UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Latest YouGov poll finds a 28% lead for Labour over the Conservatives. We're heading back to the numbers the Tories were posting in the latter days of Truss:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1628356714155180034

[TheTide]

And Sunak's performance on the Better PM question is similar to that of BoJo from the breaking of Partygate (late 2021) onwards. Quite appalling for a 'safe pair of hands' who is only four months into the job.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1628356717456281600?s=20

[oldtimer]

And Sunak's performance on the Better PM question is similar to that of BoJo from the breaking of Partygate (late 2021) onwards. Quite appalling for a 'safe pair of hands' who is only four months into the job.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1628356717456281600?s=20

Makes the argument that Conservative MP's should not have the right to choose their Leader.

[Torrain]

Makes the argument that Conservative MP's should not have the right to choose their Leader.

Counterpoint - if you take it out of the hands of MPs - it’s all on the membership. And we know where that road leads:

[oldtimer]

Makes the argument that Conservative MP's should not have the right to choose their Leader.

Counterpoint - if you take it out of the hands of MPs - it’s all on the membership. And we know where that road leads:

I know, but it's funny the MP's vote has lead to the exact same result, and their electoral record has been a bad one:

Heath 1965: Bad , MP's
Thatcher 1975: Good , MP's
Thatcher 1989: Bad, MP's
Major 1990: Good ,MP's
Major 1995: Bad ,MP's
Hague 1997: Bad ,MP's
I.D.S. 2001: Never tested ,Members
Howard 2003: Bad , MP's
Cameron 2005: Bad , Members
May 2016: Bad ,MP's
May 2018: Bad ,MP's
Boris 2019: Good , Members
Boris 2022: Bad ,MP's
Truss 2022: Bad ,Members
Sunak 2022:Bad ,MP's

So in all leadership elections and no-confidence votes, conservative MP's have voted for a popular figure only in 2 out of 10 (last time 33 years ago), members have voted for a popular figure in 1 out of 3 or 4 (last  time 4 years ago).

In the end they need to ditch their de-growth policies, it won't matter who's the leader if the economy is in a bad shape.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Makes the argument that Conservative MP's should not have the right to choose their Leader.

Counterpoint - if you take it out of the hands of MPs - it’s all on the membership. And we know where that road leads:

Counter-counterpoint: It's very clear that MPs would also have picked Truss, even if they claim otherwise these days.

[CumbrianLefty]

There is nothing magically good about MPs alone choosing a leader. This is a hill I am willing to die on.

[TheTide]

Dominic Cummings making a good point!

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1628767383681748997?s=20

[Blair]

A good way to consume news is to ignore columnists like this.

There’s two good types of journalists; those who understand elections and data, and those who understand one of the main parties. The rest just tend to be people who do paper reviews.

[oldtimer]

It seems Sunak has reopened the can of worms over his new deal with the EU over Northern Ireland.

There where big hopes among Sunak's camp that a deal would revitalize his fortunes, but instead he's done a "Theresa May".

The DUP are saying a loud No.
The Brexiteers are also saying a loud No and there is speculation that a good chunk of the cabinet will resign in protest.

Sunak is now dependant on Labour to pass his EU deal against his own party at a time his party is busy pondering whether to kick him out and install Boris.

It's like February 2019 all over again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The EU gave away way too much in this deal anyway. I don't know why we keep trying to solve the Tories' political problems for them. They made their bed and they need to sleep in it.

[Torie]

It seems that the hat trick here is to leave as vague as possible who has the final say over disputes about what is subject to tariff and what is not. What are grocery shelf goods anyway? Where’s the beer section? The main imperative of everyone seems to be derive the maximum political advantage. Sunak has probably privately given up on the whole lot. I certainly would.

Under the new terms being hammered out by Mr. Sunak and negotiators from the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, food and other goods destined for grocery shelves in Northern Ireland would pass through a “green lane,” requiring no customs declarations. Goods destined for Ireland would continue to undergo border checks.

The role of the European Court of Justice is another stubborn sticking point. Unionists and Brexiteers in the Conservative Party have threatened to oppose any agreement that would leave the court with ultimate jurisdiction over Northern Ireland, arguing that this would infringe on British sovereignty.

Mr. Sunak said he was seeking a compromise that would allow Northern Ireland’s Assembly to scrutinize European Union laws — and potentially amend or reject them — before they were imposed on the territory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/world/europe/uk-northern-ireland-protocol-rishi-sunak.html

[Torrain]

Sunak's sent a timetable for tomorrow out to the Lobby:

• PM and von der Leyen to meet over lunch and "finalise discussions"
• Cabinet meet in afternoon, to be briefed (presumably on the deal), with Foreign and NI Secretaries briefing on updates.
• Some news conference (presumably joint between Sunak and von der Leyen if the deal survives cabinet)
• Sunak will then address the Commons in the evening.

Of course all this all probably relies on the deal getting through the day without a wave of brexiteer resignations, or Suella Braverman setting fire to the curtains in Downing Street, so we'll see how it plays out!

[Frodo]

YouGov have released a Scottish poll (for Westminster) which was conducted just before Sturgeon stood down:

SNP 38 (-7)
Lab 35 (+17)
Con 16 (-9)
LD 5 (-4)
Green 3 (+2)

Changes are since 2019. Usual caveats that you should be sceptical because it's just one poll and even more sceptical because it's one poll showing a big shift, but if those numbers were borne out in reality then most of the Central Belt would flip and Labour and the SNP would be approximately equal in terms of seats.

