UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Angela Crawley, SNP MP for Lanark and Hamilton East, is standing down at the next election.

Could be another interesting race. It was safe Labour pre-2015. Ever since then the SNP have won it, but it's become an SNP-Tory marginal. It's one of those that's been put back into the SNP-Labour marginal column by a number of projections for next year.

Assume there's some selection deadlines going on in the SNP at the minute (although I haven't seen anything public), given that, after a long period of quiet, we've had three retirement annoucements in recent weeks.

[JimJamUK]

Angela Crawley, SNP MP for Lanark and Hamilton East, is standing down at the next election.

Could be another interesting race. It was safe Labour pre-2015. Ever since then the SNP have won it, but it's become an SNP-Tory marginal. It's one of those that's been put back into the SNP-Labour marginal column by a number of projections for next year.

0.7% between 1st and 3rd place in 2017. Tories in 2nd as you say, but far enough behind that they won’t bother too much and with a disproportionately large number of Tory/Labour swing voters who should switch back to Labour in droves under the present circumstances.

[JimJamUK]

Labour have a 25% lead in the latest YouGov poll, the Tories are on only 22%. The combination of Boris resigning and the greater prominence of how awful and enduring inflation is seems to be pushing the government towards Truss level unpopularity without them even taking specific actions to suddenly get there.

[CumbrianLefty]

lmao

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1671879687407276032?s=20

Incredibly, there are still people who have as one of their reasons for hoping/fearing "another 1992" that he will somehow outclass Starmer during an election campaign.

[Torrain]

SNP’s independence conference appears to have devolved into the crowd being instructed to chant the party’s slogan over and over again:
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1672631891441115137

[Conservatopia]

Westminster is Yes Minister
Hollyrood is House of Cards

[Torrain]

Westminster is Yes Minister
Hollyrood is House of Cards

If Holyrood is House of Cards, then it’s the US version about 5 series in, once all the original writers are gone, and the charismatic lead character has been cancelled.

[JimJamUK]

The SNP are now saying that a majority of Scottish seats at the next general election would be enough for a referendum, or if that is not granted, taking it as a mandate to negotiate independence. Rather less clear answers on what would happen when PM Starmer says no, and how 40% of the vote on a 70% turnout would be a legitimate mandate for independence.

[Torrain]

Yeah… lots of questions out of this event. What happens if the SNP win the popular vote but Labour wins more seats - or vice versa? Is Yousaf really suggesting that a mandate of 34-38% might be enough to basically unilaterally start secession proceedings?

Honestly, I think this is all probably more about keeping activists onside - under current polling, than any real strategy. Because this approach just seems …implausible.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah… lots of questions out of this event. What happens if the SNP win the popular vote but Labour wins more seats - or vice versa? Is Yousaf really suggesting that a mandate of 34-38% might be enough to basically unilaterally start secession proceedings?

Honestly, I think this is all probably more about keeping activists onside - under current polling, than any real strategy. Because this approach just seems …implausible.

A related way to read it is that the SNP doesn't expect to win a majority of seats at the next Westminster election.

[Torrain]

A related way to read it is that the SNP doesn't expect to win a majority of seats at the next Westminster election.

It’s where my mind goes - but I’m way too jumpy about the next election to say that with any certainty. It’s only with polls in the past fortnight that the SNP being kept under 50% of seats (or even behind Labour…) has started to seem plausible.

I do think Yousaf’s moment of maximum weakness is directly after the UK General Election, if current polling *is* borne out. The last thing the SNP want going into the 2026 Holyrood election is a proven loser, who could take Independence off the agenda for a term or two - and the Forbes-Ewing wing will probably seize any opening they can get.

