UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[afleitch]

FWIW, I decided to look at the 2019 and wonder what would happen if everything was the same, except reducing the votes to take into account who died and adding those who are now of an age to vote.

Age as an indicator of voting is very strong. And is most pronounced among the very young and very old.

I did a quick calculation based on mortality rates, including increased mortality rates due to COVID. I used the YouGov 'How Britain Voted ' data as it gave weighting as well as voting intention.

With new voters who reached majority, I have gave the same voting intention as their peers in 2019.

I then forecast it to December 2024.

The Tory GB share drops 2.8, Labour's share rises by 2.6 and the Lib Dems drops 0.1. The SNP GB share is up 0.3.

This is a significant 'swing' with all else being equal.

On a uniform national swing the Tory majority wrote significantly.

Hopefully someone actually does some proper analysis to confirm this.

[CumbrianLefty]

Voting allegiance has always bee n age related *to a degree*, but since the 2010 GE its salience has increased massively, to hitherto unheard of levels.

Quite possibly, this has bought the Tories short tern riches at the cost of genuine long term grief.

[afleitch]

Voting allegiance has always bee n age related *to a degree*, but since the 2010 GE its salience has increased massively, to hitherto unheard of levels.

Quite possibly, this has bought the Tories short tern riches at the cost of genuine long term grief.

Yeah. Age and education are now better predictors than objective or subjective class or income.

FWIW, a repeat of the 2017 election would see a 4 or 5 pt Labour lead.

'Over 65' is also such a huge demographic that it contains diverging voting patterns within it. But they have became hyper Conservative to the point that they still lead in most polls.

Younger voters have shifted the other way. The 'left' (or rather non Conservative) trend of millennial voters over nearly twenty years now is contrary to what historically, they should be doing. That's absolutely disastrous.

[Blair]

Hazy about the details now, but ISTR that there was a major push back against Hague's "reforming" efforts a year or two into his leadership (partly due to the lack of results) which resulted in a notable rightward shift in his rhetoric and priorities. This maybe bought some short term wins (in the 2000 local elections, for example) but was never likely to succeed in a GE where Blair still had hegemony.

Yes he went to Notting Hill Carnival iirc! And bizarrely he turned rightwards just after Portillo was reborn as a moderate and returned to the commons as his shadow chancellor which led to a bad
result.

I can’t recall if that was the election Letwin made some stupid claim about spending and essentially got locked in a cupboard for the whole campaign. What a funny man- really the julius Nicholson of the Tory Party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can’t recall if that was the election Letwin made some stupid claim about spending and essentially got locked in a cupboard for the whole campaign. What a funny man- really the julius Nicholson of the Tory Party.

Yes, it was that election. I remember it well!

[JimJamUK]

I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral asset.

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1692502327880556941?s=61&t=I1DE8_c...

[CumbrianLefty]

The reaction of his online claque to this is just as amusingly deranged as we have come to expect.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Peter Wilby, who was the editor of the New Statesman 1998-2005 having previously also edited the Independent on Sunday (1995-6), has been convicted making indecent images of children.

[morgieb]

I don’t think Jeremy Corbyn was an electoral asset.

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1692502327880556941?s=61&t=I1DE8_c...

Ooof. Though in saying that this poll still had him ahead....

Would be interesting to see the map, if nothing else.

[CumbrianLefty]

At its peak (just after the 2017 GE) Corbyn's Labour polled 46%, as with Starmer's party in this one.

If nothing else, shows what an opportunity was squandered (for multiple reasons) back then.

[Pericles]

The idea that an economic recovery will save the Tories looks extra silly now. Just like in 1997, voters hate the government too much to give it any benefit of the doubt.

A YouGov poll for the Times found that only 8% of voters credited government policy for the fall in inflation, which dropped to 6.8% last month, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics last week.

More people, 17%, believe the Bank of England is responsible despite criticism of its response to high inflation. In June Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, blamed flaws in the Bank’s economic forecasting after it failed to get a grip on runaway inflation.

The polling suggests that the most commonly believed reason for the fall in inflation is external factors such as global oil and gas prices. Thirty-eight per cent cited external factors, but 31% said they did not know what was responsible for the easing of price rises.

The polling is more stark in red wall seats in northern England, where only 5% thought government policy had brought inflation down.

Only 8% of voters give Sunak credit for falling inflation

[CumbrianLefty]

And the response of quite a few (not totally unreasonably) is "*what* fall in inflation"?

[Silent Hunter]

And the response of quite a few (not totally unreasonably) is "*what* fall in inflation"?

Yes, it's an average, remember.

[Torrain]

On Pericles’ point, it’s tempting to make comparisons to 1997, once again.

Just as the memory of Black Wednesday seems to have stuck with voters long after the economy got back on track, the spectre of Truss (and the ongoing mortgage situation) may well outweigh even fairly successful attempts to wrangle inflation and throw last-minute tax cuts at the electorate (all but confirmed to be Hunt’s plan for next year).

