UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

He is just so bad at this stuff.

[Torrain]

There’s a story in the Guardian this afternoon about Braverman trying to get out of the three-line whip on her own Illegal Migration Bill to go to a photo shoot.

The chief whip, Simon Hart, eventually had to call Braverman directly to instruct her to attend the vote on the illegal migration bill, which had a three-line whip... Braverman had wanted to visit a police station instead.

Feels like *someone* is gunning for her at this point. Sunak seemed suitably rattled at the G7 press conference that it doesn’t seem likely to be him. But am curious if it’ll turn out someone decided to stick the knife in, while the PM was out of the country, no less.

[Blair]

He is just so bad at this stuff.

Remarkable how little this is said; because he has the support of the Cameroons and media types in the party it gets swept under the rug.

He was awful in the leadership husting & was quite noticeably kept away from the local elections. There is a sense of entitlement and arrogance that comes from someone who has never had to win anything for 8 years. 

[EastAnglianLefty]

There’s a story in the Guardian this afternoon about Braverman trying to get out of the three-line whip on her own Illegal Migration Bill to go to a photo shoot.

The chief whip, Simon Hart, eventually had to call Braverman directly to instruct her to attend the vote on the illegal migration bill, which had a three-line whip... Braverman had wanted to visit a police station instead.

Feels like *someone* is gunning for her at this point. Sunak seemed suitably rattled at the G7 press conference that it doesn’t seem likely to be him. But am curious if it’ll turn out someone decided to stick the knife in, while the PM was out of the country, no less.

The fact that at least one of the sources is somebody who knows what Hart was doing does narrow down the list of suspects quite considerably.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of rumours flying about that, one way or another, SB won't be in the Cabinet a week from now.

[Torrain]

Aye - lots in the ether today.

I’m sympathetic (but not entirely won over) to the thinking that Braverman had been considering resigning when the immigration numbers drop this week* - and that this briefing has been done by an internal opponent who’s looking to prevent her leaving on her own terms.

* _{It’s tortured logic to imagine Braverman could resign and use it as an an opportunity to successfully attack the government for stymying her - but I could absolutely see her trying it, in her quest to become Leader of the Opposition next year.}

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

It looks as though they have found (or are about to) Madeleine McCann, given the current headline on the BBC News website, which will undoubtedly overshadow the Braverman nonsense.

[icc]

Aye - lots in the ether today.

I’m sympathetic (but not entirely won over) to the thinking that Braverman had been considering resigning when the immigration numbers drop this week* - and that this briefing has been done by an internal opponent who’s looking to prevent her leaving on her own terms.

* _{It’s tortured logic to imagine Braverman could resign and use it as an an opportunity to successfully attack the government for stymying her - but I could absolutely see her trying it, in her quest to become Leader of the Opposition next year.}

Remember that this is a woman who launched a leadership bid against a sitting incumbent whilst refusing to resign from the cabinet. Logic means nothing here.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1660941692042715136?t=5jIr1Y2gAfqOi1Lq0eO...
Might help Sunak

[Torrain]

The Independent: Suella Braverman accused of fresh ministerial code breaches after failing to disclose Rwanda links

Suella Braverman is facing fresh allegations of ministerial code breaches over her failure to formally disclose years of previous work with the Rwandan government.

The home secretary co-founded a charity called the Africa Justice Foundation with Cherie Blair, which trained Rwandan government lawyers between 2010 and 2015.

Several people the charity worked with are now key members of President Paul Kagame’s government and are involved in the UK’s £140m deal to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

This feels like a bigger deal than the speeding stuff

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1660941692042715136?t=5jIr1Y2gAfqOi1Lq0eO...
Might help Sunak

Well apart from IMF forecasts being notoriously shonky (questioning them was one thing that Truss got right in last summer's leadership campaign) it could well be another case of what we saw during the 2016 Brexit campaign - "economic growth for who exactly?"

And of course, the economy was growing a lot more strongly in the run up to the 1997 GE......

[JimJamUK]

Suella Braverman is facing fresh allegations of ministerial code breaches over her failure to formally disclose years of previous work with the Rwandan government.

The home secretary co-founded a charity called the Africa Justice Foundation with Cherie Blair, which trained Rwandan government lawyers between 2010 and 2015.