[Frodo]

In short, the implosion of the Scottish National Party shouldn't be taken as an implosion of the independence movement in Scotland, since Keir Starmer will still need their support in the event of a hung parliament after next year's elections to take power in Westminster.  To do that, he will need to give them some concessions, perhaps including a second independence referendum, or if not that then at least greater economic autonomy particularly when it concerns taxation.
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That is quite a spin, I will give the author that:

The SNP implosion could lead to a more independent Scotland. Here’s how

[JimJamUK]

In short, the implosion of the Scottish National Party shouldn't be taken as an implosion of the independence movement in Scotland, since Keir Starmer will still need their support in the event of a hung parliament after next year's elections to take power in Westminster.  To do that, he will need to give them some concessions, perhaps including a second independence referendum, or if not that then at least greater economic autonomy particularly when it concerns taxation.
------------------------

That is quite a spin, I will give the author that:

The SNP implosion could lead to a more independent Scotland. Here’s how

The first line is sort of right but for the wrong reasons. Polling has shown there’s a decent segment of the population who remain pro-independence but have switched away from the SNP in recent months. These people have not fundamentally changed their views on independence, they’re just soft enough that they are comfortable voting Labour in the present circumstances (long term Labour will hope they become soft unionists). The full article is obviously wrong though. The SNP implosion has increased the chances of a Labour majority, and even in the event of a hung Parliament it will result in a weaker SNP result where Labour are more likely to have a non-SNP majority, feel more confident to stand their ground in demanding unconditional SNP support, and threaten a 2nd election where they paint the SNP as allying themselves with the Tories to stop a Labour government replacing the hated Tory government.

[Хahar 🤔]

A poll earlier this week had Labour up 25 points nationally and yet media people are still clinging to the hung parliament dream.

[Pericles]

UK polling is so volatile that I wouldn't rule it out completely. In a somewhat similar situation, the Tories were leading by 20 points a year before the 2010 election that resulted in a hung parliament (and infamously lead by 20 points a few weeks before the 2017 hung parliament, but such a quick shift in a campaign was likely a perfect storm).

[afleitch]

SNP 'implosion' narratives seem incredibly short sighted and also extremely interesting to watch from my perspective.

[MacShimidh]

Those hoping for an SNP wipeout will of course be disappointed, as will those hoping for a return to the pre-2015 norm. But the party is certainly on track for sustained losses, and possibly even a worse result than 2017. How the SNP reacts to such a setback with an underwhelming leader and no clear direction of travel will be fascinating to see.

[JimJamUK]

The government is hinting that it will ignore the recommended pay rises from public sector pay bodies. These bodies have previously been viewed as an ‘independent’ way for the government to limit pay rises, so for even them to now be too ambitious for the government is not good news for public sector workers, recruitment, and of course strikes.

[CumbrianLefty]

But aren't the optics of that going to be absolutely awful?

(yes I know, nothing new there these days - but still)

[WD]

https://twitter.com/los_fisher/status/1673217724313489412?s=46

Seems like a waste

[Torrain]

Douglas Chapman (Dunfermline and West Fife) becomes the 4th SNP MP to stand down in the past fortnight.

Chapman won a 10k majority in 2019, but only beat Labour by 800 votes in 2017. He’s probably most notable for his brief tenure as SNP Treasurer, being preceded and succeeded by Colin Beattie. 


Edit: Another one - fifth in three weeks.

Stewart Hosie (SNP MP for Dundee East) is also retiring. 13k majority in 2019, and 6k majority in 2017. Potentially winnable in a good year for Labour north of the border, but I'm not exactly betting against the SNP in Dundee of all places.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1674373987336331264

Edit: for full effect...

[TheTide]

I'm surprised he (Sunak) allowed that to be taken. He's clearly quite insecure about his height - note this picture (taken just after the 1922 Committee confirmed him as the leader) and the camera angle.

[CumbrianLefty]

Supreme Court declares the government's Rwanda thing illegal.

[Torrain]

SNP’s marine protection policy (a key tenet of the SNP-Green coalition) has been scrapped:
https://twitter.com/HolyroodDaily/status/1674391536836964353