How will climate migration effect states' voting habits?
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #25 on: March 18, 2023, 10:58:13 PM »


OK, then I was incorrect.  The ~2.5C/5F really is in addition to the 1st century of ~1C/2.5 F warming.  That's significant.

Currently, the "we expect it to snow every winter" line is between D.C. and Virginia Beach, and the  "heavy snow is plausible but rare" line is between Virginia Beach and Charleston, so RCP 6.0 would still basically end snow in the Upper South. 

Plausibly retirees towards the end of the century (who would I suppose be our children and grandchildren), will tend to stay in place to a greater degree as winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest become increasingly mild. This would result in a slowing of the trend of population shifts towards the South. The gap in sunniness should remain, however, so I doubt that this population shift entirely ceases. Active migration out of the South because the climate has become intolerable does not strike me as likely.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2023, 10:14:05 AM »


OK, then I was incorrect.  The ~2.5C/5F really is in addition to the 1st century of ~1C/2.5 F warming.  That's significant.

Currently, the "we expect it to snow every winter" line is between D.C. and Virginia Beach, and the  "heavy snow is plausible but rare" line is between Virginia Beach and Charleston, so RCP 6.0 would still basically end snow in the Upper South. 

Plausibly retirees towards the end of the century (who would I suppose be our children and grandchildren), will tend to stay in place to a greater degree as winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest become increasingly mild. This would result in a slowing of the trend of population shifts towards the South. The gap in sunniness should remain, however, so I doubt that this population shift entirely ceases. Active migration out of the South because the climate has become intolerable does not strike me as likely.

This seems reasonable.  Note that VA is on the bubble.  Given that Virginia Beach today getz heavy snow every 3 or so winters, there would likely still be periodic heavy snow events near DC in RCP 4.5.   I do suspect that we ratchet down toward RCP 4.5 as institutions play catch-up.   

I do wonder what RCP 6.0 does to the Texas cities?  Given that retirees and WFH techies happily tolerate 110F+ dry heat in Arizona, I doubt the I-35 cities would depopulate, but Houston gets hotter than South Florida in midsummer and almost equally humid.  It's also vulnerable to hurricanes.  That could be a big issue.   
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Death of a Salesman
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« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2023, 10:53:49 AM »

OK, then I was incorrect.  The ~2.5C/5F really is in addition to the 1st century of ~1C/2.5 F warming.  That's significant.

Currently, the "we expect it to snow every winter" line is between D.C. and Virginia Beach, and the  "heavy snow is plausible but rare" line is between Virginia Beach and Charleston, so RCP 6.0 would still basically end snow in the Upper South. 

Plausibly retirees towards the end of the century (who would I suppose be our children and grandchildren), will tend to stay in place to a greater degree as winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest become increasingly mild. This would result in a slowing of the trend of population shifts towards the South. The gap in sunniness should remain, however, so I doubt that this population shift entirely ceases. Active migration out of the South because the climate has become intolerable does not strike me as likely.

This seems reasonable.  Note that VA is on the bubble.  Given that Virginia Beach today getz heavy snow every 3 or so winters, there would likely still be periodic heavy snow events near DC in RCP 4.5.   I do suspect that we ratchet down toward RCP 4.5 as institutions play catch-up.   

I do wonder what RCP 6.0 does to the Texas cities?  Given that retirees and WFH techies happily tolerate 110F+ dry heat in Arizona, I doubt the I-35 cities would depopulate, but Houston gets hotter than South Florida in midsummer and almost equally humid.  It's also vulnerable to hurricanes.  That could be a big issue.   

Houston's climate gets worse, and the oil and gas industry is probably much smaller by this point. I'd guess that Houston probably becomes more like Rust Belt cities unless they have a viable alternative industry.
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Kamala's side hoe
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« Reply #28 on: March 22, 2023, 11:46:06 AM »

OK, then I was incorrect.  The ~2.5C/5F really is in addition to the 1st century of ~1C/2.5 F warming.  That's significant.

Currently, the "we expect it to snow every winter" line is between D.C. and Virginia Beach, and the  "heavy snow is plausible but rare" line is between Virginia Beach and Charleston, so RCP 6.0 would still basically end snow in the Upper South. 

Plausibly retirees towards the end of the century (who would I suppose be our children and grandchildren), will tend to stay in place to a greater degree as winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest become increasingly mild. This would result in a slowing of the trend of population shifts towards the South. The gap in sunniness should remain, however, so I doubt that this population shift entirely ceases. Active migration out of the South because the climate has become intolerable does not strike me as likely.

This also has to do with the similarly oppressive summer heat and humidity in the Midwest and Northeast, and fresh water availability limiting the carrying capacity in the West.
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