TML
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,443
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« on: December 13, 2022, 12:46:16 AM » |
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In 2020, it appears that major factors contributing to the relatively large margin in FL (compared to margins throughout the 2010s) included Democrats’ decision to reduce in-person campaigning as a result of the pandemic and their failure to adequately respond to misinformation about their party and their candidates (Obama did a pretty good job on the latter issue during his campaigns). Geographically speaking, aside from South Florida, another place where Democrats tanked and failed to make up ground was the suburban/exurban counties in the Orlando & Tampa areas. I think that if Democrats had adequately addressed the aforementioned issues, the end result in FL would probably have been not further right than R+2 or so. The keys to an actual Democratic victory in the state would have involved reducing Republican margins in the suburban/exurban counties in central FL to 2008-2014 levels, along with getting South FL Democratic margins back up to levels similar to Obama 2012, Crist 2014, and/or Gillum/Nelson 2018 (assuming that Clinton 2016 was an outlier).
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