Danish General Election: 1 November 2022

[Jens]

No, she won't...
She announced her retirement from office in order to enable the formation of a government that will enjoy broad support, thereby overcoming the left-right division of society.

Well, she'll most likely (I'll give her 80-90%) be the next PM, but not with the current one-party government.

What? According to German media, she intends to leave office. I've checked several sources.

Depends on what you mean with 'leave office'. She'll step back from the current government to have another made - most likely still with her as PM. But of course we can't know exactly what's going to happen. The only slightly possible alternative - given the seat distribution of the election - would be a coalition across the center headed by Løkke, but I can't see why Frederiksen would accept that.

Sounds like the German media doesn't understand the Danish system. Frederiksen hasn't left office. The government has resigned and now they are negotiating. But as Rosin writes, she will most likely stay as PM, but not in the current constellation

[Mike88]

What kind of broad coalition would be on the table? Social Democrats+Moderates+Social Liberals are at 73 seats. Adding the Liberal Alliance, not sure if they are willing or even possible, the number rises to 87, adding the Conservatives, 97.

[crals]

Social Democrats+Liberals+Moderates(+3 seats from the Faroes/Greenland) have a majority and makes sense on paper. But there isn't much reason for the Liberals (or anyone else on the Blue side) to agree since they can't be blamed for preventing a government when there's a Red majority.

Is Løkke desperate enough to give up on the broad government when it's his party's reason to exist?

[JimJamUK]

What kind of broad coalition would be on the table? Social Democrats+Moderates+Social Liberals are at 73 seats. Adding the Liberal Alliance, not sure if they are willing or even possible, the number rises to 87, adding the Conservatives, 97.

Absolutely not. A right wing libertarian party is completely at odds with the Social Democrats politics. Their last time in a right wing government was disastrous enough, supporting the Social Democrats would see them fall below the threshold. And anyways, LA had a great election and will be hoping to cement their position as a credible right wing party opposed to the Social Democratic led government.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Sounds like the German media doesn't understand the Danish system. Frederiksen hasn't left office. The government has resigned and now they are negotiating. But as Rosin writes, she will most likely stay as PM, but not in the current constellation

Either, they really didn't understand what she means by "resignation", or they communicated it very badly.
This morning, it sounded as though Frederiksen intended to step down in order for her party to find a more popular nominee for the office of the Prime Minister.
Because it sounded very irritating to me, as her Social Democrats received the best result since more than 20 years, I checked several news sources. All wrote the same.
Now, suddenly, the German media seem to have put their statements into perspective, speaking a "formal" offer of resignation.

[VPH]

What kind of broad coalition would be on the table? Social Democrats+Moderates+Social Liberals are at 73 seats. Adding the Liberal Alliance, not sure if they are willing or even possible, the number rises to 87, adding the Conservatives, 97.

Absolutely not. A right wing libertarian party is completely at odds with the Social Democrats politics. Their last time in a right wing government was disastrous enough, supporting the Social Democrats would see them fall below the threshold. And anyways, LA had a great election and will be hoping to cement their position as a credible right wing party opposed to the Social Democratic led government.

I'm not too knowledgeable on Danish politics but could the more center-right and greenish Conservative People's Party join?

[Logical]

Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen is resigning.

[CumbrianLefty]

Did think it a bit odd that MF was "stepping down" after what was objectively a pretty good result.

So was this an election where pollsters actually overestimated the right?

You would think that was never possible if you believed some people.

[Diouf]

Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen is resigning.

The personal vote are being counted today, and the returns have been quite poor for her. To the degree that it's still not sure whether she will actually win the party's seat in Copenhagen Environs.
That's her explanation for resigning: "The personal votes clearly show that voters do not have trust in me. The voters want something else, and I have a big respect for that. Therefore I can't continue as political leader".

In the Social Liberals the leader is elected by the parliamentary group. The deputy leader Martin Lidegaard, who is known to be more centrist in terms of policy, might be the obvious leader. But he was defeated handily 12-4 in the parliamentary group vote by Carsten Nielsen back in october 2020.
So perhaps it's a question of whether the parliamentary group wants another election, or they fall back behind Lidegaard.

Of the seven MPs in the new group, we know five of them. Lidegaard has his own vote, and Lotte Rod, who supported him in 2020, is elected as well. Zenia Stampe, who is furthest left on immigration, is elected, and would oppose a centrist turn in that area. Katrine Robsøe, who defeated parliamentary group leader Andreas Steenberg, to win a seat in Eastern Jutland supported Carsten Nielsen in 2020. And then former Minister for Development Cooperation Christian Friis Bach is back in parliament, but I'm less sure where he's placed. In Copenhagen, I would be surprised if Samira Nawa, another prominent member of the leftist wing, does not win the party's seat. And then question is whether Carsten Nielsen can keep her own seat or not.

