UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[MaxQue]

Keeping the title the same for now as the Home Secretary's recent speech in the US has the rumour mill turning again.

The Tory Left wants her gone and are anonymously briefing the Times against her. She'll stay.

She's clearly positioning herself ready for the 2024 leadership election whilst outflanking Kemi Badenoch, whose brief only allows her to rile the base on "woke" issues instead of good old-fashioned immigration.

Perhaps further discussion of this situation would be more suited the Wretched Hive thread.

Smart people on the Tory Left should try to make sure she is not eligible for Leader by voting in a fitting way next election...

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't think even Braverman could lose Fareham & Waterlooville.

[Torrain]

She's clearly positioning herself ready for the 2024 leadership election whilst outflanking Kemi Badenoch, whose brief only allows her to rile the base on "woke" issues instead of good old-fashioned immigration.

I do think the leadership election could devolve into a fight over whether to progress Braverman into the final two - if there's enough moderates left to bloc-vote for an alternative.

If she gets there, she's got a fair chance she can be LOTO (assuming her personal baggage doesn't become a national story) - if the past few members ballots are anything to go by. But I think the Truss parallels (poor public speakers with strong credentials amongst the cultural right, who's likely to alienate swing voters) will be too much for a core contingent of MPs.

Making Braverman leader is also probably the fast-track to the reestablishment of a distinct Scottish Unionist Party, because there is no chance the Scottish Tories can sell her to voters north of the border. Especially if Labour start to soak up the unionist vote in 2024, and the Scottish Conservatives have a rough night.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think even Braverman could lose Fareham & Waterlooville.

In a normal contest she shouldn't,  but these aren't normal times. If her constituents disapprove of her actions in leadership enough (we'll never truly know) around election time, things could start happening. Elections with large swings in voter behavior tend to see the Lib-Dems claim a scalp they really shouldn't be flipping,  all thanks to voter discontent.  But this won't be apparent until a GE, if it can happen.

[Blair]

She has helped Priti Patel appear as a competent and normal politician.

[TheTide]

Aye. The comparison for Braverman I can’t shake is John Redwood circa 1997 - ie, figurehead for the right when they have power, but ignored in favour of new blood (typically with a better sense of humour, Widdecombe excluded)  once they’re in opposition.

I wonder what the likes of Gove and Hunt (if they keep their seats) will do in opposition. Will they try the Kenneth Clarke route and have multiple attempts at the leadership, or will they do what various New Labour cabinet ministers did after 2010 and quietly hang around until the next general election?

[Coldstream]

I don't think she would advance to the final two to be honest. Not because of any conspiracy to keep her off the ballot but simply because she isn't liked the MPs and the populist right can easily find a more likable*, normal* candidate like Badenoch, Patel, Kruger etc.

* These adjectives being strictly relative of course

Kruger is genuinely insane. He’s probably the only one I’d rather face than Braverman.

He’s basically a Tea Party republican, and there is no constituency for that in the UK - I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lib Dem’s knock him off in the next GE.

[CumbrianLefty]

Back in 2005, he had to step down as Tory candidate for Sedgefield after letting the cat out of the bag regarding some of his more "unorthodox" views.

[YL]

It's a YouGov subsample and so comes with lots of health warnings, but still LOL:

https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1707375642856010080

Full Tory shares from the poll by age subsample:
65+ 46%
50-64 27%
25-49 12%
18-24 1%

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Back in 2005, he had to step down as Tory candidate for Sedgefield after letting the cat out of the bag regarding some of his more "unorthodox" views.

I was curious and looked it up -- advocating creative destruction for government seems extremely tame from an American perspective. Fascinating that he had to stand down for that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's a YouGov subsample and so comes with lots of health warnings, but still LOL:

https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1707375642856010080

Full Tory shares from the poll by age subsample:
65+ 46%
50-64 27%
25-49 12%
18-24 1%

*Spit take*

[TheTide]

It's a YouGov subsample and so comes with lots of health warnings, but still LOL:

https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1707375642856010080

Full Tory shares from the poll by age subsample:
65+ 46%
50-64 27%
25-49 12%
18-24 1%

Inevitably, many people on Twitter/X are taking it seriously, despite there being almost simultaneously a 'proper' poll of this age group showing the Tories on a much more believable 15%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Most are doing it for a laugh tbf.

