NY GOV (Insider Advantage/Trafalgar): Hochul 48 - Zeldon 43

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566133771908382723

[President Johnson]

It's beyond me how Trafalgar is relatively accurate in the Midwest and total trash in other states, especially when they poll safe races.

Hochul is going to score an easy victory here. She's almost certainly win by a 15-20 point margin.

[Lief 🗽]

Almost as if Trafalgar’s polls are literally all just made up.

[tagimaucia]

How dumb do you have to be at this point to believe that Trafalgar conducts actual polls?

[Xing]

NY-GOV and WA-SEN vote similarly to AZ-SEN? Definitely checks out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trafalgar would poll California and somehow produce a result that had Newsom winning by mere single digits.

[wesmoorenerd]

Yeah Trafalgar is trash LMAO

they fudged results in favor of Republicans in the midwest in 2020 that happened to coincidentally get it right and now everyone takes them as gospel

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Yeah Trafalgar is trash LMAO

they fudged results in favor of Republicans in the midwest in 2020 that happened to coincidentally get it right and now everyone takes them as gospel

Their Virginia and NJ polls were pretty solid too.

[kwabbit]

It's beyond me how Trafalgar is relatively accurate in the Midwest and total trash in other states, especially when they poll safe races.

Hochul is going to score an easy victory here. She's almost certainly win by a 15-20 point margin.

Trafalgar has sometimes suggested that they apply ad hoc adjustments to account for hard to reach conservative voters. They're essentially adjusting the results to what they want. Trafalgar seems allergic to publishing a blowout result in any state, so they just adjust extra if their sample was Hochul +20 raw.

[President Johnson]

And just something else: Larry Sharpe hasn't even qualified for the general election ballot. Why is he even polled?

[OSR stands with Israel]

According to Traflagar , Fetterman will win by more than Murray and Houchal

[Morning in Atlas]

Shame that this isn't true and they won't abandon her like she did Walton, but hey.

[2016]

OSR,
Trafalgar Pollster Robert Cahaly has responded on Twitter about the surprising Poll Results out of NY, WA and lesser extend GA

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1566145224392548355

The Student Loan sh**t Package looks like is becoming a bigger Issue than even Democrats won't admit.

Unsurprisingly Biden did not mention it in his MAGA Republican Darth Vader Speech.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh you’ve got to be kidding me. Remind me again why 538 thinks they’re an A- rated pollster?

[2016]

Oh you’ve got to be kidding me. Remind me again why 538 thinks they’re an A- rated pollster?

We'll see. The Student Loan sh**t was supposed to be a big GAIN for Democrats. That's not showing in the Polls. Upstate New York still has huge Numbers among Working Class Whites and they hate this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hochul is fine

[kwabbit]

Oh you’ve got to be kidding me. Remind me again why 538 thinks they’re an A- rated pollster?

538 only uses the polls from the final 3 weeks, so this crap won’t count towards the rating. Like it or not, their record has been good during the final time period, even though they’re sketchy af.

[Burke Bro]

This race was never safe for democrats, but it’s unlikely Hochul’s margin of victory is this small. Starting to think analysts were pressured to accept trafalgar as a legitimate polling company to compensate for other polls having a democratic bias after 2016/20 even though current and past evidence indicates trafalgar straight up fabricates their data.

[ꙮ]

If you believe that this poll is at all indicative of the current state of this race, you're insane.

Also lol at the supposedly respectable Trafalgar Polling including a candidate who isn't on the ballot in the poll. A+ work guys.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And just something else: Larry Sharpe hasn't even qualified for the general election ballot. Why is he even polled?

Didnt you say Traggy was A plus because they had Vance leading by 5 yeah it's different now that Hochul is close to Zeldin, news flash Al Sharpton said without Cuomo it's gonna get tight, I don't live in NY I can care less if she wins or loses

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hochul +5
Barnes +3
Fetterman +5
Murray +3
LOL

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, this is getting ridiculous! Zeldin will be lucky to crack 40%.

I really want all Trafalgar polls to be wildly inaccurate already so we can stop having to take them seriously.

[Duke of York]

This a laughable poll. Can they simply admit they are making up numbers to suit a narrative?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Imagine actually believing this

[2016]

Okay, this is getting ridiculous! Zeldin will be lucky to crack 40%.

I really want all Trafalgar polls to be wildly inaccurate already so we can stop having to take them seriously.

Zeldin will crack 40 %. Cuomo beat Marc Molinaro 58-36 and Zeldin is a much better Candidate who had to hold a Semi-Competitive Congressional District for the entirety of his Congressional Career.