UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[CumbrianLefty]

Half the stuff he says he's scrapping doesn't actually exist and hasn't been proposed.

But now Labour will have to deny that it will impose them.

And again, I can assure you this isn't how it is actually going down.

[Coldstream]

No one outside of right wing columnists who live in outer London cares. I’ve never had this issue come up anywhere that’s not Uxbridge.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Half the stuff he says he's scrapping doesn't actually exist and hasn't been proposed.

But now Labour will have to deny that it will impose them.

Green policies are the center-left's greatest weakness.

Sunak: i was going to introduce a meat tax, but then i decided not to because that would be woke

Public: you were going to introduce a meat tax?

Sunak: yes, we were going to - we were going to make it mental and it would have bankrupted your family. I changed my mind though because Liz truss made a speech.

[10 minutes later]

Listen you uneducated pleb!!!! I canceled the Sunak Meat Tax!!!!! I am a political genius!!!!!!

[Torrain]

There’s more - apparently the next step in Sunak’s plan to demonstrate “long-term thinking”. 
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1704938816224497789
For a fiscal conservative, he’s potentially wasting a ton of cash getting DofE officials to put together a new multi-year curriculum that Labour may well just bin on day 1.

If anything, this feels like a pet project (he sure does love the idea of teaching maths as long as possible) - one that he’s finally realised he won’t have a second term to complete, so he’s throwing it out there now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not necessarily a bad idea in the abstract, but there are a lot of expensive and disruptive changes you would have to make to begin implementing it, and that's if the education sector was in a good place at the moment. At a time when they're getting nowhere near meeting recruitment targets and about 1% of schools have roofs at risk of collapse, it's a non-starter.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why are people who (purport to) believe that we can ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2030 considered to be ‘moderates’.

Everyone consideres themselves as sensibles moderates.

And sometimes., the actual facts back that up

[TheTide]

Remember that Sunak is of the 2015 intake. As an MP, he's known little else but party infighting and leadership crises. He's seen a change of leader/Prime Minister on average once every two years since he was first elected to Parliament, which is about the amount of time he will have been in office by the time of the next general election. I suspect his recent actions are done with the aim of propping up his position until the said general election, and perhaps also of giving the government some sense of policy direction (which has been lacking since at least 2016). Whether they will be successful in those is another matter.

[MABA 2020]

This tinkering around and announcing things that will never actually happen is so tiring, is it 2024 yet?

[Torrain]

Lisa Cameron, SNP MP for East Kilbride, may be deselected in favour of a local challenger. She’s now threatening to resign and trigger a by-election if she loses.

Depending on who you ask, this is revenge for criticising the Patrick Grady situation - (perhaps more plausibly), the result of Cameron taking socially conservative votes/positions on issues like abortion access in Northern Ireland, in line with her Free Kirk background (which nearly cost her selection in 2019, when there was far less time for this sort of thing).

Remain skeptical - but an SNP MP threatening to pull a Dorries feels notable, given the strength of party discipline until very recently - and the implicit suggestion about what would happen in said by-election. Particularly in the final stretch of the Rutherglen campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

This tinkering around and announcing things that will never actually happen is so tiring, is it 2024 yet?

Or in the case of HS2, saying something won't happen when it still ultimately might.

[Blair]

I’m still confused by the coverage with Sunak- his personal ratings have fallen, and the Conservatives remain 20% behind in the polls but the coverage keeps suggesting that it’s going to be close.

I don’t recall the same being said by the Conservatives in 1997 or Labour in 2010.

[JimJamUK]

It’s been confirmed that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats considered an electoral pact for the 2015 election. It didn’t come close to actually happening (to the Tories advantage it turned out), but that the 2 parties considered themselves close enough to not even stand against each other says something…

[oldtimer]

It’s been confirmed that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats considered an electoral pact for the 2015 election. It didn’t come close to actually happening (to the Tories advantage it turned out), but that the 2 parties considered themselves close enough to not even stand against each other says something…

I think there might have beeen an unofficial pact in Nick Clegg's seat.

[Devout Centrist]

I’m still confused by the coverage with Sunak- his personal ratings have fallen, and the Conservatives remain 20% behind in the polls but the coverage keeps suggesting that it’s going to be close.

I don’t recall the same being said by the Conservatives in 1997 or Labour in 2010.