[Diouf]

Did think it a bit odd that MF was "stepping down" after what was objectively a pretty good result.

So was this an election where pollsters actually overestimated the right?

You would think that was never possible if you believed some people.

The government had still lost its majority as the Social Liberals didn't want a one-party government.

The last unweighted average was Red 85, Blue 75, Moderate 15, and if the final part of the recount doesn't change anything, the result is Red 87, Blue 72, Moderate 16. Mostly driven by a Social Democrat overperformance of 4 seats of course.

[Diouf]

It seems like Mette Frederiksen can now avoid an independent lawyer review about whether there's basis for an impeachment case regarding the Mink Scandal. The Alternative had until now supported such a review, and as recently as this Sunday, their MP Torsten Gejl confirmed this in a tweet. But today, party leader Franciska Rosenkilde says that the party doesn't support such a review any longer: "We have always been in support of an independent lawyer review, but the Social Liberals didn't support that and wanted an election instead. There have now been an election, and the Danes gave Mette Frederiksen the support to continue, so what we will look for now is solutions for the future".

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/alternativ-kovending-gigantisk-loeftebrud/9496563?ilc=c

[Diouf]

Ekstra Bladet reports Mette Frederiksen will start government negotiations on Friday in the official prime ministerial residence at Marienborg.

[Diouf]

Sofie Carsten Nielsen does keep her seat in parliament. She received 2567 personal votes, while the party's spokesperson on science, health and psychiatry Stinus Lindgreen received 2221 votes. So a 246 vote margin. Very unimpressive for a leader in relation to a relatively unknown MP.

[Diouf]

Already on election night, the very influential MEP, now MP, Søren Gade opened up for the Liberals joining a government across the centre "if the price was right". It was even said before the Red Bloc majority emerged.
Now, Gade's statement was backed up by other MPs Preben Bang Henriksen and Anni Matthiesen. And Jakob Ellemann himself has opened up a bit to the idea. "We have an agreement on the challenges we face. We see the solutions in different ways. I would like to lean into this. I've entered politics to make a difference. The seats we received should get its highest possible weight." When asked directly whether he could join a government with Mette Frederiksen, he said "The clear starting point is that I'm not gonna make Mette Frederiksen PM".

[Diouf]

IA MP Aaja Chemnitz has said Lars Løkke called her on election night to hear whether she could consider supporting a Blue government with support from the Blue Bloc, which she rejected. So something Løkke has rejected as an option in public, but maybe apparently considering anyway.
Chemnitz says she supports Frederiksen forming a broad government.

[mileslunn]

If seat count holds, couldn't it be an issue by issue as gives Frederiksen more flexibility so on some issues turn to parties on left, others parties in centre or even centre-right.  It seems formal coalition gives less flexibility, although does offer stability however.

[YL]

Social Liberal leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen is resigning.

Forcing an election in which your party then lose more than half their seats is rarely a good career move.

[JimJamUK]

Forcing an election in which your party then lose more than half their seats is rarely a good career move.

Not helped by her forcing the election due to unhappiness with Mette Frederiksen’s leadership then immediately endorsing Frederiksen as prime minister candidate, as well as arguing for ultra social liberal policies while calling for right wing parties to enter government. Very much a case of ‘what did you think would happen?’.

[Diouf]

Martin Lidegaard is the new Social Liberal leader, and Samira Nawa is the new deputy leader. There was no election in the group, and it seems like a compromise between the two wings, which get a representative each in the leadership.

At the press conference, the MPs mentioned their demands to a new centrist government. Higher ambitions on climate and nature, investments into children and education. Defending the cultural sector. Removing the thistles in the immigration policies. Ensuring a solid economy with an expanded labour supply.

Martin Lidegaard is less in favour of the many demands and threats, the party has used in the past years. So a lot of questions were of course about this, and whether an end to the Rwanda plan was still a demand. He was fairly conclusive about this, but doesn't talk so directly, so when the question was asked for the fifth time, Nawa stepped in and simply said yes.

