. In 2014, Neel Kashkari won easily in remote rural California (topping out at 72.8% in Modoc County) while being roundly rejected in the parts of the state where Indians live. A Turk who is at least a nominal Muslim will win rural Pennsylvania this year.

There are differences in the way that race works between America and Britain, but these counterfactuals just don't hold up. Republican voters are perfectly happy to vote for candidates of any race.

[adma]

Also don't forget GOP governor cases like Bobby Jindal and Nicki Haley (even if the latter had an "English" name)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is the best decision the Tory party could have made at this point, I expect Rishi will make the next election closer than anyone else.

The question is only whether he lasts to 2024. I guess they can't put in another guy before holding an election now.

I don't think he'll do anything too crazy, Truss already crashed the pound and it's not like the polling can get much worse. So yeah I expect him to last until the next election.

(Although I just remembered I said the same thing about Truss lasting until the next election)

Is there really a young-ish male conservative of Indian descent who won, say, two or more elections in a conservative, White-majority state in the American south? I can't think of any, particularly in some of the more ethnically diverse states like, say, Louisiana.

[Badger]

When I was a history student in the UK most of the classes I took had some degree of racial undertones (one class was literally just about Racism in the UK).

The main thing I learned is, while it feels natural to compare UK racism to US racism there is, in reality, very little to compare. The demographics are different, the history is wildly different, the underlying cultural attitude is different, the political system is incredibly different.

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

Quite possibly if they won the Republican primary. Which would be entirely possible if the candidate was an evangible christian, hit all the right buttons on social and economic issues, perhaps had work their way up first is a State Rep or state senator, etc.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is the best decision the Tory party could have made at this point, I expect Rishi will make the next election closer than anyone else.

The question is only whether he lasts to 2024. I guess they can't put in another guy before holding an election now.

I don't think he'll do anything too crazy, Truss already crashed the pound and it's not like the polling can get much worse. So yeah I expect him to last until the next election.

(Although I just remembered I said the same thing about Truss lasting until the next election)

Is there really a young-ish male conservative of Indian descent who won, say, two or more elections in a conservative, White-majority state in the American south? I can't think of any, particularly in some of the more ethnically diverse states like, say, Louisiana.

I’d say Nikki Haley is the better example than Bobby Jindal Given :

- Jindal actively tried to shun his Indian Roots while Haley multiple times talked about how she is proud to be Indian

- South Carolina is probably historically one of the 3 most racist states if not the most racist

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

Yes, absolutely. A senatorial candidate whose wife is Indian is going to win rural Ohio by a large margin next month. The right-wing candidate for Senate in Alaska is white, but she has a Congolese name. In 2014, Neel Kashkari won easily in remote rural California (topping out at 72.8% in Modoc County) while being roundly rejected in the parts of the state where Indians live. A Turk who is at least a nominal Muslim will win rural Pennsylvania this year.

There are differences in the way that race works between America and Britain, but these counterfactuals just don't hold up. Republican voters are perfectly happy to vote for candidates of any race.

I fail to see how you prove your point. There’s a difference between voting for a Republican nominee in the general then in the primary. Have a minority wife doesn’t change anything, i doubt most Americans could name any political spouses outside Dr. Biden. I also doubt most recognize Tshibaka as Congolese (I assumed it was Russian).

My point still stands. Just looking at raw numbers, America has a *much* larger minority population then the UK, yet the Republican Party currently has less then 10 minority members in congress.

[Хahar 🤔]

I fail to see how you prove your point. There’s a difference between voting for a Republican nominee in the general then in the primary.

As others have alluded to, I don't recall Rishi Sunak having won a primary election in Richmond (Yorks).

My point still stands. Just looking at raw numbers, America has a *much* larger minority population then the UK, yet the Republican Party currently has less then 10 minority members in congress.

This is because the Republican Party is repulsive to minorities, not because Republican voters are unwilling to vote for minority candidates. There is a difference in that distinction.

[icc]

When I was a history student in the UK most of the classes I took had some degree of racial undertones (one class was literally just about Racism in the UK).

The main thing I learned is, while it feels natural to compare UK racism to US racism there is, in reality, very little to compare. The demographics are different, the history is wildly different, the underlying cultural attitude is different, the political system is incredibly different.

Does anyone think a candidate named Rishi Sunak (MP from rural Yorkshire) would win a congressional seat in rural Ohio?

Candidate nomination in the UK can be very top-down, parties give their star candidates easy seats even if they have no connection to the area. Sunak is from Southampton and represents a North Yorkshire district. But since the US has a very bottom-up candidate selection process, the party leaders can't simply parachute candidates to random seats, so you don't see minorities getting elected in very white rural areas as is the case for Sunak in his seat.

Sort of / not really. Parties will shortlist candidates, but the local members still get a final say - and total stitch ups tend to be more of a Labour than a Conservative thing.

Conservative members have also historically been quite relaxed about selecting MPs with no / very few local connections to the area, including ethnic minority candidates. This is a massive generalisation, but Labour and Lib Dem selectorates generally tend to be focused on selecting someone who will be a good local MP, whereas Conservative Associations often pick more on who they think can achieve high office.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I fail to see how you prove your point. There’s a difference between voting for a Republican nominee in the general then in the primary.

As others have alluded to, I don't recall Rishi Sunak having won a primary election in Richmond (Yorks).