As I say, I'm sceptical, but I imagine that this is going to have some impact in the discourse.

If scottish independence is not credible the SNP becomes just another Plaid Cymru.

Or worse.  At what point will we know that the Scottish independence movement will suffer the fate of its counterpart in Quebec which nearly thirty years after the last independence referendum in 1995 (which took place fifteen years after the first referendum was defeated), no longer has any serious hope of success?  Do we have to wait until the independence advocates lose again after a second referendum?  

[oldtimer]

Sunak's sent a timetable for tomorrow out to the Lobby:

• PM and von der Leyen to meet over lunch and "finalise discussions"
• Cabinet meet in afternoon, to be briefed (presumably on the deal), with Foreign and NI Secretaries briefing on updates.
• Some news conference (presumably joint between Sunak and von der Leyen if the deal survives cabinet)
• Sunak will then address the Commons in the evening.

Of course all this all probably relies on the deal getting through the day without a wave of brexiteer resignations, or Suella Braverman setting fire to the curtains in Downing Street, so we'll see how it plays out!

When Theresa May had to go through all that she started at the high 30's in the polls and ended up about where Sunak is today in the low 20's before being forced out.

Sunak is already flying close to the ground.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like His Majesty may effectively get dragged into internal Tory squabbles.

Is this just Sunak not being terribly good at actual politics again?

(hopefully it is, rather than something more sinister)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Betty Boothroyd, the first female Speaker of the House of Commons, has died. She was ninety three and had looked frail for a few years, though was still active because a certain sort of person never quite retires entirely.

[Torrain]

Sad to hear about Boothroyd. Even in the past five years, she made some decent contributions to the Lords, and could still summon that old fire. I don’t think it would be too controversial to describe her as one of the most even-handed and most authoritative Speakers of the past half-century.

*

On Brian getting dragged into today’s shenanigans, I’m not sure how to take it yet. The fact that Buckingham Palace’s statement explicitly refers to him meeting with her on the “advice of government” does suggest Sunak may have approached this more as a cheap brand endorsement, rather than the careful constitutional matter it actually is.

Willing to wait and see - it might be more sensitive than that.

[Cassius]

Thatcher’s long serving press Secretary, Bernard Ingham, has also died (aged 90).

https://www.ft.com/content/b3236a82-eaa9-49f8-95d2-a2566a8d8ec7

[Torrain]

Mood music sounds good - Sunak and UvdL both selling their “Windsor Framework” pretty enthusiastically, and backbenchers broadly sounding positive so far (one Tory even gloating about how this “finishes off” chances of a pre-2024 Johnson comeback).

We’ll see what happens when it hits cabinet, but - so far, so good.

Should note, personal biases are kicking in here - have very personal links to NI, and they also talks positively about restoring UK position in EU science funding mechanism (also close to my heart - thanks to the career). So I may be a little giddy. But feels like a good start.

[Torrain]

Next steps seems to be the Tory charm offensive:

• Sunak still expected to speak to Commons around 18.30, making the case for this new framework
• Sunak addresses the 1922 committee (so basically any backbencher who wants to listen) later this evening.
• Mark Francois has called a ‘plenary’ meeting of the 60+ ERG MPs for tomorrow, around 18.00.

So far, the DUP are non-committal (although the TUV are, of course, angry).

Amongst the ERG, we don’t have many on the record yet, except from Steve Baker, who’s doing a media round praising the deal, and pledging his support for it. Baker was always going to be on TV tonight, either praising the bill or explaining his resignation - so that feels like a good start for Sunak.

Should note - Sunak has (in the small print) explicitly committed to drop the NI Protocol bill Johnson has been endorsing at every opportunity. Makes sense (passing it seems to be a one-way trip to a trade war) but could lead to some fireworks from his close allies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So who will hate this speech the most? Who will love it the most?

[oldtimer]

So who will hate this speech the most? Who will love it the most?

The Liberals will love it the most, but they where always fawning for Sunak.

Big presentations in Britain always come with a big bang and end with a boring slumper, like Budget Day.

We will see by Friday if Sunak has improved his position or not.

[Torrain]

So who will hate this speech the most?

Probably Boris Johnson. Man hates Sunak and any success he obtains, particularly given this deal makes it harder to launch a backbench rebellion that destabilises his premiership.

Mark Francois (ERG Chair) is predictably a bit put-out. And DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr, who’s inherited the family temper, isn’t happy either, but he rarely is.

Who will love it the most?

For my money: Tory MPs who just want this to be over, and optimistic Labour MPs who are glad they don’t have to spend as much time and political capital on Northern Irish tensions after the next election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So who will hate this speech the most?

Probably Boris Johnson. Man hates Sunak and any success he obtains, particularly given this deal makes it harder to launch a backbench rebellion that destabilises his premiership.

Mark Francois (ERG Chair) is predictably a bit put-out. And DUP MP Ian Paisley Jr, who’s inherited the family temper, isn’t happy either, but he rarely is.

Who will love it the most?

For my money: Tory MPs who just want this to be over, and optimistic Labour MPs who are glad they don’t have to spend as much time and political capital on Northern Irish tensions after the next election.

Ah. Thanks for the run-down.