UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak surely has to call a May poll on the back of the biggest Labour to Tory swing since Hartlepool?

[Silent Hunter]

In other news from Havering:

Council budget passed after applying for a loan from central government

One of the few remaining nightclubs in Romford, once very much known for that, closed last month.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bridgen appeared to call for vaccine researchers to be put to death in the Commons this afternoon.

He’s definitely getting worse - you’d hope there was someone who could intervene, before he does or says something that causes legitimate harm to himself or others.

I suppose you've seen the interview his wife just made where she talks about how she and her son are now homeless after she tried to confront her husband about not seeing his son in hospital because he was too busy attending an anti-vax conference?

[CumbrianLefty]

She talks quite seriously about how he was "radicalised" online.

He's arguably not the only MP who has gone down that road either.

[afleitch]

She talks quite seriously about how he was "radicalised" online.

He's arguably not the only MP who has gone down that road either.

The threat has always been 'inside the House' so to speak.

[Torrain]

I suppose you've seen the interview his wife just made where she talks about how she and her son are now homeless after she tried to confront her husband about not seeing his son in hospital because he was too busy attending an anti-vax conference?

Aye, I was sent it yesterday. I considered adding a line to my previous post, but couldn't find a tone that felt right that afternoon. The very idea of forcing out your wife and child over a violent fantasy, it's just so bleak.

[CumbrianLefty]

New poll from Ipsos-MORI has the Tories at just 20%, 27 points behind.

Mystifyingly, this has started off another chorus of "it HAS to be in May!" online.

PM's don't voluntarily call elections when this far behind in the polls, period. Arguments from pundits of "but it will only get worse the longer you wait" don't resonate when their own job is on the line.

[Coldstream]

New poll from Ipsos-MORI has the Tories at just 20%, 27 points behind.

Mystifyingly, this has started off another chorus of "it HAS to be in May!" online.

PM's don't voluntarily call elections when this far behind in the polls, period. Arguments from pundits of "but it will only get worse the longer you wait" don't resonate when their own job is on the line.

Agreed totally, also if you’re Sunak does it matter if you lose by 7 pts, 17pts, 27 pts or even 37 pts really? He’s done no matter what happens, so he may as well hang on on the off chance something goes wrong for Labour or at the very least just to be in power longer.

[CumbrianLefty]

And that didn't really have the feel of an imminent pre-election Budget.

Though who genuinely knows at this point.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

He said Britain would raise 2.7 billion pounds ($3.4 billion) a year by changing the [non domicile tax] policy, which was first created in 1799 to shelter those with foreign property when Britain had an empire.

Incredible. And people say tax policy is boring!

The Conservative government had previously defended the status, arguing it wanted to attract the wealthy to live and spend their money. But critics questioned why the richest should get tax breaks, saying it highlighted the unfairness in society.

Tory moment

[CumbrianLefty]

Judging by how much of the media have behaved this morning, an uninformed observer could easily be forgiven for assuming that we already had a Labour government.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Theresa May has announced that she will not stand for Parliament at the next election.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-mp-constituency-election-2024-b2509217.html

[YL]

Theresa May has announced that she will not stand for Parliament at the next election.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-mp-constituency-election-2024-b2509217.html

Some Lib Dems may be interested in this news.

(Though in fact Electoral Calculus and the Election Maps UK nowcast show Labour in second in Maidenhead; indeed the former actually shows Labour pretty close to taking it.)

[YL]

Speaking of Electoral Calculus, take a look at their current forecast for Rochdale...

[MayorCarcetti]

Theresa May has announced that she will not stand for Parliament at the next election.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-mp-constituency-election-2024-b2509217.html

She stayed on an extra election after been deposed but long gone are the days of ex PM's staying in parliament long after they were in office. Easy to forget for instance that Heath was still in there until 2001 (27 years after his premiership ended). Truss tbf is keeping going for the moment at least, can't see Rishi staying on too long though

[Torrain]

May giving her local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser, the chance to break the story, rather than one of the nationals was quite nice.

It seems like there’s already briefing against her in the party - from those who think she timed it to distract from the budget, or as some sort of veiled criticism of Hunt’s performance. Tbh, I think they’re just worried people will take it as another sign of a spring election.

She has been pretty consistent about wanting to stay in the role until now - wonder if something’s changed behind the scenes, or if she’s just had a serious think about being in opposition next year.

If Maidenhead *is* vulnerable, I’d expect she’d know it before most others - she does seem to have made a habit of pretty frequent canvassing, even as the seat went from marginal to safe. I remember an interview with one of her chiefs of staff, who suggested May used Maidenhead doorsteps as a sort of focus group, which could have an oversized impact on her thinking at times.

[CumbrianLefty]

May giving her local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser, the chance to break the story, rather than one of the nationals was quite nice.

It seems like there’s already briefing against her in the party - from those who think she timed it to distract from the budget, or as some sort of veiled criticism of Hunt’s performance. Tbh, I think they’re just worried people will take it as another sign of a spring election.

She has been pretty consistent about wanting to stay in the role until now - wonder if something’s changed behind the scenes, or if she’s just had a serious think about being in opposition next year.

If Maidenhead *is* vulnerable, I’d expect she’d know it before most others - she does seem to have made a habit of pretty frequent canvassing, even as the seat went from marginal to safe. I remember an interview with one of her chiefs of staff, who suggested May used Maidenhead doorsteps as a sort of focus group, which could have an oversized impact on her thinking at times.

It has been suggested the opposite is true - she thinks a May election is unlikely, and if she is correct announcing it now gives the local party the best opportunity to pick a successor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

May giving her local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser, the chance to break the story, rather than one of the nationals was quite nice.

It seems like there’s already briefing against her in the party - from those who think she timed it to distract from the budget, or as some sort of veiled criticism of Hunt’s performance. Tbh, I think they’re just worried people will take it as another sign of a spring election.

She has been pretty consistent about wanting to stay in the role until now - wonder if something’s changed behind the scenes, or if she’s just had a serious think about being in opposition next year.

If Maidenhead *is* vulnerable, I’d expect she’d know it before most others - she does seem to have made a habit of pretty frequent canvassing, even as the seat went from marginal to safe. I remember an interview with one of her chiefs of staff, who suggested May used Maidenhead doorsteps as a sort of focus group, which could have an oversized impact on her thinking at times.

It has been suggested the opposite is true - she thinks a May election is unlikely, and if she is correct announcing it now gives the local party the best opportunity to pick a successor.

I wonder who Seb Payne will lose to this time!

[Pres Mike]

I've been reading about Rishi's plan to fly refugees to Rwanda....holy cow that is James Bond villain levels of cruel.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are more Donelan developments this morning, if this carries on its not looking too good for her.

[Blair]

I know only obsessives watch it but why do the BBC keep LK as their front person for the big Sunday show?

I heard she is going to host the election coverage and it’s just baffling- she just has a really weird ability to frame everything as terrible for labour, while giving the Conservatives a soft hand in a way that most other broadcasters don’t- I’d prefer Andrew Neil and we all know his politics!

[afleitch]

Really putting to bed the meme 🙄

https://twitter.com/WayneDavid81/status/1766850719066231043

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1766971934678352104

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Spectacular own goal by Kensington Palace. The AP official retracting a story is about as Streisand effect as it gets.

[TheTide]

In all seriousness, she's seriously ill isn't she?