He actually notably underperformed in his first election there, polling 'only' 51% and winning a slightly smaller (but still very large, obviously) percentage majority than Hague had in 2001. I suspect the issue was that he's from literally the other end of the country (can't get much further from Richmond, Yorks. than Southampton and not get wet!) rather than his ethnicity or religion, mind. Hague came shockingly close to losing the by-election there in 1989 because he was from the wrong part of Yorkshire lmao.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we're discussing the electoral implications of Sunak's religion and ethnicity, then the issue won't be the Conservative Party's base, so much as the former BNP supporters that the party has chased with rather more determined enthusiasm than a lot of its own MPs entirely realize since May took over. These two groups are very, very different! The latter are a marginal group in most of the country, but there are significant concentrations in parts of the country with a lot of marginals in 2019. Of course many of those seats are probably gone anyway. Against that, he will almost certainly benefit in constituencies with substantial Hindu populations.

[Zinneke]

There's also Theresa May's citizens of nowhere slur (which was somewhat misinterpreted) that Sunak could fall foul of with slightly less overt racists no? Like that radio caller who questioned if he was really English because he inhabits an Umwelt of Stanford Sillicon Valley people and Indian billionaire moghuls. It wasn't such the race the target but the idea that he isn't particularly tied to England or has skin in the game.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's also Theresa May's citizens of nowhere slur (which was somewhat misinterpreted) that Sunak could fall foul of with slightly less overt racists no? Like that radio caller who questioned if he was really English because he inhabits an Umwelt of Stanford Sillicon Valley people and Indian billionaire moghuls. It wasn't such the race the target but the idea that he isn't particularly tied to England or has skin in the game.

Well, ultimately, that is true of all rich people regardless of ethnicity or nationality. But of course, that only ever gets weaponized against people who happen to look different.

[Continential]

Which constituencies have high Hindu populations?

[Lord Halifax]

Which constituencies have high Hindu populations?

and which ones have a high ex-BNP vote? presumably they're mostly in Lancashire, West Yorkshire and perhaps the West Midlands?

[Zinneke]

There's also Theresa May's citizens of nowhere slur (which was somewhat misinterpreted) that Sunak could fall foul of with slightly less overt racists no? Like that radio caller who questioned if he was really English because he inhabits an Umwelt of Stanford Sillicon Valley people and Indian billionaire moghuls. It wasn't such the race the target but the idea that he isn't particularly tied to England or has skin in the game.

Well, ultimately, that is true of all rich people regardless of ethnicity or nationality. But of course, that only ever gets weaponized against people who happen to look different.

I agree with you that it is more weaponised against successful BAME people but I disagree that all rich people receive that target, there is a certain style and background of Sunak that makes him a prime target, that and his Green Card episode, which makes the traditional rags to riches story look less convincing. Obviously you have some authentocrats like Alan Sugar but you also have people a bit in the middle who don't seem as out of touch as the horrible media/Silicon PLayground moghul stereotype.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Which constituencies have high Hindu populations?

Precise numbers are hard to come by, because a) we don't know the boundaries the next election will happen on and b) the 2021 statistics for religion haven't been released yet. But in 2011 the highest concentrations were in Harrow, Brent, Hounslow, parts of Ilford and in parts of Leicester. In many cases areas with high Hindu populations also have sizeable numbers of Sikhs and or Muslims.

[JimJamUK]

and which ones have a high ex-BNP vote? presumably they're mostly in Lancashire, West Yorkshire and perhaps the West Midlands?

East London (formerly part of Essex) was actually their best area. In 2010 they got 15% in Barking and 11% in Dagenham + Rainham (Hornchurch + Upminster was their 11th best). This area has seen significant demographic change in recent decades, to the point the first 2 constituencies would have a structurally much weaker BNP vote in the hypothetical scenario where they re-emerged as a semi-relevant party. They got over 10% in Rotherham (Rother Valley was also their 9th best) due to outrage over the sexual abuse of children by predominately Pakistani men. They did well in other places with racial tensions like Batley + Spen and Burnley, as well as constituencies with essentially no non-white residents but a lot of concern about immigration nonetheless such as Normanton + Pontefract + Castleford and Morley + Outwood.

Basically, their vote was fairly similar to Brexit and UKIP but without the more middle class traditional Conservative element, with their biggest areas of support often emerging due to local circumstances rather than inherent demographics/attitudes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which constituencies have high Hindu populations?

and which ones have a high ex-BNP vote? presumably they're mostly in Lancashire, West Yorkshire and perhaps the West Midlands?

The BNPs main areas of electoral strength were Eastern Lancashire (most infamously in Burnley), the West Riding of Yorkshire, the urban West Midlands (especially the Potteries and the Black Country) and what might loosely be termed the Thames Estuary, stretching out from (and inclusive of) Barking. They also had less consistent strength in certain parts of the East Midlands (one concentration radiating out from Shirebrook - a major centre of Eastern European immigration - and one radiating out from Leicester), in quite a few other postindustrial areas (parts of the North East, the area around Wrexham, even West Cumberland for a time, etc) and in quite a few New Towns. But, as I say, this tended be more flash-in-the-pan stuff, whereas they were a consistent menace in the first list for quite a while.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Also don't forget GOP governor cases like Bobby Jindal and Nicki Haley (even if the latter had an "English" name)

I think in the case of Bobby Jindal though, him being very vocal about his Christian faith definitely helped, especially in a state like Louisiana.