UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Deltapoll and R&W both have polling out today - looks like the Sunak honeymoon has definitely come to a close. Just thought it was worth taking a snapshot of the electorate before the Autumn Statement comes along.
https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1592175611375763457
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1592200698984177664
Certainly, the Budget will be more salient than any Sunak honeymoon, in polls released after the 17th. I guess there's a chance the public will reward the Conservatives for "taking the hard choices" as they've repeatedly told us was necessary. But it could (probably idk?) entrench/bolster the current Labour lead, if the government can't sell further cuts and tax rises to the electorate.

[Earthling]

Problem is that the hard choices follow an economic meltdown caused by the Conservatives themself.

In 2010 they could (and indeed did) blame Labour. This time around, it's all on them.

[parochial boy]

I guess there's a chance the public will reward the Conservatives for "taking the hard choices" as they've repeatedly told us was necessary.

That's a bit like if someone ran over your pet dog then took it the vet to be put down and then you gave them credit for "taking the hard choice" for you in your place.

[Torrain]

I guess there's a chance the public will reward the Conservatives for "taking the hard choices" as they've repeatedly told us was necessary.

That's a bit like if someone ran over your pet dog then took it the vet to be put down and then you gave them credit for "taking the hard choice" for you in your place.

Yeah - it's not exactly the most likely outcome (a Major-style death-spiral feels more likely at the minute), but this is UK politics, stranger things routinely happen. Johnson managed to spin his prorogation of Parliament, and expelling the moderate wing of his party as "pro-Brexit patriotism", and recovered in time win the election. Jeremy Corbyn stayed leader of his party for another 4 years after 80% of his MPs voted no-confidence in him. It's a strange time...

[Pericles]

I expect we already know this, but this article from the Institute for Government is good in-depth look at Hunt's promise to make 'efficiency savings'. It shows how there are very few options to reduce spending, because public services have very little 'fat to trim' after the 2010s austerity. Practically, he is going to have a hideously difficult time. The UK really shouldn't be considering a 50-50 split for austerity but more like all of the 'fiscal hole' being filled by tax increases and public services being maintained at their current levels. That is a non-starter with the Tories, obviously. I can't see the public accepting the cuts, but the underfunding will be so bad that it is unlikely to be fully fixed quickly (if at all) by the upcoming Labour governmet.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So it was never more than five until recently? Slightly surprising if so.

It would be interesting to know the record number in, say, Australia (which had a few PMs with even shorter tenures than Liz "Jane Grey" Truss)

There's only been 6 or 7 living ex-PMs for the last decade in Aus. You'd really think there'd be more but before having 7 PMs in last 15 years we had 4 PMs in 32 years.

[Lechasseur]

From left to right, the people in the photo I believe are:

Fraser, Gillard, Hawke, Abbott, Howard, Rudd and Keating

Does this sound correct?

[CumbrianLefty]

Fraser died less than a year after Whitlam, so its quite possible the latter was also alive when this photo was taken (even if, given his age, not able to actually attend)

[Хahar 🤔]

I did not know that Malcolm Fraser was 6'4". So was Gough Whitlam, apparently!

[YL]

Also, "Middlesbrough and Thornaby East" has six times as many electors in Middlesbrough as it does in Thornaby. Another pointless 'X and X' name.

I think this is one of those examples where they change the name as a sop to a community which hasn't got what it wanted otherwise: the Commission couldn't find a way of removing the split of Thornaby so they try to mollify it by mentioning it in one of the names.

I think that the trend towards longer names often reflects a local preference to have their community represented in the name, and indeed in some cases the local parties use a longer name than the official one, presumably for that reason.  Two examples are "Corby & East Northamptonshire" and "Hove & Portslade", both of which are used locally (including in their MPs' Twitter profiles) and are now proposed to be adopted officially.

Another reason for longer names arising in this review is that the 5% rule sometimes results in messier constituencies which just can't be well described by a short name.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Fraser died less than a year after Whitlam, so its quite possible the latter was also alive when this photo was taken (even if, given his age, not able to actually attend)

Nope, this photo was taken at Whitlam’s memorial service. Only reason they managed to assemble them together.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1592820403676020737
Worth noting that Sunak’s defence of Raab for much of the last week was that there were no “formal complaints” against him.

Not sure which is worse here - Sunak keeping a Justice Secretary under formal investigation (while trying to claim his is a “government built on integrity”), or Sunak having to fire another minister (his deputy PM, no less!) within weeks of taking office.

Edit: Sunak is still in Bali, so PMQs today is expected to be a Raab-Rayner matchup. I expect we’ll get six “I can’t comment on that investigation” answers from Raab.

[CumbrianLefty]

Edit: Sunak is still in Bali, so PMQs today is expected to be a Raab-Rayner matchup

Heh, superb timing.

