Early Voting thread.

[Hollywood]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers. 

2) Comparing 2022 to 2018 is erroneous. Trends in early voting turnout and demographics have significantly changed since 2020. Democrats had a 54.7-29.9% lead in the 2021 VA Race, 47-38% lead in 2020, and a 48-42% lead in 2018.  The Republican won VA in 2021, and lost in both 2018 and 2020.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

3) Due to their campaign strategy, Democrats need to run up their numbers with huge turnout in the early vote/absentee/VBM. 

4) The real problem for Democrats is that they aren't able to retain/turnout many of their 2020 supporters, while Republicans are running up the Trump and anti-Biden (Presidential disapproval) Voters.  In VA, Biden won 54-44% in 2020, but the breakdown of these voters was 48-44% in 2021.  Also, Polls indicated that the undecided Indies/third party voters were leaning Republican.

[RI]

Was trying to see if I could gleam anything from WA, now that 1M+ votes are in. The top counties by return rates are really a mixed bag, some Biden counties, and some Trump counties. The top return rate though is Jefferson County, a Biden +41 county. It's a small one, but interesting to see they're energized.

The vote return right now is almost entirely correlated with age. Jefferson County is always a high turnout county because it's full of old, liberal retirees. Younger voters vote later.

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

I wouldn't compare to 2018. Thanks to Trump, Republicans are actively holding their ballots this time, as they did in the primary. The only comp I'm making is to the primary, and I'd still say R's are running about 4 points ahead of the primary so far without factoring in what I's are doing.

[Duke of York]

Not sure if it's prudent, but day 4 of early voting in NYC is done, so I wanted to see how it compared to 2020's first 4 days of EV

after 4 days in 2022 / after 4 days in 2020 / 2022 share of 2020

Manhattan - 55,799/100,533 (55.5%)
Bronx - 16,089/66,393 (24.2%)
Brooklyn - 49,045/149,368 (32.8%)
Queens - 35,246/95,899 (36.8%)
Staten Island - 15,598/45,542 (34.2%)

Manhattan truly blowing it out of the water, so clearly the white liberals in NYC are energized. Turnout looking similar among Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, where they've amassed around 1/3 of the 2020 EV so far. Bronx is the only one off,

Overall, early vote turnout through 4 days is 38% of 2020 EV. Obviously not a great comparison since it's also a prez year, but thought it was still interesting.

Given Staten Island is one place where you'd expect a ~Zeldin surge~, it doesn't seem to be appearing just yet, at least in EV.

If these numbers hold Hochul may have NYC to thank for getting a full term.

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers. 

2) Comparing 2022 to 2018 is erroneous. Trends in early voting turnout and demographics have significantly changed since 2020. Democrats had a 54.7-29.9% lead in the 2021 VA Race, 47-38% lead in 2020, and a 48-42% lead in 2018.  The Republican won VA in 2021, and lost in both 2018 and 2020.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

3) Due to their campaign strategy, Democrats need to run up their numbers with huge turnout in the early vote/absentee/VBM. 

4) The real problem for Democrats is that they aren't able to retain/turnout many of their 2020 supporters, while Republicans are running up the Trump and anti-Biden (Presidential disapproval) Voters.  In VA, Biden won 54-44% in 2020, but the breakdown of these voters was 48-44% in 2021.  Also, Polls indicated that the undecided Indies/third party voters were leaning Republican.

Your first point makes an argument against using Targetsmart modeling, while your second point makes an argument BY USING Targetsmart modeling. Like, pick a lane dude.

[Unelectable Bystander]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

[It’s so Joever]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

Then why are the congressional districts with the highest turnout relative to 2020 the R districts? Your buddy Sam seems to have forgotten that voting patterns have changed since 2018, and only the exception states which were pretty much all mail even in 2018 and had a consistent Mail voting culture (that is why I am willing to accept MN Mike’s data)

[Koharu]

In Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1587838634044297217?s=20&t=TOXUk2ypZG33oFt...
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1587838643279912961?s=20&t=TOXUk2ypZG33oFt...

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

What in the world are you saying?

No one is disputing that EDay will be GOP Day.

In the post I just cited, GOP turnout ultimately will exceed that of Ds.

There is just no indication that the final turnout numbers will be some 250-300k GOP turnout advantage when this is all said and done.

What is misleading when I am literally just presenting a D analyst’s current turnout projections based off the current rate of returns…

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

SNIPPY-SNIP

No real surprises there, right?

[It’s so Joever]

In Wisconsin:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1587838634044297217?s=20&t=TOXUk2ypZG33oFt...
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1587838643279912961?s=20&t=TOXUk2ypZG33oFt...

My geographical analysis also confirms this data, WI consistently has been a rare bright sport for Dems in early voting this year.

