UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[morgieb]

I wonder if any prospective candidates could lose their seats like Portillo did or if they're all safe?

Mordaunt's seat used to be Labour and while looks safe on 2019 figures isn't so safe that she would have nothing to fear. She came close to being PM so she is definitely a prospective candidate.

Jeremy Hunt isn't safe either, but I don't think anyone thinks he's a realistic Opposition Leader.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The major potential candidates are Braverman, Badenoch, Cleverly and Mordaunt. The first three are running in extremely safe seats with majorities just below 25,000, so would only be lost if the Tories are struggling to be the Official Opposition. Mordaunt has a pretty healthy majority, but represents a seat that has swung quite heavily in the past. A lot of Westminster commentators (and clearly she herself) believe she has a personal vote; I don't think there's clear evidence of that from prior election results but it may be the case.

There are probably going to be a fair few other candidates who will throw their hats into the ring, and it's entirely possible that some of those outsiders planning leadership campaigns when the short campaign starts won't have a seat by the time it ends. With a couple of exceptions, however, the members of the Cabinet mostly represent very safe seats rather than traditional marginals or semi-marginals.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are going to be more splits than that. You will have a Trussite lane; an immigration hardliner lane; an assorted culture wars lane; and a moderate lane (relative to the rest of the party, not to the country.) It will be possible for candidates to occupy more than one of those lanes, but I can't see it being a two-way contest. A lot of Tories (even those accepting they're currently on course to lose badly) believe that they can return to power after one election and that means that lots of candidates will want to be the ones to ride the expected wave.

Lots of them also thought this after 1997 - they made predictions like "Blair will be the most hated PM ever within a few years" (and yes, similar things are being said about Starmer now)

[CityofSinners]

I expect a hardliner to be the next tory leader. Expect a lot of arguments that they tried to be moderate with Sunak and it failed.
Wouldn't be surprised if Johnson's removal from office will be seen as an mistake or even Truss or at least her policies getting a second look.

Starmer will be seen as a weak one-term PM much like republicans see Biden.

[MABA 2020]

I know they won't, but it'd be great if they make Truss LOTO, just lock down that second term right off the bat.

[oldtimer]

I expect a hardliner to be the next tory leader. Expect a lot of arguments that they tried to be moderate with Sunak and it failed.
Wouldn't be surprised if Johnson's removal from office will be seen as an mistake or even Truss or at least her policies getting a second look.

Starmer will be seen as a weak one-term PM much like republicans see Biden.

It does look like Labour are going to win a massive landslide and then lose it in just 1 term, just like the Conservatives after 2019:

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-ed-miliband-comparison-labour-leader-lost-election-b1107954.html

You can already see the outlines of why Starmer is going to be ousted from power, and why he's very cautious in an effort to try to turn around his image.

[MABA 2020]

I expect a hardliner to be the next tory leader. Expect a lot of arguments that they tried to be moderate with Sunak and it failed.
Wouldn't be surprised if Johnson's removal from office will be seen as an mistake or even Truss or at least her policies getting a second look.

Starmer will be seen as a weak one-term PM much like republicans see Biden.

It does look like Labour are going to win a massive landslide and then lose it in just 1 term, just like the Conservatives after 2019:

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-ed-miliband-comparison-labour-leader-lost-election-b1107954.html

You can already see the outlines of why Starmer is going to be ousted from power, and why he's very cautious in an effort to try to turn around his image.

You're assuming the Tories can pull themselves together in one term, a big assumption to make. Yes Starmer isn't likely to be a beloved PM but that won't matter if the Tories are giving people like Truss airtime.

[oldtimer]

I expect a hardliner to be the next tory leader. Expect a lot of arguments that they tried to be moderate with Sunak and it failed.
Wouldn't be surprised if Johnson's removal from office will be seen as an mistake or even Truss or at least her policies getting a second look.

Starmer will be seen as a weak one-term PM much like republicans see Biden.

