NY GOV (Insider Advantage/Trafalgar): Hochul 48 - Zeldon 43

[2016]

There was a systematic Polling Error in 2020 and I don't care if it was intentionally or not. Biden never was ahead by 5-7 Points in Pennsylvania like most of the University Polling done by Monmouth, Q-Pac or Marist claimed. That was all done to supress Republican Voter Turnout. News Outlets claiming Biden had already won the Election 2 Weeks before Election Day because of the Polling.

Thank God we have the RealClearPolitics Average of the Polling.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Shame that this isn't true and they won't abandon her like she did Walton, but hey.

You're still pissed about a random nutjob loosing a mayoral election ?, LMAO.

[Minnesota Mike]

Trafalgar would poll California and somehow produce a result that had Newsom winning by mere single digits.

Funny you should say that, in 2021 they polled the CA Recall and found NO winning by only 8 points (NO won by 24 points). It wasn't just their last poll that was off, they had two other polls showing NO winning by 10 and 8 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trafalgar would poll California and somehow produce a result that had Newsom winning by mere single digits.

Funny you should say that, in 2021 they polled the CA Recall and found NO winning by only 8 points (NO won by 24 points). It wasn't just their last poll that was off, they had two other polls showing NO winning by 10 and 8 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html

Well, well...
If Admiral Nelson's cannons were as off as these polls, then the French and Spanish would have been certain winners at the Battle of Trafalgar.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trafalgar would poll California and somehow produce a result that had Newsom winning by mere single digits.

Funny you should say that, in 2021 they polled the CA Recall and found NO winning by only 8 points (NO won by 24 points). It wasn't just their last poll that was off, they had two other polls showing NO winning by 10 and 8 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html

I find it funny how nobody takes the Washington Post-ABC News polls after seriously they 17 points off in Wisconsin but Trafalgar became some sort of god of polling despite them being off in CA by 16 points.

[politicallefty]

Did they forget to poll NYC?

[Spectator]

This race was never safe democrats, but it’s unlikely Hochul’s margin of victory is this small. Maybe trafalgar really does make up their numbes.

If you really think this race was never Safe Democrat then you probably should reevaluate your rating system.

[Morning in Atlas]

Shame that this isn't true and they won't abandon her like she did Walton, but hey.

You're still pissed about a random nutjob loosing a mayoral election ?, LMAO.

Not about a random "nutjob" losing, moreso that a sitting governor blatantly chose not to endorse the Democratic nominee in her own city because she was a leftist.

This is the type of double standard we're dealing with here. Nina Turner tanked her political career because she wouldn't support Hillary Clinton. AOC lost a seat on Energy+Commerce because she endorsed Jessica Cisneros. If I ran for state rep, I wouldn't get past the primary once they find my profile here. Every leftist is expected to put their votes aside and back the incumbent and the Democratic nominee unflinchingly. If Bernie or AOC backed Niou's general run, they'd be roasted.

But the sitting governor throws a leftist nominee to the wolves and the "vote blue no matter who" crowd suddenly thinks it's not a big deal. Given her swift endorsement of Goldman, we know she was backing Brown.

I can go on and on and on about how #VBNMW isn't the case for normal Democrats. We have state and local parties endorsing Republican entryists over leftist incumbents. They feature voices in the party that refused to back Bernie in the general if he won. The revolt in the NEDP once Eastman won. The embrace of a Republican SoS candidate here, and his supporters still having a seat at the table in the NHDP. And now, the Buffalo mayor's race.

It's not about some inconsequential races. It's about how it's acceptable for the center to abandon a Democrat they don't like, and how "vote blue no matter who" is applied to only the left.

Don't blame me for enforcing the expectations the Democrats set for us. If you want to mouth off like you always do when you can't land a hit on my arguments you can go right ahead but that doesn't change that this is disqualifying for a Democratic official. But when you're a centrist and you think this behavior is okay because they disagree with you, you probably have a different mindset.

[Eraserhead]

Yawn. They need to try harder with their SHOCK POLLS.

(You could also look at actual election results from NY-19 and NY-23 to figure out this is garbage).

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I'm just a Sweet Tragsvestite from Tragsexual Tragsylvania

[Holmes]

Trafalgar making up numbers before hitting the "Submit" button.

https://twitter.com/MobiusVideos/status/1103413084658388992?s=20&t=UlXaQKEW2...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Partisan trends don't matter that much in Midterms as they do in Prez Elections that's why SUNUNU, Phil Scott are winning and Cheri Beasley and Ryan and Demings are tied but it's hard to believe NY or CA or IL will go red look what happened in 2021 VA went red and Cali went red in 2003 and NJ went red in 2009, all because of mainstream Rs and George Pataki was Gov of NY

Hochul probably underpolled Cuomo and wins by 7/10 pts

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, someone please do this math. This is the party breakdown of the poll:

D 53.6
R 27.5
No Party/Other 18.9

So somehow Hochulis only leading by 5 in a sample that is D+26. Sounds about right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LMAO, someone please do this math. This is the party breakdown of the poll:

D 53.6
R 27.5
No Party/Other 18.9

So somehow Hochulis only leading by 5 in a sample that is D+26. Sounds about right.