[Senator Incitatus]

Republicans have taken the lead in Miami-Dade: https://www.wuft.org/news/2022/11/02/florida-gop-takes-lead-in-early-voting-in-traditionally-blue-miami-dade/

[wbrocks67]

Was trying to see if I could gleam anything from WA, now that 1M+ votes are in. The top counties by return rates are really a mixed bag, some Biden counties, and some Trump counties. The top return rate though is Jefferson County, a Biden +41 county. It's a small one, but interesting to see they're energized.

The vote return right now is almost entirely correlated with age. Jefferson County is always a high turnout county because it's full of old, liberal retirees. Younger voters vote later.

I'm not seeing anything in my numbers so far from WA to suggest R's majorly overperform the primary results.

Is what you're seeing similar to what TargetEarly is suggesting?

Right now, this is what they estimate for WA, 7 days out:

2018 - 828K - D 54, R 36
2022 - 869K - D 58, R 30

I would find it hard to believe that Ds are actually doing better than 2018 at this same time. Unless you're data is showing similar to what the primary this year showed?

I wouldn't compare to 2018. Thanks to Trump, Republicans are actively holding their ballots this time, as they did in the primary. The only comp I'm making is to the primary, and I'd still say R's are running about 4 points ahead of the primary so far without factoring in what I's are doing.

If Indies are about the same, that would point to a Murray +9/10 win then statewide? Is that what you're expecting at this point?

[Unelectable Bystander]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

What in the world are you saying?

No one is disputing that EDay will be GOP Day.

In the post I just cited, GOP turnout ultimately will exceed that of Ds.

There is just no indication that the final turnout numbers will be some 250-300k GOP turnout advantage when this is all said and done.

What is misleading when I am literally just presenting a D analyst’s current turnout projections based off the current rate of returns…

I’m saying your comparison to 2018 makes no sense. Those numbers show that there was not much difference between early and E day votes in 2018. In 2020, it was huge. In the 2022 primaries, it got even bigger.

For the 2018 comparison to be relevant, Kelly and Masters would need to roughly tie the Election Day vote because that’s what happened between McSally and Sinema.

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

Then why are the congressional districts with the highest turnout relative to 2020 the R districts? Your buddy Sam seems to have forgotten that voting patterns have changed since 2018, and only the exception states which were pretty much all mail even in 2018 and had a consistent Mail voting culture (that is why I am willing to accept MN Mike’s data)

Can you unpack this? I am not sure that I am following what you’re saying.

The CDs in AZ with the highest turnout are the oldest and most educated, AZ01 - a swing district that went for Biden, and AZ08, home to Sun City, a retirement community that gets like 95% turnout, lol. No surprises there and not really indicative of much?

And yes, voting patterns have changed, though not hugely in a state like AZ. I am not disputing that. I’m not saying that because GOP is under running 2018 by 100k votes right now that these 100k voters won’t turn out on EDay.

[wbrocks67]

More GOPers will go out on Election Day in AZ than usual, that's for certain. But you would still rather be the party that has turnout 6-7% higher than the other going into ED. Always better to have votes banked.

[xavier110]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

What in the world are you saying?

No one is disputing that EDay will be GOP Day.

In the post I just cited, GOP turnout ultimately will exceed that of Ds.

There is just no indication that the final turnout numbers will be some 250-300k GOP turnout advantage when this is all said and done.

What is misleading when I am literally just presenting a D analyst’s current turnout projections based off the current rate of returns…

I’m saying your comparison to 2018 makes no sense. Those numbers show that there was not much difference between early and E day votes in 2018. In 2020, it was huge. In the 2022 primaries, it got even bigger.

For the 2018 comparison to be relevant, Kelly and Masters would need to roughly tie the Election Day vote because that’s what happened between McSally and Sinema.

I think we agree more than disagree here: I agree that EDay vote will skew much more GOP than 18, but add that the banked early vote will be much more D than 18. The first drop at 8pm on Tuesday will be some huge Kelly/Hobbs/D numbers.

A +25k D early vote equals big D margins on EDay night. Sinema won by 2.5 in a +160k R pool of votes is my point.

Either way, to my original point, the current rate of returns does not suggest a D underperformance, unlike what Hollywood says, which is what prompted all of this. An R overperformance cannot be gleaned by the early vote either, when you can assume that the final R early vote numbers will total 80-85 percent of GOP vote.

[It’s so Joever]

Ralston has updated, the urban D firewall has reduced slightly to 23,000 while the Ra currently have about 17 k banked in rural votes.

[Unelectable Bystander]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA
Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

You keep making a point that is blatantly wrong and misleading others. Once again:

2018:
McSally received 9.2% of her votes on Election Day, compared to 7.8% for Sinema
Doucey 8.7% to 8.0%

2020:
Trump received 14.6% of his votes on Election Day, compared to 7.0% of Biden’s votes
McSally 14.4% to Kelly’s 7.3%

2022:
Republicans in the primary received 20.1% of their vote on election day, compared to 7.2% for Kelly

Governor’s races were the same split

The democrat share has remained constant since 2018, the Republican share has only increased. You can believe whatever you want, but I will go on the record saying I am certain that republicans will over-perform if these patterns hold.