He was asked whether the party would form a centrist alliance with the Moderates to ensure a centrist government with the two parties, but Lidegaard said since he had just become leader, he hadn't had the chance to talk to the other party leaders yet.

https://twitter.com/cathrinebloch/status/1588223160012488704

Negotiations start tomorrow at 08.00. Mette Frederiksen will meet with all parties, in order after their size. Statistics Denmark will not publish the official distribution of seats until 12.00 tomorrow, but there hasn't been any indication that the seat distribution will change.

[Diouf]

It seems like Mette Frederiksen can now avoid an independent lawyer review about whether there's basis for an impeachment case regarding the Mink Scandal. The Alternative had until now supported such a review, and as recently as this Sunday, their MP Torsten Gejl confirmed this in a tweet. But today, party leader Franciska Rosenkilde says that the party doesn't support such a review any longer: "We have always been in support of an independent lawyer review, but the Social Liberals didn't support that and wanted an election instead. There have now been an election, and the Danes gave Mette Frederiksen the support to continue, so what we will look for now is solutions for the future".

https://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politik/danskpolitik/alternativ-kovending-gigantisk-loeftebrud/9496563?ilc=c

The Alternative made a 180 on their 180. Now they again support an independent lawyer review. Party leader Franciska Rosenkilde says: "The day after the election I was met by a journalist from Jyllands-Posten. He asked whether we still supported an independent lawyer review. And honestly, I answered too quickly. Personally I've moved on from mink and and lawyer reviews, but due to too little sleep after a long campaign, I answered too quickly. My mistake. Now we've met in the new parliamentary group, and the other five MPs do not back my position on this. I of course listen to them. So the official Alternative position is, as before the election, that we support an independent lawyer review".

So they are now again for such a investigation, but it doesn't exactly sound like something she will push hard for in potential government negotiations. The Moderates also seem to backed somewhat on the question of a review. In the campaign, Løkke demanded such a review, but now it's more of a starting point and something they would like to have. So it still seems like there's a good chance we won't get such a review.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2022-11-04-alternativet-i-dobbelt-kovending-stoetter-alligevel-advokatvurdering-af-minksagen

[Diouf]

The first goverment negotiations took place Friday.
Most of the Blue parties are of course quite hard to see in any new majority, but only the Denmark Democrats won't participate in further negotiations. The other parties will meet with Frederiksen again on Monday. But it doesn't look very likely that New Right, DPP, Liberal Alliance and probably Conservatives will play any significant role.

So most of the attention is about the potential majorities, and how the Social Liberals, the Moderates and IA will act in these negotiations. Particularly the question of whether the parties will bundle their seats together. This will ensure that no government can be formed without them. Because if they act alone, the Social Liberals could be shut out of a Social Democrat - Liberal - Moderate majority, while the Moderates could be shut out of a pure Red Bloc majority (if IA backs this). Together, they would be basically impossible to get around. But of course, the question is whether there is the necessary mutual trust and whether they want to prioritize the same things.

Both Moderates and Social Liberals will want economic reforms to secure a bigger labour supply and control inflation. Climate and nature will be a big demand from the Social Liberals, which doesn't seem to interest Løkke that much, but with the electorate he has now, it shouldn't be a major problem for him to go along with most of them. Løkke has a lot of interest in reforming health policy, which I don't think Social Liberals would have much trouble with going along with. As always, the thorny question for the Social Liberals is immigration, and now particularly the Rwanda plan. The party continues to insist that it's an ultimatum that this plan is scrapped, even though the new leader Martin Lidegaard obviously doesn't like that they've ended in that position. Løkke won't make it an ultimatum, but probably correctly figures that in the end judges, international organiations etc. will find some way to block it. So this is a decisive point. Can some agreement be made where the Social Democrats in some way gets to keep the Rwanda plan alive, while the Social Liberals get to show they've stopped it? Maybe there can be made some compromise, where the government has to work on expanding the model with more European countries or even the EU, so the process is slowed down and the project becomes unmanageble (but still ongoing). And then both parties will insist on easing immigration rules, so it's much easier for refugees who work or study to stay in the country, even if their asylum expires etc.

Lars Løkke already seems to be doing a fair bit to create such a situation. He met with IA MP Aaja Chemnitz again Friday, and will certainly be happy to include a lot of Greenlandic demands in government negotiations. Løkke has also stated that it would be wise for parties to talk together outside of the official proces, which Mette Frederiksen will get to own. He mentions talking with Liberal Alliance, Liberals and Social Liberals about economic reforms. He says the parties shouldn't then go into the government negotiations together, but it would be wise to coordinate demands.
Martin Lidegaard seemed fairly open to that request: "We will have contact with all parties. But we're having a real negotiating proces here (with Frederiksen). We won't run a parallel process somewhere else. But we're curious about what other parties have to say, and would like to facilitate that process. So we will have a dialogue with other parties. Not as a competition to this process, but as an attempt to end out with a really, broad government".

