Effect of Biden's speech on the midterms

[Tekken_Guy]

What will be the effect of Biden's speech on the midterms?

[Xing]

Literally everything that happens between now and November 8th will help Republicans in the midterms, obviously.

[Ferguson97]

Absolutely nothing. If you liked the speech, you were already voting for Dems. If you didn't like the speech, you were already voting GOP.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Literally everything that happens between now and November 8th will help Republicans in the midterms, obviously.

This but ironically.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly speeches such as this usually have like no impact unless there's some obvious gaffe in it which I haven't see so far (i.e. "You Ain't Black")

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Literally everything that happens between now and November 8th will help Republicans in the midterms, obviously.

This but ironically.

I feel like it was intended to be ironic

[wbrocks67]

Honestly just kind of reinforces what we've seen - this is going to be a 2 president midterm, with the focus nearly just as much on Trump as it is on Biden. And that is mostly due to Trumps own fault.

[MT Treasurer]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

Apparently they’re not showing up in all those special elections, though! Nor did they show up in the same numbers as Democrats in the two GA runoffs in 2021, when Senate control was at stake.

Don’t think your claim is accurate at all.

To be fair, WCW probably cant get off work for a non November election

[2016]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

Apparently they’re not showing up in all those special elections, though! Nor did they show up in the same numbers as Democrats in the two GA runoffs in 2021, when Senate control was at stake.

Don’t think your claim is accurate at all.

THIS!

Republicans had a Turnout Problem in those Special Elections and they needed something to get them going.

[Orser67]

Probably no effect, like 99.9% of speeches in recent history

[SnowLabrador]

It helps the Republicans by giving them something new to hammer on, but not very much.

[Koharu]

No effect. It's early September.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

Apparently they’re not showing up in all those special elections, though! Nor did they show up in the same numbers as Democrats in the two GA runoffs in 2021, when Senate control was at stake.

Don’t think your claim is accurate at all.

THIS!

Republicans had a Turnout Problem in those Special Elections and they needed something to get them going.

Their voters were always going to show up in November.

[MT Treasurer]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

Apparently they’re not showing up in all those special elections, though! Nor did they show up in the same numbers as Democrats in the two GA runoffs in 2021, when Senate control was at stake.

Don’t think your claim is accurate at all.

THIS!

Republicans had a Turnout Problem in those Special Elections and they needed something to get them going.

Their voters were always going to show up in November.

Again (you didn’t address my point)... why is Republican turnout lagging behind Democratic turnout in special elections if they "were always going to show up" or always energized?

[windjammer]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

Apparently they’re not showing up in all those special elections, though! Nor did they show up in the same numbers as Democrats in the two GA runoffs in 2021, when Senate control was at stake.

Don’t think your claim is accurate at all.

THIS!

Republicans had a Turnout Problem in those Special Elections and they needed something to get them going.

Their voters were always going to show up in November.

Again (you didn’t address my point)... why is Republican turnout lagging behind Democratic turnout in special elections if they "were always going to show up" or always energized?

This is my personal view on this issue. Now that college whites are voting en masse for the dems. The lower turnout is, better it is for the dems.


But the question is, will midterms turnout give the democrats a turnout advantage? I don't know

[Minnesota Mike]

Zero effect, nobody who had not already made up their mind watched it. Hell I'm a political nerd and I watched college football instead.

I do find it humorous that those calling all Democrats pedo-groomers who love criminals and hate America now need a fainting couch because Biden was mean to them. What happened to F*** your feelings?

[Progressive Pessimist]

No effect. This speech will be forgotten about by the beginning of next week and the GOP will have moved on to b****ing about something else. This will not have the lasting impact of "basket of deplorables," and even if it did, the Republican base was already going to turn out and them being more angry than they usually are doesn't somehow make their votes count twice or anything.

It did set the stakes for these midterms and serve as a decent rallying cry for Democrats though. But it won't be much of a direct influence on any Democratic base voters. They already knew this.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bold of Democrats to turn this into a Biden-v.-Trump referendum when (a) Trump's base has notoriously lower turnout (esp. compared to Democratic base voters) in non-presidential years and this risks activating them in a year in which Democrats can’t afford a surge in Republican turnout, and (b) Trump is leading Biden in most swing state polls (even in the PA-Emerson poll which had Oz/Shapiro leading by 4 and 3, respectively, for instance, Trump was ahead by 5).

Yes, it’s smart in the sense that it distracts Republicans from winning issues like inflation, crime, wokeism, etc., but Republicans don’t need to win a single state/district nearly as blue as VA to win the House or Senate, so they could win even with the Trump instead of the Youngkin model in a more Republican environment than 2020.

It’s a Democratic midterm. Trump’s base was always going to show up. Just like the Democratic base was fired up for 2018 from day one.

Apparently they’re not showing up in all those special elections, though! Nor did they show up in the same numbers as Democrats in the two GA runoffs in 2021, when Senate control was at stake.

Don’t think your claim is accurate at all.

THIS!

Republicans had a Turnout Problem in those Special Elections and they needed something to get them going.

Their voters were always going to show up in November.

Again (you didn’t address my point)... why is Republican turnout lagging behind Democratic turnout in special elections if they "were always going to show up" or always energized?

These "low-propensity" voters may not care about a random special election that seems like a foregone conclusion, but they will be there for the big one.

[Nyvin]

No real effect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No real effect.

It will Drive up Blk and Brown and female Turnout because why Maga Rs have blocked Voting Rights which banned soft money and Gerrymandering Districts, Blk and Brown remember what Sinema did she blocked Voting Rights due to preserving the Filibuster, that's why Gallego is gonna challenge Sinema If Ds lose the H in 24, the only way Sinema survives she better hope D's keep the H in 22