Several people the charity worked with are now key members of President Paul Kagame’s government and are involved in the UK’s £140m deal to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

How random.

Not dissimilarly:
https://twitter.com/alexandrakuri/status/1660967887669010435?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg...

[YL]

Someone was offering to pay for people's CUCA membership for a year to get their votes in internal CUCA elections?  Seriously?

In other news, it has been reported that the Pope is Catholic.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1661054974447566856
Ain’t no party(gate) like a Boris party(gate), because a Boris party(gate) never stops.

[Torrain]

Appears Johnson’s use of taxpayer-funded, Government-employed lawyers may have been his downfall this time -
https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1661058134910156823

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is becoming increasingly clear that former Liberal Democrats should not be appointed to important public posts in this country.

[JimJamUK]

It is becoming increasingly clear that former Liberal Democrats should not be appointed to important public posts in this country.

Who are you referring to in this case (apart from Truss, obvs)?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It is becoming increasingly clear that former Liberal Democrats should not be appointed to important public posts in this country.

Who are you referring to in this case (apart from Truss, obvs)?

Baroness Falkner?

[Torrain]

Wild evening of briefing and counter-briefing in the Conservative Party:

• Johnson threatening defamation lawsuit against the Cabinet Office for suggesting he broke (more) lockdown laws
• Rees-Mogg seemingly admitting he broke quarantine by driving his family to Chequers to play cricket with Johnson
• Anonymous former cabinet ministers flirting with deep state conspiracies: "I didn't really believe in the 'blob' till now. But the events of the last few days - the repeated briefing against Suella and now tonight's action against Boris - are beginning to make me think again
• And supposed grandees making open threats: “There is now an open witch hunt against right wingers in the Conservative Party. The leadership of the party must shut this down immediately. Active conversations are underway among MPs about how to respond to this and nothing is off the table.”

[Torrain]

New MRP YouGov poll shows a very close race in Scotland:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1661276193734230017

Full article with link to numbers: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/05/24/scotland-mrp-snp-could-fall-just-27-seats-if-elect

[afleitch]

Would need to see the figures/demographics the model uses. Ipsos Mori have just given a 12pt SNP lead.

[icc]

New MRP YouGov poll shows a very close race in Scotland:
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1661276193734230017

As you'd expect, lots of very close seats - e.g. Rutherglen is only projected to have a 5.5% majority.

Interestingly for Labour, this shows that if they can get momentum into the campaign and overcome the 17/19 tactical calculus then a whole host more seats could be in play - East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh SW, Stirling, the Ayrshire seats.

[Torrain]

Interestingly for Labour, this shows that if they can get momentum into the campaign and overcome the 17/19 tactical calculus then a whole host more seats could be in play - East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh SW, Stirling, the Ayrshire seats.

Aye, that's definitely one of the most important take-aways. Can't imagine Labour will be comfortable enough to pour a ton of resources into what'll probably be viewed as "reach seats", but a major story if the Blair-era strength can potentially be reassembled in seats that have largely become SNP-Tory marginals since 2017.

And in response to afleitch's point - they're both just one poll, and deserve scrutiny, but I don't think it's fair to throw out the YouGov numbers just because they show a closer race - especially one broadly in line with the aggregate numbers we see in Scotland-specific Westminster polling right now:

Also, Ipsos-Mori numbers, for clarity:

[Torrain]

Slightly mad afternoon in the official government COVID inquiry.

The inquiry have threatened legal action against the cabinet office after they refused to hand over Johnson's personal phone messages (claiming it would be a breach of his human right to privacy, apparently). Apparently Johnson's texts about the Sarah Everard vigil were of particular contention (Johnson's team argue they were irrelevant, the inquiry team pushed hard to get access to them).

Following the row over Johnson's government lawyers handing his diaries over to the police, on advice from the cabinet office, Johnson has also dispensed with his personal lawyers, and is in the process of hiring a new (tax-payer funded) team.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ipsos are almost invariably the most favourable to the SNP and independence in their Scottish polls, for whatever reason. Also not sure if the Tories going up as much as Labour since their last survey really passes the smell test (its not what other recent efforts have shown)