DR has an article with reactions from all the parties after the government negotiations on Friday: https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/folketingsvalg/danmarksdemokraterne-er-ude-og-chemnitz-drikker-kaffe-med-loekke

[Diouf]

The share of women MP will be the highest ever with 44%, which means 79 of the 179 MPs.

The top of 15 personal vote totals are:

1. Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats, Northern Jutland. 60 837
2. Inger Støjberg, Denmark Democrats, Northern Jutland. 47 211
3. Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Moderates, Zealand. 38 439
4. Alex Vanopslagh, Liberal Alliance, Eastern Jutland. 38 284
5. Jacob Mark, SPP, Zealand. 31 235
6. Magnus Heunicke, Social Democrats, Zealand. 22 102
7. Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, Liberals, Eastern Jutland. 20 945
8. Pia Olsen Dyhr, SPP, Copenhagen. 18 758
9. Nicolai Wammen, Social Democrats, Eastern Jutland. 18 022
10. Søren Gade, Liberals, Western Jutland. 17 998
11. Søren Pape Poulsen, Conservatives, Western Jutland. 15 767
12. Franciska Rosenkilde, Alternative, Copenhagen. 15 699
13. Pernille Vermund, New Right, Southern Jutland. 15 375
14. Pelle Dragsted, Red-Green Alliance, Copenhagen. 14 129
15. Mattias Tesfaye, Social Democrats, Copenhagen Environs. 13 948

The much media talk of the Frederiksen - Støjberg battle in Northern Jutland have probably boosted the personal vote count of them both further. And particularly for Støjberg, there wasn't much competition from other names inside her own party. Other than that, the expected strong results for Løkke and Vanopslagh, the popular leaders of booming parties. The most popular of all minister, Minister of Health Magnus Heunicke, also very high, and SPP boy wonder Jacob Mark still very high despite being ill for a part of this term. He is the personification of their minimum personel quotas in kindergartens, which have been SPPs main achievement.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats went a bit forward to 27.6% and gained 2 seats to reach 50, their best election result since 2001. The most prominent Minister to lose his seat was Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jeppe Kofod, who didn't win one of the seven Social Democrat seats in Zealand. He was drafted straight in as minister from the European Parliament, and hasn't been very prominent this term, but still something of a surprise to see the Foreign Minister not be elected to parliament for the second election in a row. His 2008 underage sex case certainly also continues to haunt him. Another Minister, Rasmus Prehn, just managed to keep his seat despite his expenses scandals. He won the last of their seven seats in Northern Jutland with 1 899 personal votes, 62 votes ahead of his nearest rival and the lowest personal votes of all Social Democratic MPs. 9 of their MPs are elected for the first time. The most prominent is perhaps 28-year old Frederik Vad, who lead the Social Democrat Youth from 2017-2022. Also there's a new MP from the Hækkerup family. 28-year old Fie Hækkerup won a seat in Northern Zealand, which her dad Nick Hækkerup represented until leaving government earlier this year.

Liberals crashed down to 13.3% and 23 seats, their worst result since 1988. Several of their prominent MPs already left during the term, either to other parties or leaving parliament. Of those standing again, Eva Kjer Hansen is perhaps the most prominent to lose her seat. She has been a MP since 1990 and held four different ministerial jobs. Also their well-known spokesperson on transport Kristian Pihl Lorentzen, a MP since 2007, lost his seat. The election will lead to half of their MEP group being changed, since both Søren Gade and Linea Søgaard-Lidell were elected to parliament. For the last 1.5 year of this EP term, they will be replaced by Bergur Løkke Rasmussen (yes, the son of a certain ex-Liberal politician) and Kim Valentin (who has just lost his seat as MP).

Moderates stormed into parliament with 9.3% and 16 seats. Aside from Løkke and Jakob Engel-Schmidt, none of them has previously been a MP. The most famous names, Jon Stephensen, Jeppe Søe, Henrik Frandsen, Nanna Gotfredsen and Monika Rubin were all elected. Rosa Eriksen also looks like someone who could be a prominent face of the party, after an impressive campaign and 4 469 personal votes, the third highest among their MPs. Løkke dragged two additional MPs into parliament from his Zealand constituency, and with Løkke himself getting almost all the votes, Mike Villa Fonseca got into parliament on just 505 personal votes.