It does look like Labour are going to win a massive landslide and then lose it in just 1 term, just like the Conservatives after 2019:

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/keir-starmer-ed-miliband-comparison-labour-leader-lost-election-b1107954.html

You can already see the outlines of why Starmer is going to be ousted from power, and why he's very cautious in an effort to try to turn around his image.

You're assuming the Tories can pull themselves together in one term, a big assumption to make. Yes Starmer isn't likely to be a beloved PM but that won't matter if the Tories are giving people like Truss airtime.

Things are unstable, the Consevatives self-destructed with amazing speed after their landslide victory because the British economy sucks too much for too long (2015,17,19 and probably 2024, look like a very fluid electorate).

And Starmer already being hated by the public even before being in office is unprecedented.

But the Conservatives might not survive, the public might vote someone else out of desperation after a 1 term Labour government failure.

However I think Starmer is aware of the trouble he's about to get in, so he may put a serious effort to turn the economy around once in office.

[oldtimer]

To give a brief description of how fluid british public opinion since the stagnation began:

2015: Gave the "middle finger" to the LD and Scottish Labour.
2017: Almost voted a Socialist in power.
2019: Gave the "middle finger" to the anti-nationalists (those who opposed SNP and Cons).
2024: Poised to give the "middle finger" to the nationalists (SNP, Cons).

We are talking about very large movements of angry voters from one election to the other.

[oldtimer]

There are going to be more splits than that. You will have a Trussite lane; an immigration hardliner lane; an assorted culture wars lane; and a moderate lane (relative to the rest of the party, not to the country.) It will be possible for candidates to occupy more than one of those lanes, but I can't see it being a two-way contest. A lot of Tories (even those accepting they're currently on course to lose badly) believe that they can return to power after one election and that means that lots of candidates will want to be the ones to ride the expected wave.

Lots of them also thought this after 1997 - they made predictions like "Blair will be the most hated PM ever within a few years" (and yes, similar things are being said about Starmer now)

And those predictions about Blair turned accurate, but it was the LD's that benefited not the Conservatives.

In fact every warning about an incoming PM turned out true in the end, in a shakespearean fashion.

[Blair]

There’s been early mutterings of worries that if you fall below 150 MPs it risks a very very weird parliamentary party who would put Braverman v Redwood or something hilariously inept as the final ballot.

There might be a push for Sunak to do a Callaghan and stay leader until the rules are changed but imho good luck with that

[Torrain]

Yesterday, the day after Truss demanded Sunak drop Net Zero environmental commitments, it’s been leaked that he’s planning to do just that.

Reports that moderate Tories are threatening to send letters of no confidence if Sunak goes ahead with the policy shift. Chris Skidmore and Alok Sharma have both come out swinging.

Johnson allies are also on the record against the move - both environmentalists like Zac Goldsmith, and those with more mixed records like Simon Clarke.

Timing of the leak is pretty calculated. Makes Sunak look like he’s folding to Truss (which is just *awful* optics). And also comes while the UK has a climate delegation at the UN General Assembly.

For his part, Sunak released a testy statement at 9pm, defending a rollback of environmental rules. Apparently he’s going to hold a press conference today outlining the changes, because Downing Street is afraid of “losing control of the narrative”. Feels kind of galling that Sunak is rolling back environmental policy, in a sudden rush, because of internal politics. Short-termism in a nutshell.

It’s not gone down well with industry so far, with companies like Ford already planning for the 2030 switch-over to electric vehicles, and demanding clarity from the government. The energy company EON has also been pretty scathing.

Edit: Sunak scheduled to speak in Downing Street at 16.30.

[Conservatopia]

I'm all for scrapping net zero but as usual this government manages to announce it in the most bungled way possible.

[Cassius]

Why are people who (purport to) believe that we can ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2030 considered to be ‘moderates’.

[Oryxslayer]

Yesterday, the day after Truss demanded Sunak drop Net Zero environmental commitments, it’s been leaked that he’s planning to do just that.

