UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Torrain]

Andrew Bridgen has no confidence in Liz Truss - MP no.2 to go public. No real surprise though - he put in a letter against David Cameron, Theresa May, and two in against Boris Johnson. He's almost cartoonishly antagonistic at this point.

[Blair]

Hitler levels of delusion.

The by-election quote was telling; not only do they have no legal way of forcing a by-election by Mel Stride but it’s very likely they would lose- especially if they were trying to parachute visions for Gideon into the seat!

[Blair]

Andrew Bridgen has no confidence in Liz Truss - MP no.2 to go public. No real surprise though - he put in a letter against David Cameron, Theresa May, and two in against Boris Johnson. He's almost cartoonishly antagonistic at this point.

Didn’t he also withdraw one of his letters and make a big song and dance?

I much prefer the Labour method where you need to sign nomination papers; this secret ballot really lets Tory MPs enjoy themselves far too much. You can see the table rising by 6 inches every time these sort of plots happen.

[Conservatopia]

Here's how Truss can still win.

[Torrain]

Andrew Bridgen has no confidence in Liz Truss - MP no.2 to go public. No real surprise though - he put in a letter against David Cameron, Theresa May, and two in against Boris Johnson. He's almost cartoonishly antagonistic at this point.

Didn’t he also withdraw one of his letters and make a big song and dance?

Aye - he submitted a letter against Johnson during the early phases of partygate. He withdrew it during the early stages of the war in Ukraine, because of "national unity" or something - in March 2022.

When momentum built to remove Johnson later in the year, he made a fuss about submitting a new letter - in May 2022, less than 8 weeks after revoking his last one. Even amongst MPs, you get the sense that he loves getting the limelight for a few hours.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the Blue Collar Conservatives?

[Torrain]

No.3 over the top: Jamie Wallis - full letter sent to Truss can be found here.

[Blair]

But you can’t remove a leader when there’s a ground war in Europe!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What is the Blue Collar Conservatives?

A scam.

[omar04]

Lmao, Andrew Bridgen just said Truss should quit. That should be the final nail in the coffin.

[Blair]

It’s funnily enough actually too early for Boris to return- has only been over a month since he actually lost office and he needs a bit more time to launder his reputation.

The weird thing will be watching Mordaunt or Sunak becoming PM- there will be a lot of write ups about how professional they and how good they are (Mordaunt is for some reason beloved by some Tories for rather indignant commons performances that are a tad self righteous) but equally they’ll be facing the same economic headwinds, the same rebellious party and the same declining state of the public realm.

[YL]

No.3 over the top: Jamie Wallis - full letter sent to Truss can be found here.

It’s not exactly the most impressive collection of Tory MPs going public so far, is it?

[Torrain]

No.3 over the top: Jamie Wallis - full letter sent to Truss can be found here.

It’s not exactly the most impressive collection of Tory MPs going public so far, is it?

Aye - all three have a public scandal under their belt from the last year alone. Maybe it’s an attempt at an image overhaul? Blunt is retiring, so it definitely feels like his attempt at a last hurrah. Bridgen is a chronic backstabber, and I’m not sure why Wallis staked a claim to the moral high ground. 

[Cassius]

It’s funnily enough actually too early for Boris to return- has only been over a month since he actually lost office and he needs a bit more time to launder his reputation.

The weird thing will be watching Mordaunt or Sunak becoming PM- there will be a lot of write ups about how professional they and how good they are (Mordaunt is for some reason beloved by some Tories for rather indignant commons performances that are a tad self righteous) but equally they’ll be facing the same economic headwinds, the same rebellious party and the same declining state of the public realm.

Whilst all of these are true it would still be better to have a leader whose face doesn’t look like a loading screen before answering simple questions.

Mordaunt’s rise still baffles me though, given that she was apparently completely idle and useless in her ministerial roles in addition to having an ego the size of Gorbachev’s (without the accomplishments). Mind you, neither of those have recently been a barrier to elevation to high office within the Conservative party.