Certainly, it would explain the fairly stubborn Labour lead since the mini-budget.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its often forgotten how well the economy did after Black Wednesday - there were three years of pretty solid growth prior to the 1997 GE, and unemployment fell for even longer.

It made, at the most, a marginal difference.

[YL]

On Pericles’ point, it’s tempting to make comparisons to 1997, once again.

Just as the memory of Black Wednesday seems to have stuck with voters long after the economy got back on track, the spectre of Truss (and the ongoing mortgage situation) may well outweigh even fairly successful attempts to wrangle inflation and throw last-minute tax cuts at the electorate (all but confirmed to be Hunt’s plan for next year).

Certainly, it would explain the fairly stubborn Labour lead since the mini-budget.

Both the mini-budget and Black Wednesday are occasions on which they made a mess of their "reputation for economic competence" in ways which affected many people directly.

[Blair]

The problem ofc with Inflation is that the Government try to celebrate it falling and have set up a political test around it falling; but it's something where it doesn't translate in the food shop. Even when inflation fell I think food inflation either rose or remained the same; it just annoys people and its ofc the battle that other centre-left governments faced after 2008 and which Biden is grappling with.

The other issue as well if that unlike 2010-2015 mortgage holders are still absolutely screwed; this will be a very visible reminder especially as people I think link the problems with Liz Truss and the Conservative mini-budget.

The recent selby by-election was perhaps a sign as I read it is the seat with the highest number of mortgage holders; a key part of the Conservative coalition since 2010 too has been 'youngish' families in their late 20s and 30s who've managed to get a foot on the market outside of the South-East. I know of at least 2-3 couples who voted Conservative in 2015 as the economic model was broadly working well for them.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1694242399264932258
Bit odd. Replacing Wallace necessitates a mini reshuffle as it is (assuming he’s replaced with another cabinet member, the Chief Sec to the Treasury, or the Armed Forces minister). And then you’re left with a bunch of ministers who’ll go into party conference nervily auditioning to either keep their job, or vie for a promotion.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1694242399264932258
Bit odd. Replacing Wallace necessitates a mini reshuffle as it is (assuming he’s replaced with another cabinet member, the Chief Sec to the Treasury, or the Armed Forces minister). And then you’re left with a bunch of ministers who’ll go into party conference nervily auditioning to either keep their job, or vie for a promotion.

If this is true, then there are two things at play here:

1. Sunak would like to fire Braverman, because she is both unpopular and incompetent. However, she won't go quietly and his primary aim throughout his tenure has been to keep the right of the party on-side, so he is reluctant to force that confrontation;

2. Very few of the leading ministers are in the eyes of commentators or the public doing a good job, but from the point of view of Sunak he doesn't want them to do anything different, he just wants their inaction to be more popular.

[CumbrianLefty]

<awaiting a certain political commentator telling us this means Sunak is a "weak" leader>

[Torrain]

Murray Foote has been announced as the new CEO of the SNP.

If that name is familiar, it’s because he resigned as the SNP’s Head of Communications a few months ago, after it was revealed that he’d lied to journalists about the SNP membership numbers.

He’s kept a low profile since, popping up only to deride the Police Scotland investigation into the SNP as “grotesque”.

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the asylum backlog doubling is evidence of government success. Or something.

[NewYorkExpress]

The family of William Gladstone has apologized for Gladstone's links to the slave trade.

The family of former British Prime Minister William Gladstone apologised for their family’s slave-owning past in Guyana on Friday, as descendants of slaves have sought reparations.

William’s father, John, was one of the largest slaveholders in the parts of the Caribbean colonised by Britain. He is also believed to have owned two ships that transported thousands of Asians from India and elsewhere to work as indentured labourers after the abolition of slavery in 1834.

“Slavery was a crime against humanity and its damaging impact continues to be felt across the world today,” Charles Gladstone, William’s great-great grandson, said at a launch for the University of Guyana’s International Centre for the Study of Migration and Diaspora.

“It is with deep shame and regret that we acknowledge our ancestor’s involvement in this crime and with heartfelt sincerity that we apologise to the descendants of the enslaved in Guyana,” he added.

“We also urge other descendants of those who benefited from slavery to open conversations about their ancestors’ crimes and what they might be able to do to build a better future.”

The Gladstones also apologised for their role in indentureship – which bound workers with their employers.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nadine Dorries has officially resigned.

UK member of parliament Nadine Dorries has delivered a scathing attack on her Conservative Party's leader Rishi Sunak in her formal resignation letter, accusing the prime minister of running a "zombie parliament" and lacking any political vision.

Dorries, a close ally of former leader Boris Johnson, had announced in June she would quit and then faced mounting criticism for not actually doing so, preventing the election to replace her from being held alongside three other local votes last month.

Dorries formally quit late on Saturday with a lengthy resignation letter that tore into Sunak. The by-election to replace her will likely take place in the autumn, presenting the Conservatives with another test of their popularity when they are trailing the opposition Labour Party in opinion polls

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Under the circumstances, 'descendants of John Gladstone' would be more accurate.