[Diouf]

SPP, which I just realized now changed their official English name into Green Left at this year's conference, gained slightly to reach 8.3% and 15 seats (+1). The ex-Alternative MP Rasmus Nordqvist only finished 5th among the party's three candidates in Eastern Jutland, so didn't get one of their three seats. Instead 26-year old Sofie Lippert, leader of SPP Youth from 2019-2021, grapped one of those three seats. In Copenhagen, where 4 incumbent MPs fought for three seats, it was unfortunately Halime Oguz who lost her seat. Another new face in the group is Sigurd Agersnap, councillor since 2018 and deputy mayor since January in Lyngby-Taarbæk. As seen on the personal vote tally, Jacob Mark again got an outstanding personal vote, far more than party leader Pia Olsen Dyhr, and will certainly play a key role in the party.

Denmark Democrats burst into parliament with 8.1% and 14 seats. But despite being a new party, far more of them have parliamentary experience. Støjberg herself + 8 ex-DPP MPs enter parliament for the new party. The additional 5 are an ex-Liberal councillor, an ex-DPP councillor, two children of DPP MPs + a businesswoman. Inger Støjberg is of course gonna be the key figure, with DPP co-founder Peter Skaarup as the likely parliamentary group leader. Dennis Flydtkjær had a great personal election with 7 501 personal votes in Western Jutland, and could be the party's face on economic questions. The two MPs dragged in by Støjberg in Northern Jutland, Lise Bech and Kristian Bøgsted got in on 521 and 480 personal votes respectively. Of the many ex-DPP faces, I'm interested to see how Susie Jessen does, daughter of Søren Espersen and has previously worked as speechwriter in DPP.

Liberal Alliance had a brilliant campaign, and ended up on 7.9% and 14 seats, their best ever result. Their three existing MPs of course all got re-elected, but of the new 11 MPs, only Carsten Bach has previously been in parliament. Faroese lawyer Sólbjørg Jakobsen had a great election in Northern Jutland with 4 421 personal votes, and could very well get a significant spokesperson position in the group. She will also be a needed female face in a male-dominated party. Five of the new MPs are women, three of them on the most marginal seats. One of them is 21-year old shop assistent and leader of the Kolding LA Youth Helena Artmann Andresen.

[Diouf]

Conservatives dropped like a stone throughout the campaign, and landed on 5.5% and 10 seats (-2). This meant all those who have joined the party ended up losing their seats. Ex-Liberal MPs Marcus Knuth, Britt Bager and Gitte Willumsen + ex-Christian Democrat leader Isabella Arendt all failed to get elected. Instead, eight of their ten MPs are incumbents. The two new faces are Helle Bonnesen and Lise Bertelsen, councillors in Copenhagen and Viborg respectively. If Søren Pape is replaced as leader, there are three likely candidates, all of whom did decent enough. Mette Abildgaard performed the best with 6 376 votes in Northern Zealand, and will be the voice of the green wing of the party. Rasmus Jarlov got 5 216 personal votes in Copenhagen Environs, and is the voice of the tough on immigration wing. Finally, a potential consensus candidate, Mai Mercado, got 4 426 personal votes.

Red-Green Alliance dropped to 5.1% and 9 seats (-4). With the party using the semi-closed list system, there is little incentive to hunt personal votes for the candidates. So the Red-Green had the candidate elected with the fewest personal votes. Søren Egge Rasmussen who only won 264 personal votes in the large Southern Jutland constituency. Ex-SPP MP Trine Pertou Mach enters parliament for the party this time. Mai Villadsen is likely to be replaced as front figure during this term by Pelle Dragsted, the former violent Antifa activist who has turned into the party's most well-spoken and popular figure, whose book on Nordic Socialism has won a lot of praise.

Social Liberals, who caused this early election, went down to 3.8% and only 7 seats (-9), the worst result since 1990. Party leader Sofie Carsten Nielsen did get elected in the end, but with a horrible personal vote result of 2 467 votes, only just beating one of the party's less prominent incumbent MPs Stinus Lindgreen. Parliamentary group leader Andreas Steenberg lost his seat, and the Helveg Petersen dynasty is no longer represented after Rasmus lost his seat in Funen. Deputy leader, and now new leader Martin Lidegaard did great with 7 167 votes in Northern Zealand. Samira Nawa fairly convincingly won the party's seat in Copenhagen amid tough competition. How well, Lidegaard and Nawa's new leadership will function will be quite influential, both in the government formation and the stability of such a government. Despite the heavy loss, the most likely outcome is one with Social Liberals in a decisive role.