Obviously, there are utter boatloads of Democrats in Long Island and New York City who feel neglected by the all-Upstate Democratic ticket! They'd rather elect someone who didn't certify Biden's victory! Obviously.

[wbrocks67]

Also, doesn't InsiderAdvantage generally do its own polling? why are they teaming up with Traf?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yawn. They need to try harder with their SHOCK POLLS.

(You could also look at actual election results from NY-19 and NY-23 to figure out this is garbage).

Yeah! But those elections were held on primary night! Any other time and Molinaro would have won with NY-23 being a bigger blowout!

[Duke of York]

LMAO, someone please do this math. This is the party breakdown of the poll:

D 53.6
R 27.5
No Party/Other 18.9

So somehow Hochulis only leading by 5 in a sample that is D+26. Sounds about right.

Yet another example of how Trafalgar makes up numbers. They just happened to get it right in the last presidential.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, someone please do this math. This is the party breakdown of the poll:

D 53.6
R 27.5
No Party/Other 18.9

So somehow Hochulis only leading by 5 in a sample that is D+26. Sounds about right.

Yet another example of how Trafalgar makes up numbers. They just happened to get it right in the last presidential.

Well and the thing is, most everyone knew MI, WI, AZ, GA, PA would not be blowouts and all be very close. So it's very easy for Traf to give either Biden or Trump a +1 or +2 lead and say "hey, we got it right!". Yeah, anybody would've gotten it right by making it close since we *knew* 98% chance those races would all be within 1-2 pts

[MT Treasurer]

Well and the thing is, most everyone knew MI, WI, AZ, GA, PA would not be blowouts and all be very close. So it's very easy for Traf to give either Biden or Trump a +1 or +2 lead and say "hey, we got it right!". Yeah, anybody would've gotten it right by making it close since we *knew* 98% chance those races would all be within 1-2 pts

Actually, few people expected MI, WI, and PA to be within 1-2 points (and I’m pretty sure you didn’t expect them to be close, either). Even AZ was thought to be leaning toward Biden.

Then again, you already knew this.

[wbrocks67]

Well and the thing is, most everyone knew MI, WI, AZ, GA, PA would not be blowouts and all be very close. So it's very easy for Traf to give either Biden or Trump a +1 or +2 lead and say "hey, we got it right!". Yeah, anybody would've gotten it right by making it close since we *knew* 98% chance those races would all be within 1-2 pts

Actually, few people expected MI, WI, and PA to be within 1-2 points (and I’m pretty sure you didn’t expect them to be close, either). Even AZ was thought to be leaning toward Biden.

Then again, you already knew this.

Even if I didn't personally expect it, it's not hard to believe though that in the end they would be. What I'm saying is that Trafalgar just made the assumption that they likely would, and got lucky.

[Calthrina950]

I wouldn't be surprised if Zeldin cleared the 40% mark. Astorino managed to get over that mark against Cuomo in 2014. But I doubt the final margin will be this close. As of now, I'm assuming Hochul will win by ~15-20%, only slightly worse than Cuomo's winning margin in 2018. A result of ~59-41% or 58-42%, or something like that, wouldn't surprise me.

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that InsiderAdvantage just put out a poll where they got a GCB of D+1 nationally. Poll taken 9/1.

This Traf/IA poll was taken 8/31-9/1.

So IA is trying to say that on the same day(s), the GCB nationally was D+1 but Hochul is only up by 5 in New York.

[President Johnson]

I wouldn't be surprised if Zeldin cleared the 40% mark. Astorino managed to get over that mark against Cuomo in 2014. But I doubt the final margin will be this close. As of now, I'm assuming Hochul will win by ~15-20%, only slightly worse than Cuomo's winning margin in 2018. A result of ~59-41% or 58-42%, or something like that, wouldn't surprise me.

With most third parties taken off the ballot, a result like 58-41% is actually what I expect. Worst case for Hochul would be something like 56-43% and best case around 62-37%.

[Duke of York]

I wouldn't be surprised if Zeldin cleared the 40% mark. Astorino managed to get over that mark against Cuomo in 2014. But I doubt the final margin will be this close. As of now, I'm assuming Hochul will win by ~15-20%, only slightly worse than Cuomo's winning margin in 2018. A result of ~59-41% or 58-42%, or something like that, wouldn't surprise me.

With most third parties taken off the ballot, a result like 58-41% is actually what I expect. Worst case for Hochul would be something like 56-43% and best case around 62-37%.

I think this is reasonable. I don't see Zeldin getting any higher than 43 percent. I expect Hochul to get close to 60. Going over that will depend on how well she does upstate.