Think quite a few pundits don't want to be embarrassed after predicting an eternal (or at least another 2-3 term) Conservative majority after 2019.

Also, my understanding is this crowd loves crowing about the potential for a HUNG PARLIAMENT every couple months.

[Torrain]

To follow up on that - there’s a number of pundits (from the Times lot, to Emily Maitlis) who have noticed that Labour need to reclaim more seats to win a majority of one, than the number Blair won from the Tories in 1997.

So that becomes the framing on a quiet news day, when they want a horse-race story - irrespective of polling, by-elections and local election results, etc. As Devout Centrist noted, it’s  an easy excuse for some hung Parliament chatter - and the go-to intro for a piece about the Lib Dems or SNP at Westminster (I think it’s now illegal to write an editorial about Ed Davey that doesn’t include the word *kingmaker*).

It’s either that, or “there’s no great enthusiasm for Keir Starmer, so Labour’s lead is soft”.

[YL]

It’s been confirmed that the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats considered an electoral pact for the 2015 election. It didn’t come close to actually happening (to the Tories advantage it turned out), but that the 2 parties considered themselves close enough to not even stand against each other says something…

I'm not at all convinced that either party would have been able to bring their membership, let alone their voting base, along with such a scheme. A lot of Lib Dems accepted the Coalition as the least bad option in the circumstances; that doesn't mean that they'd have accepted Clegg and Alexander driving them into an electoral pact with the Tories.

[TheTide]

To follow up on that - there’s a number of pundits (from the Times lot, to Emily Maitlis) who have noticed that Labour need to reclaim more seats to win a majority of one, than the number Blair won from the Tories in 1997.

So that becomes the framing on a quiet news day, when they want a horse-race story - irrespective of polling, by-elections and local election results, etc. As Devout Centrist noted, it’s  an easy excuse for some hung Parliament chatter - and the go-to intro for a piece about the Lib Dems or SNP at Westminster (I think it’s now illegal to write an editorial about Ed Davey that doesn’t include the word *kingmaker*).

It’s either that, or “there’s no great enthusiasm for Keir Starmer, so Labour’s lead is soft”.

It would be interesting to know what the private views of those in the Tory hierarchy are regarding what the election result might be. Michael Heseltine, then Deputy PM, was said to have predicted a Tory majority of 40 just prior to the 1997 election.

[JimJamUK]

The government is laying the groundwork to scrap the Manchester leg of Hs2. They’ve already scrapped the Leeds leg, nevermind the once speculated legs to Newcastle and Edinburgh. All that’s left is the London-Birmingham leg, and even that might not be done properly.

Some right wingers and NIMBYs will be happy, but it does suggest the government is unwilling to actually do ‘levelling up’ in anything more than a rhetorical sense.

[Torrain]

The HS2 thing feels like a real mess.  Frustrating as a frequent passenger. And from Sunak's perspective, it's odd to go "after all these years of Tory government, things have become so bad that we've got to cancel all our own flagship policies, from transport to the environment. That's why you should support us next year."

Sure, he can sell that to a subset of voters on the right - but feels toxic for swing voters.

The whole rollout feels frantic. In the past week alone we've had Net Zero rollback, A-level abolition, New Zealand-style smoking bans and inheritance tax reform/abolition. Per Swinford at the Times, Sunak returned from holiday determined to launch them immediately so he can cram them all into a 40 minute conference speech next month.

I'm moving towards the idea that we'll end up at the polls in spring rather than autumn next year (after the NHS recovers from the winter, but before the weather improves enough for the small boats get going in earnest, so he can claim to have "stopped" them) - and the degree of importance placed on this conference is hardening that view.

[CumbrianLefty]

To follow up on that - there’s a number of pundits (from the Times lot, to Emily Maitlis) who have noticed that Labour need to reclaim more seats to win a majority of one, than the number Blair won from the Tories in 1997.

So that becomes the framing on a quiet news day, when they want a horse-race story - irrespective of polling, by-elections and local election results, etc. As Devout Centrist noted, it’s  an easy excuse for some hung Parliament chatter - and the go-to intro for a piece about the Lib Dems or SNP at Westminster (I think it’s now illegal to write an editorial about Ed Davey that doesn’t include the word *kingmaker*).

It’s either that, or “there’s no great enthusiasm for Keir Starmer, so Labour’s lead is soft”.