What in the world are you saying?

No one is disputing that EDay will be GOP Day.

In the post I just cited, GOP turnout ultimately will exceed that of Ds.

There is just no indication that the final turnout numbers will be some 250-300k GOP turnout advantage when this is all said and done.

What is misleading when I am literally just presenting a D analyst’s current turnout projections based off the current rate of returns…

I’m saying your comparison to 2018 makes no sense. Those numbers show that there was not much difference between early and E day votes in 2018. In 2020, it was huge. In the 2022 primaries, it got even bigger.

For the 2018 comparison to be relevant, Kelly and Masters would need to roughly tie the Election Day vote because that’s what happened between McSally and Sinema.

I think we agree more than disagree here: I agree that EDay vote will skew much more GOP than 18, but add that the banked early vote will be much more D than 18. The first drop at 8pm on Tuesday will be some huge Kelly/Hobbs/D numbers.

A +25k D early vote equals big D margins on EDay night. Sinema won by 2.5 in a +160k R pool of votes is my point.

Either way, to my original point, the current rate of returns does not suggest a D underperformance, unlike what Hollywood says, which is what prompted all of this. An R overperformance cannot be gleaned by the early vote either, when you can assume that the final R early vote numbers will total 80-85 percent of GOP vote.

I think it looks like an over-performance, but it of course depends on the extent of the Election Day turnout

[wbrocks67]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

[Dani Rose]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ralston has updated, the urban D firewall has reduced slightly to 23,000 while the Ra currently have about 17 k banked in rural votes.

No mail from Clark County yet today, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a subsequent update.

[Hollywood]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

Again... I'm ignoring the early vote turnout and margins from 2018.  Democrats and Republicans have changed their voting habits.  The Democrat strategy is to run-up and lock-in early votes.  It's a data point that polls captured in 2021.  Democrats had huge early-vote margins in VA, but Republicans overtook them within the final week of early voting and on election day.  I tossed out the 2018 model long ago.  

Also, it's important to note that we are not getting numbers from Republican counties of Arizona, because they aren't immediately counting early votes. Aside from Maricopa and Pima counties providing daily reports, other counties are only giving us numbers on a weekly basis.  Yet, Democrat only a 35,000 vote lead.  So yes.  I think Republicans are over-performing.  According to a few polls, Republicans will have a 3-2 Margin among the remaining 'certain' or 'likely' voters.  

[It’s so Joever]

1) Target Early is merely guessing the partisanship of Washington early and absentee voters. The only real voter data I've viewed from FL, AZ, NV, etc. indicates that Republicans are over-performing and Democrats are missing their numbers.  

Again, NO. I don’t know how you can look at the AZ vote and say with a straight face that Rs are over performing and Ds are missing their numbers when R turnout has cratered and Ds are meeting 2018 turnout

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1587587919187161089?cxt=HHwWgsDRzaKzn4gsAAAA

Sam is an analyst who plays with these numbers all day. He suggests that we are on track for 62-63% turnout, very high for a midterm, and even provides party reg estimates (1.03m GOP, 850k D, 715k I = 2.5-2.6mm voters). In 2018, about 150-160k more Rs turned out vs Ds, which would be consistent.

Little indicates that there will be a GOP romp here. Just close races a la 2018.

Again... I'm ignoring the early vote turnout and margins from 2018.  Democrats and Republicans have changed their voting habits.  The Democrat strategy is to run-up and lock-in early votes.  It's a data point that polls captured in 2021.  Democrats had huge early-vote margins in VA, but Republicans overtook them within the final week of early voting and on election day.  I tossed out the 2018 model long ago.  

Also, it's important to note that we are not getting numbers from Republican counties of Arizona, because they aren't immediately counting early votes. Aside from Maricopa and Pima counties providing daily reports, other counties are only giving us numbers on a weekly basis.  Yet, Democrat only a 35,000 vote lead.  So yes.  I think Republicans are over-performing.  According to a few polls, Republicans will have a 3-2 Margin among the remaining 'certain' or 'likely' voters.  

I buy that but do you have a source for those polls?

[wbrocks67]

Continue to like what I see in PA. We're approaching 1M mail-ins and Dem return rate is still 4% ahead of GOP (69% vs 65%)

Do you think there'll be a substantial portion of Democrats who vote on Election Day itself? That's one thing I've been trying to factor in, with the public basically thinking COVID is over.

Yeah, the Monmouth poll broke this down - something like the early vote was Fetterman 68/25 but the E-day vote was Oz 54/41. So Oz will definitely win the e-day vote, but 40% is still pretty substantial vote for Dems on Election Day. I think the VBM # overall was only 25% of the electorate, so most PA'ians are going to vote on Election Day still.