UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[EastAnglianLefty]

I wonder if Bravermann, Truss, Mogg all bolted the Tories(along with MP's like them) to Reform, would Farage be able to pull a UK Version of Manning 1993 .

Reform are almost certainly overestimated in the polls at the moment (notably they do much better with men, whereas women are more likely to say Don't Know, implying that some of it is just male unwillingness to admit uncertainty) but they also have pretty much no media profile. If they replaced Tice with Farage or with a big-name Conservative defector, they'd be much more of a threat, though probably less likely to win seats than Canadian Reform was.

Braverman would be the ideal defector for them, but I think she's dramatically over-estimating her chances of ever becoming Tory leader and hence won't consider it until her value has dropped considerably.

[Cassius]

Also, the chief reason as to why Reform Canada were able to so well seats-wise in 1993 is that they had a very strong and concentrated base of support in Alberta and British Columbia, enabling them to roll up most of the seats in both provinces. There is no equivalent for Reform in the UK, so the results would be more akin to those in Ontario in 1993 (Reform and the Tories splitting the vote and Labour coming up the middle, even in traditionally rock solid Tory seats).

[Zinneke]

Is Braverman even a good media performer? She has mostly built her reputation by being a.minister and one that hasn't really been challenged in interviews, etc as far as I can see. Farage was the only one skilled and natural enough to lead such a force to breakthrough the media, and he ironically benefited from his status as an MEP to ensure his recorded speeches lambasting the grey suits in front of him were viral.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The only way reform gets numbers is if they recruit boris himself (who is very unpopular, but still has a personal fanbase that could paper up the fact that Boris'd policies often clash with the reform zealots in practice).

[Pericles]

Is Braverman even a good media performer? She has mostly built her reputation by being a.minister and one that hasn't really been challenged in interviews, etc as far as I can see. Farage was the only one skilled and natural enough to lead such a force to breakthrough the media, and he ironically benefited from his status as an MEP to ensure his recorded speeches lambasting the grey suits in front of him were viral.

Lol.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1725119474112614479
Speculation is that it's related to social events during COVID (which Laing has previously been implicated in).

In other parliamentary news, the ballot for Private Members Bills has been announced (with Liz Truss getting one of the slots). Laing was the one drawing lots for the ballots - hopefully that’s not related to the other news about her today.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course these current polls are almost certainly over-stating Reform, but maybe we shouldn't go to the other extreme and assert that come election day this "support" will drop to almost nothing.

For one thing, fielding a large number of candidates at the next GE (as seems almost certain now - it is very unlikely indeed there will be another electoral deal with the Tories as in 2019) will mean they get several PPBs and other attendant campaign publicity. This alone might be good in the current way of things for an overall share of 5% or so - which given how (unlike UKIP in its peak years) they get the large majority of their support from ex-Tories, could be damaging enough for the blue team.

[Torrain]

Michael Matheson, Scotland’s Health Secretary is giving a personal statement in Holyrood, after the revelation that he claimed £11,000 worth of mobile data charges on expenses, while on a week-long holiday to Morocco.

After a week of ducking questions, he’s admitted that his ministerial iPad was used to stream football matches, incurring the charges.

He’s thrown his children under the bus, and said they watched Celtic matches (the Health Sec’s team, mind), on the device without his knowledge. This clumsily insulates him from claims he mislead parliament, when he claimed the £11,000 was incurred performing constituency business in Holyrood last week.

Even if his new story is true, we’re apparently supposed to be ok with the fact that a ministerial device was so poorly secured that two kids could unlock it and access football streaming services on it.

[Continential]

Michael Matheson, Scotland’s Health Secretary is giving a personal statement in Holyrood, after the revelation that he claimed £11,000 worth of mobile data charges on expenses, while on a week-long holiday to Morocco.

After a week of ducking questions, he’s admitted that his ministerial iPad was used to stream football matches, incurring the charges.

He’s thrown his children under the bus, and said they watched Celtic matches (the Health Sec’s team, mind), on the device without his knowledge. This clumsily insulates him from claims he mislead parliament, when he claimed the £11,000 was incurred performing constituency business in Holyrood last week.