Reports that moderate Tories are threatening to send letters of no confidence if Sunak goes ahead with the policy shift. Chris Skidmore and Alok Sharma have both come out swinging.

Do it. Save us a year of political meandering.

[CumbrianLefty]

And Starmer already being hated by the public even before being in office is unprecedented.

Nah, this is just you looking at numbers on a poll without understanding the UK context. The reality is that SKS is - even more so when leaving out the hard left and right - one of the least "hated" major politicians out there. Now, he has equally few who are really enthusiastic about him - and that helps explain his generally anaemic poll figures. But back in 2019, Labour canvassers had anti-Corbyn abuse screamed at them on the doorstep on a semi-regular basis, its a safe bet that won't happen next time even if Labour doesn't do so well overall.

And if he gets office, generally low expectations could be a help - as could the opposition retreating into a delusional bunker (see Albanese currently for an illustration of all these things) Plus one thing we can be sure Labour will do, day after day, is blame the Tories for everything that has gone wrong - and past experience (as post 2010 shows only too well) suggests that can be highly effective.

Nothing is certain, but there are reasons why one term governments have been rare in the UK since WW2. We have had a period of electoral and public volatilty, yes - but sooner or later there emerges a new equilibrium out of the chaos. The next GE could well be a good one for Labour to win, for all the undoubted and formidable challenges.

[oldtimer]

Why are people who (purport to) believe that we can ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2030 considered to be ‘moderates’.

Everyone consideres themselves as sensibles moderates.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Why are people who (purport to) believe that we can ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2030 considered to be ‘moderates’.

I think because car manufacturers agree that the target is plausible and they're phasing out production of petrol and diesel cars by then?

[oldtimer]

I'm all for scrapping net zero but as usual this government manages to announce it in the most bungled way possible.

Sunak looks wooden but sounds reassuring in his speech today, his focus on consent rather than imposition and family costs are effective.

I like his approach of not forcing people to do things they can't afford, and not banning technologies in his speech so far, plus investment for more research.

It's obviously a dash for growth and lower consumer bills to turn things around (Starmer would need similar policies), but ditching any Boris's whimsical idea is a good thing.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1704524138944123188?t=IABtuGIFARqaHGVIG0xfew&a...

1/3rd of labour voters supporting today's announcements is a warning light that green policies are ironically unsustainable.

[MaxQue]

I'm all for scrapping net zero but as usual this government manages to announce it in the most bungled way possible.

Sunak looks wooden but sounds reassuring in his speech today, his focus on consent rather than imposition and family costs are effective.

I like his approach of not forcing people to do things they can't afford, and not banning technologies in his speech so far, plus investment for more research.

It's obviously a dash for growth and lower consumer bills to turn things around (Starmer would need similar policies), but ditching any Boris's whimsical idea is a good thing.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1704524138944123188?t=IABtuGIFARqaHGVIG0xfew&a...

1/3rd of labour voters supporting today's announcements is a warning light that green policies are ironically unsustainable.

This shows your poor knowledge of UK, as those poll numbers are caused by fearmongering by media aligned with the hard right wing of the Conservative Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Half the stuff he says he's scrapping doesn't actually exist and hasn't been proposed.

[Vosem]

This shows your poor knowledge of UK, as those poll numbers are caused by fearmongering by media aligned with the hard right wing of the Conservative Party.

Why would that make them invalid?

[oldtimer]

Half the stuff he says he's scrapping doesn't actually exist and hasn't been proposed.

But now Labour will have to deny that it will impose them.

Green policies are the center-left's greatest weakness.

[Pericles]

Sunak is doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons. This is the last gasp of a doomed government but will ensure he is despised by future generations long after the upcoming election.

[Blair]

Sunak is doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons. This is the last gasp of a doomed government but will ensure he is despised by future generations long after the upcoming election.

The negative feedback loop of the Times, Sun and Mail and the joy of people shouting ‘dividing line’ at Labour means that he’ll get a few days of breathless coverage.