[Torrain]

Opinium modelling released in the Guardian this evening.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581768645239529472
It’s a detailed, seat by seat model indicating a 1997-level of anti-Tory tactical voting, that would see Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, and Jeremy Hunt, among others falling victim.

It also projects a bad night for the SNP - with Labour reclaiming significant territory in Scotland, and the Lib Dems pulling back into 3rd place, (which has implications for news coverage, electoral spending and weekly slots at PMQs, as well as the obvious optics of them sliding into 4th). Obvious disclaimer that attempting to predict Scottish seats is an imprecise form of alchemy (the BBC exit poll is typically a few seats off, more than nationally).

Full write-up here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/16/rees-mogg-coffey-and-hunt-would-lose-seats-in-election-poll-suggests

[icc]

Opinium modelling released in the Guardian this evening.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581768645239529472
It’s a detailed, seat by seat model indicating a 1997-level of anti-Tory tactical voting, that would see Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Therese Coffey, and Jeremy Hunt, among others falling victim.

It also projects a bad night for the SNP - with Labour reclaiming significant territory in Scotland, and the Lib Dems pulling back into 3rd place, (which has implications for news coverage, electoral spending and weekly slots at PMQs, as well as the obvious optics of them sliding into 4th). Obvious disclaimer that attempting to predict Scottish seats is an imprecise form of alchemy (the BBC exit poll is typically a few seats off, more than nationally).

Full write-up here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/16/rees-mogg-coffey-and-hunt-would-lose-seats-in-election-poll-suggests

Notable that this poll has a Labour lead of “just” 15%, when the recent polling average is closer to a lead of 23-24%.

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1581768645239529472

I don't think this is what that guy at the SNP conference wanted to mean when saying "Keir Starmer is just another Tony Blair."

[Pericles]

If Hunt does calm the markets, then I don't think there is any urgency to removing Truss anymore. Obviously she can't lead the Tories into the next election, but they have got just under two years to make a change. She is a liability but the brand damage was caused by the market crash, her staying on for a few months does not make much difference for the eventual next Prime Minister. The party could then take its time to think through its options so it doesn't make another rash decision. Individual leadership contenders would also benefit from a delay so they can improve their own positions for the eventual contest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ahaha the poll was carried out in September, so just after the Mini Budget of Doom but as the markets and the public were still digesting it and polls were showing Labour leads in the higher teens but creeping up.

[Torrain]

Ahaha the poll was carried out in September, so just after the Mini Budget of Doom but as the markets and the public were still digesting it and polls were showing Labour leads in the higher teens but creeping up.

Ah - so things are much worse for the gov.
To quote Brian: “Dear oh dear”.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ahaha the poll was carried out in September, so just after the Mini Budget of Doom but as the markets and the public were still digesting it and polls were showing Labour leads in the higher teens but creeping up.

Ah - so things are much worse for the gov.
To quote Brian: “Dear oh dear”.

Truly a Tilbury speech for the age of constitutional monarchy.

[Pulaski]

Nobody gives a quote like "anonymous Tory MP" does.

https://twitter.com/MrMichaelSpicer/status/1581028189979041792

OK, technically this is a parody, but at this point........

This is actually a good test for people; see how far they get into this before they realise it's parody. I got to "sea lion driving a segway into a bear trap factory."

When Truss goes there will surely have to be a general election called won't there?

[brucejoel99]

When Truss goes there will surely have to be a general election called won't there?

Depends on whether or not it's a general election or a general strike.

[Estrella]

An Irish headline from a decade and a half ago comes to mind.

[Joe Republic]

Well this can't be good:

A Hong Kong pro-democracy protester was pulled into Chinese consulate grounds in Manchester on Sunday and beaten up.

A BBC journalist on the scene filmed unidentified men coming out of the consulate and forcing a man inside the compound, before he escaped with the help of police and other demonstrators.

The protester told the BBC "they dragged me inside, they beat me up".

A consulate spokesperson said protesters had displayed an insulting portrait of China's president.

The Foreign Office said it was urgently seeking clarity on the incident.