Even if his new story is true, we’re apparently supposed to be ok with the fact that a ministerial device was so poorly secured that two kids could unlock it and access football streaming services on it.

How is it possible to spend 11 grand on mobile data in a week?

[Torrain]

How is it possible to spend 11 grand on mobile data in a week?

Stream video on mad international roaming charges for hours at a time, on an outdated EE contract.

The Scottish government was aware it was a bad deal, and *did* switch mobile provider to get a better contract. But Matheson had been refusing to swap SIM cards to the new provider for months - which added several thousand pounds onto the eventual bill.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is all basically the political equivalent of a person on death row. You ALMOST feel bad for them.

Sunak should just call the election and get it over with, it's not going to get any better for him.

[Blair]

Reform need a name change- tbh just revert to Brexit Party!

[Torrain]

Another one - TechneUK have the Tories on 22%. Worth noting that 22% is the lowest Techne have every found for the Tories, and has only been reached on one other occasion - the direct aftermath of the mini-budget.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1725313575214813606

[WD]

Worrying!

[YL]

Yes, there is now fairly clear polling evidence for a Tory dip since the reshuffle. I remain a bit sceptical about the higher Reform figures, though.

[TheTide]

Reform are clearly being overstated, but not necessarily at the expense of the Tories. I think a lot of their supposed vote (around 10% in the latest polls) is strongly anti-Tory and is probably willing to vote Labour when it comes to the crunch of a general election, especially given that Reform likely won't be that visible (indeed the only real visibility they have is in polling forms). This has been reflected in parliamentary by-elections to a significant extent. The other possibility is that a lot of it goes to the Lib Dems (who will likely be the main magnet for anti-major party protest votes).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Reforms crap results in bolton local by elections suggest that if there is a big reform sentiment amongst the old UKIP base they aren't exactly enthused voters.

[afleitch]

The Tories are reduced to a loon core, who are probably enraged that the promised street battles didn't transpire. So they probably quite delicate this week and that's been reflected in the polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is all basically the political equivalent of a person on death row. You ALMOST feel bad for them.

Sunak should just call the election and get it over with, it's not going to get any better for him.

Very few politicians actually think like that, though. Who knows, the horse might actually talk?

[Torrain]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930
Bluster - but fascinated by the thought of Levido and Crosby unironically advising this.

Either way, a clip that fans of the Who Governs Britain/Stop the Boats snap election strategy, like Braverman and Simon Clarke will seize on, when the Lords dig their heels in - as they will. 

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Who governs Britain? Your strong and stable conservative government or the militant socialist trade unions… guardian-reading tofu-eating wokerati Supreme Court Justices?

[Blair]

As much as I think they have more hope in a bizarre random snap it doesn’t really work when you remember that Sunak and his new Foreign Sec won’t actually commit to leaving the EHCR- so it becomes an attempted issue election on what exactly?

[Cassius]

As much as I think they have more hope in a bizarre random snap it doesn’t really work when you remember that Sunak and his new Foreign Sec won’t actually commit to leaving the EHCR- so it becomes an attempted issue election on what exactly?

Going after welfare claimants if the latest tabloid trash is anything to go by. I love having the sensible pragmatists behind the wheel once again.

[CumbrianLefty]

A snap election - or even the more feasibly speculated on May 2024 GE - is, regardless of bluster, not going to happen unless the Tories can get clearly above 30% in the polls. As things currently stand, they are if anything going in the opposite direction.

[MillennialModerate]

Never say never…
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1725480359775608930
Bluster - but fascinated by the thought of Levido and Crosby unironically advising this.

Either way, a clip that fans of the Who Governs Britain/Stop the Boats snap election strategy, like Braverman and Simon Clarke will seize on, when the Lords dig their heels in - as they will. 

I’ll say Never.

Unless the migrant issue being blocked shows a sharp change in the polls - no chance Sunak is gonna call an election that most polls show being historically bad (I think they are exaggerated and Labour could win around 340-350 but nothing close to Blair)