And 15% is a) quite high for the Tories in that age group and b) still third behind the LibDems.

(though conversely, their Green score seems a bit low)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What kind of 18-24 person would vote Conservative, anyway? As things currently stand?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One whose parents are rich.

[JimJamUK]

What kind of 18-24 person would vote Conservative, anyway? As things currently stand?

A genuinely right wing/cultural wars obsessed person who nonetheless doesn’t view Reform etc as a serious option. Actual posh people (as opposed to simply middle class) who views the Labour Party as for ‘other’ people. Basically the sort of demographics who vote Tory in other age groups but at a much lower rate.

[Blair]

I’ve been reading the reaction re labours private school policy.

Is there another policy where people seem to be about 25 years out of date on it?

 E.g people claiming it’s an attack on the middle class when the middle class cannot afford school fees, or state schools will be swamped (they’re mostly facing the opposite problem due to declining birth rates)

[Torrain]

What kind of 18-24 person would vote Conservative, anyway? As things currently stand?

I knew quite a few at uni. Most were motivated by opposition to either Corbyn or the SNP and independence. But there were a few true believers too. I know there are some on this board with some pretty skeptical views of her - but Ruth Davidson was a genuine draw at the time.

Most have left to become disillusioned independents. A couple are Lib Dem councillors. Only around three are still in the tent. They each have either banking careers, or jobs at Conservative-affiliated think tanks.

[afleitch]

What kind of 18-24 person would vote Conservative, anyway? As things currently stand?

I knew quite a few at uni. Most were motivated opposition to either Corbyn or the SNP and independence. But there were a few true believers too. I know there are some on this board with some pretty skeptical views of her - but Ruth Davidson was a genuine draw at the time.

Most have left to become disillusioned independents. A couple are Lib Dem councillors. Only around three are still in the tent. They each have either banking careers, or jobs at Conservative-affiliated think tanks.

Most Tories I knew during my membership days now...aren't.

Which is pretty much in line with the now well established pattern of younger voters becoming less Tory as they age and pass key life stages.

[Conservatopia]

What kind of 18-24 person would vote Conservative, anyway? As things currently stand?

Yeah crazy, I wonder who...

[Coldstream]

I was still in school in the 2015 election and a good number of people I knew voted Tory, but of them & the ones I knew at Uni I can’t think of any who are still Tories that don’t have careers somehow connected to the party.

[Blair]

I’ve been reading the reaction re labours private school policy.

Is there another policy where people seem to be about 25 years out of date on it?

 E.g people claiming it’s an attack on the middle class when the middle class cannot afford school fees, or state schools will be swamped (they’re mostly facing the opposite problem due to declining birth rates)

Oh no I just read the Seb Pain article…

[Torrain]

Oh no I just read the Seb Pain article…

Payne is such a poor messenger for the ‘aspiration’ argument about private schooling.

He and Bridget Phillipson both grew up in single-parent households in Gateshead. Payne’s mother sent him to private school, which got him into Durham, and the weird pre-selection limbo he’s in now. Phillipson, in contrast, battled through the local comprehensive, got to Oxford, and will probably enter government as a prominent member of the cabinet in the next 12 months. Of the two, he’s not the aspirational example I’d pick. 

Also, lol that the man demanding a return to national service would end the article with this attack on Labour: “What we are seeing is a prime example of pure ideology versus reality: gesture politics that may have limited wider benefit, but wins virtue from the party’s core supporters.”

[TheTide]

I was still in school in the 2015 election and a good number of people I knew voted Tory, but of them & the ones I knew at Uni I can’t think of any who are still Tories that don’t have careers somehow connected to the party.

I have a similar experience (uni rather than school) and some are now not only not-Tory but quite fanatically left-wing (more so than I am, as someone who voted Labour in that and subsequent general elections). Enthusiastic convert syndrome, buyer's remorse, or whatever I suppose.

[CumbrianLefty]

I’ve been reading the reaction re labours private school policy.

Is there another policy where people seem to be about 25 years out of date on it?

 E.g people claiming it’s an attack on the middle class when the middle class cannot afford school fees, or state schools will be swamped (they’re mostly facing the opposite problem due to declining birth rates)

Oh no I just read the Seb Pain article…

Something that is not recommended generally

His piece from Gateshead during the 2017 GE campaign remains one of the most (unintentionally, one hastens to add) hilarious things that I have ever seen in print.