It would be interesting to know what the private views of those in the Tory hierarchy are regarding what the election result might be. Michael Heseltine, then Deputy PM, was said to have predicted a Tory majority of 40 just prior to the 1997 election.

I'm sure I remember Hezza sayng a bit later he privately knew it was baloney, and was perfectly aware that the Tories were headed for a big defeat.

But how else to motivate at least some of the troops? You have to suspend disbelief a bit in elections where it is pretty obvious that you are going to lose.

There were a few people - more in their media supporters than the party, admittedly - who really did think the Tories might pull it off again, however. They claimed stuff like Labour's poll lead being "soft" and Blair actually being widely disliked by the voters (sound familiar, any of this?)

[Torrain]

It would be interesting to know what the private views of those in the Tory hierarchy are regarding what the election result might be. Michael Heseltine, then Deputy PM, was said to have predicted a Tory majority of 40 just prior to the 1997 election.

I'd put money on Gove clearing out his desk before the exit poll is released.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm moving towards the idea that we'll end up at the polls in spring rather than autumn next year (after the NHS recovers from the winter, but before the weather improves enough for the small boats get going in earnest, so he can claim to have "stopped" them) - and the degree of importance placed on this conference is hardening that view.

I think the Tories have now decided they would like an election next May, if they can get one.

It remains far from certain they will be in good enough a state for this, however - so I expect them to remain pretty cagey about it in public.

It is sometimes claimed that they should go then to "minimise councillor losses", but if it is a blowout the Tories are going to suffer big defeats there regardless - in 1997 they were defending an already bad set of results in 1993, whereas this time the base is 2021 (their best year of recent times)

[TheTide]

To follow up on that - there’s a number of pundits (from the Times lot, to Emily Maitlis) who have noticed that Labour need to reclaim more seats to win a majority of one, than the number Blair won from the Tories in 1997.

So that becomes the framing on a quiet news day, when they want a horse-race story - irrespective of polling, by-elections and local election results, etc. As Devout Centrist noted, it’s  an easy excuse for some hung Parliament chatter - and the go-to intro for a piece about the Lib Dems or SNP at Westminster (I think it’s now illegal to write an editorial about Ed Davey that doesn’t include the word *kingmaker*).

It’s either that, or “there’s no great enthusiasm for Keir Starmer, so Labour’s lead is soft”.

It would be interesting to know what the private views of those in the Tory hierarchy are regarding what the election result might be. Michael Heseltine, then Deputy PM, was said to have predicted a Tory majority of 40 just prior to the 1997 election.

I'm sure I remember Hezza sayng a bit later he privately knew it was baloney, and was perfectly aware that the Tories were headed for a big defeat.

But how else to motivate at least some of the troops? You have to suspend disbelief a bit in elections where it is pretty obvious that you are going to lose.

There were a few people - more in their media supporters than the party, admittedly - who really did think the Tories might pull it off again, however. They claimed stuff like Labour's poll lead being "soft" and Blair actually being widely disliked by the voters (sound familiar, any of this?)

The odd thing is that it continued to some extent after the exit poll results. Michael Portillo was unwilling to acknowledge Labour's victory at the start of the night when he was interviewed by Paxman. Contrast this with John McDonnell's interview with Andrew Neil on election night 2019. He pretty much verbally acknowledged that Labour had suffered a catastrophic defeat, and it was certainly evident in his body language.

[afleitch]

The HS2 thing feels like a real mess.  Frustrating as a frequent passenger. And from Sunak's perspective, it's odd to go "after all these years of Tory government, things have become so bad that we've got to cancel all our own flagship policies, from transport to the environment. That's why you should support us next year."

As a bit of nerd on this matter, HS2 was never viable the moment they axed the Golborne link to allow trains to connect to the West Coast Mainline. Practically speaking, journey times north of Manchester end up effectively the same, particularly factoring in potential additional connections.

So they are faced with building the bit through the shires that has the most baked in opposition after years of axing northern branches that would have proven relatively popular.

[Blair]

The funny thing is that while people are still nervous about polling in UK elections (and we have a lot of polls getting thrown into the average that are errrr unique!) I believe the polling is better than it was in 1997- I'm not sure if Blair was leading Major on the economy & if the Labour were leading on the economy.

The fact that even the Mail in their editorial could only call Starmer 'boring' shows the problem the Tories have...