[TheTide]

HRH the Prince of Wales presented the England team with the squad numbers for the World Cup yesterday and made the comments along the lines of how the whole country was rooting for them. Unless he's doing the same thing with the Wales team (who are not only also in the World Cup but in England's group) this seems a bit odd.

[Conservatopia]

HRH the Prince of Wales presented the England team with the squad numbers for the World Cup yesterday and made the comments along the lines of how the whole country was rooting for them. Unless he's doing the same thing with the Wales team (who are not only also in the World Cup but in England's group) this seems a bit odd.

He's addressed this in a rather interesting way. Or at least, I find it interesting because I am in a similar situation, as an Englishman who was born and brought up in Wales.

He says that he has supported England (and chaired the FA) for a long time and thus to drop them suddenly would not be right.

However, he goes on to say that he has always supported Wales over England in the rugby.

This is smart actually: Wales are awful at football, but regularly defeat the girly-men from the other nations in the rugby. 

[Silent Hunter]

He was Prince William of Wales from birth until his marriage - "Wales" was the name he served under in the Armed Forces. He became the Duke of Cambridge on his marriage and stayed that until the Queen died, spending a day as the Duke of Cornwall and Cambridge (as Cornwall is automatically bestowed on the eldest son of the monarch) before becoming Prince of Wales.

[Silent Hunter]

See a lot of the cuts won't actually happen until after the next election.

[Torrain]

Aberdeen South MP Stephen Flynn has reportedly lauched a leadership challenge against SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford.

Flynn has apparently been on maneuveurs for a while, but has been able to weaponise Blackford's defence of sex-pest and expelled SNP MP Patrick Grady to whip supporters against Blackford. It's understood that both Blackford and Flynn have been meeting with MPs for weeks to gauge support, but Flynn has finally got the numbers to launch a credible challenge.

Blackford is scheduled to appear on BBC Question Time this evening, it's now unclear whether he will be attending.

The context here is Blackford's vocal defence of Glasgow MP Patrick Grady, who was accused of sexual harassment, and who Blackford demanded his MPs defend, in direct violation of his earlier "zero-tolerance" stance after the 2017 pestminster scandal. In one instance, Blackford reportedly summoned Grady's victim (an SNP volunteer) to his office, *not telling the victim that Grady would be present*, and tried to use the shock of this surprise confrontation to make the victim accept Grady's apology. In the end, Grady had to resign from the party himself, after pressure grew too strong.

Edit: Flynn has, as of 18.40, denied that he's standing against Blackford

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting timing on that , since the court decision pertaining to potential referendums is coming soon.

[Torrain]

Several interesting factors in the Blackford story if it's proven to be accurate:

First, there's Aberdeen South. A very marginal seat, it's been held by three parties (Tory, Labour, SNP) in the past 7 years, and has flipped between parties at 6 of the last 9 elections, only consistently being held by New Labour for more than a single term in the past 30 years. If elected leader, Flynn will have to balance national campaigning with local concerns, at risk of facing the same fate as Angus Robertson, Jim Murrphy and Jo Swinson. Scottish voters are not forgiving to party leaders, local or national...

Next, an SNP leadership election gives us an opportunity to see how the different factions of the party (broadly generalised as "independence soon" vs "independence now") are balanced, and may act as a prelude for the much bigger election to come - replacing Sturgeon as party leader in the next few years.

Lastly, the SNP leader has an elevated constitutional role, as leader of the third-largest party, with a mandated three questions at PMQs, and right of response to Commons announcments by the PM. Blackford's major strength has been his social-media ready clips (very Dennis Skinner), so replacing him with a less charismatic (but arguably more detail-focused) MP like Flynn could alter the dynamics, and optics for his party. The Tory arguments over removing Johnson (the moral case for removing a scandal-hit leader, versus concerns about losing a dynamic leader and replacing them with a less camera-ready figure) could find an odd parallel here. 

[Blair]

There’s been some grumbling about Blackford for a while iirc.

[Lechasseur]

Interesting timing on that , since the court decision pertaining to potential referendums is coming soon.

What's the story about the court case on referendums ? I haven't Heard of it.

And what could the consequences be ?

[CumbrianLefty]

See a lot of the cuts won't actually happen until after the next election.

Usual suspects already going on about how this is a "clever trap" for the opposition.

(only if they go along with it, which Reeves didn't really show much sign of doing today)

[Blair]

Budget seems to have gone pretty badly based on overnight coverage and what I heard on the news.

It’s funny how parts of Westminster always seem to lavish praise on the day of the budget and then once they read it things fall apart.

It is partly tyranny of low expectations after the Truss one…

[Torrain]

There’s been some grumbling about Blackford for a while iirc.

The grandstanding has been a minor complaint for a while (based on conversations I’ve had with more nationalist-inclined friends), but defending Grady seems to have (rightly, in my view) opened up a real gap in Blackford’s credibility.