When will Democrats win Alaska?
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  When will Democrats win Alaska?
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Zedonathin2020
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« on: November 11, 2022, 09:19:00 PM »

Could an eventual Democratic win in this state be inevitable due to climate change? Or will it forever be in the Republican column?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2022, 11:18:22 PM »

It's hard not to imagine a stronger reaction from the oil and gas industry as Democrats get greener, in the near future at least. Further out, increasing interest in the Arctic and the opening of the Northwest Passage might bring growth, but ocean acidification will hurt the fishing industry and a lot of remote Alaska Native villages will disappear with livelihoods of subsistence hunting, fishing, and gathering made impossible. It's hard to say.
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here2view
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2022, 02:06:33 PM »

2032
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2022, 08:05:13 PM »

They should probably contest it in 2024 TBH.  There's a lot of opportunity to up turnout and it's voting dramatically left of 2020 in the congressional elections.  There are a couple of 270 R/268 D electoral college maps that are highly plausible for 2024, so it could actually save them, not to mention the senate seat in 2026.

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Red Wall
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2022, 09:53:44 AM »

They have a shot in 2032 but Mat-Su is what keeps Alaska republican.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2022, 11:04:27 PM »

2028 I think, Alaska is a very urbanized state and Anchorage swinging blue actually dents the margin sizably. It's gettable in 2024 if Biden wins in a landslide though.
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Kamala’s side hoe
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2023, 02:49:10 PM »

Certainly possible by 2028.

Quote
The venture was ultimately approved with three drilling pads. The administration felt it was constrained legally and had few options to cancel or significantly curtail the project – which was initially approved by the Trump administration. The administration determined that legally, courts wouldn’t have allowed them to fully reject the project, two government sources familiar with the approval told CNN.

The final scope of the project will cover 68,000 fewer acres than what ConocoPhillips was initially seeking, the sources said.


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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2023, 07:53:17 PM »

Presidentially? I doubt they can since there is no RCV and a liberal anti-gun anti-oil Dem candidate would have to beat the Republican outright. On the other levels they could win it sooner.
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2023, 11:07:31 PM »

They should probably contest it in 2024 TBH.  There's a lot of opportunity to up turnout and it's voting dramatically left of 2020 in the congressional elections.  There are a couple of 270 R/268 D electoral college maps that are highly plausible for 2024, so it could actually save them, not to mention the senate seat in 2026.



I’d agree that they should contest it as well. Where have the biggest shifts been? If Mat-Su had the kind of shifts that the contiguous 48 had, AK would already be blue, I think. Granted, it’s AK, so it will always befuddle us down here.
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FloridaMan1845
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2023, 04:43:14 PM »

2036.
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Spectator
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« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2023, 06:14:52 AM »

There is a shot it could by the time the next Democrat President is elected, with a Republican one in between Biden and that one.

Democrats would be smart to start laying the groundwork seriously for it though, especially since they will probably need a Senate seat or two out of there within the next decade if they want a Senate majority.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2023, 08:46:37 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2023, 08:52:36 PM by Interlocutor »

2032 seems reasonable to me. I feel it'll certainly get close sometime in the 2030s.

Honestly, I don't see the harm of sending a couple bucks towards Anchorage's way and laying some party infrastructure down. This isn't Texas we're talking about and the argument could be made that an effort to flip Alaska is more promising & rewarding than an effort to flip Texas.

You just can't expect these states to fall into their lap and a little push could be all it takes.
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