2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[Gracile]

Fun fact: Chicago gained population as of the 2020 census

I doubt the 2020 census was accurate given the chaotic circumstances at that time.

So I'll wait for the 2030 census to see.

The Census Bureau actually released revised population numbers for the 2020 Census that showed IL on the whole gained population, so if anything, Chicago being undercounted is more likely.

The idea that the 2020 census was somehow systematically a failure isn’t true. The census bureau’s “autopsy” estimated error similar to 2010

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2020-census-estimates-of-undercount-and-overcount.html

I never said it was a failure. I was merely trying to refute the point that the Census overestimated Chicago's population when official figures show that the opposite is possible.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Here's an interactive map of Round 2 (this one is better than others because the person running it is updating as mail votes come in):

https://election-night-map.web.app/Illinois/2023-Chicago-Mayoral/

The contrast between the IL Medical District + Univ. of Illinois Chicago precincts and the Chinatown precincts is striking. Johnson won 70-80% in the former, Vallas won 70-85% in the latter.

The blob of strong Vallas precincts near the pier seems to correspond to the touristy part of the city with all the skyscrapers and Instagram tags. While Little India near the suburb of Lincolnwood goes from Tilt Johnson-light blue in the east to Titanium Vallas-dark red in the west.

[libertpaulian]

Oh goodie. Effectively another 4 years of the Lori Lightfoot path to nowhere. Can’t wait.

It's really shocking and odd to me that so many Democratic posters in this thread would rather have a quasi-Republican as mayor than Johnson. Vallas - again - basically destroyed numerous public school systems, crapped all over how many Dem officials, and basically tried to run an antiquated 2002 "tough on crime" ploy this entire campaign. I don't get why any Dem sees anything positive in him.

Vallas was essentially the lesser of two evils.

It was a choice between Manchin and Sinema rolled into a Midwestern white ethnic Baby Boomer's body, or your typical far-left activist with the raised fist.

[warandwar]

Oh goodie. Effectively another 4 years of the Lori Lightfoot path to nowhere. Can’t wait.

It's really shocking and odd to me that so many Democratic posters in this thread would rather have a quasi-Republican as mayor than Johnson. Vallas - again - basically destroyed numerous public school systems, crapped all over how many Dem officials, and basically tried to run an antiquated 2002 "tough on crime" ploy this entire campaign. I don't get why any Dem sees anything positive in him.

Vallas was essentially the lesser of two evils.

It was a choice between Manchin and Sinema rolled into a Midwestern white ethnic Baby Boomer's body, or your typical far-left activist with the raised fist.

I think the majority of folks in Chicago saw it as a race between a black teacher and a white guy who closed down schools. Not surprising who won.

[wbrocks67]

Oh goodie. Effectively another 4 years of the Lori Lightfoot path to nowhere. Can’t wait.

It's really shocking and odd to me that so many Democratic posters in this thread would rather have a quasi-Republican as mayor than Johnson. Vallas - again - basically destroyed numerous public school systems, crapped all over how many Dem officials, and basically tried to run an antiquated 2002 "tough on crime" ploy this entire campaign. I don't get why any Dem sees anything positive in him.

Vallas was essentially the lesser of two evils.

It was a choice between Manchin and Sinema rolled into a Midwestern white ethnic Baby Boomer's body, or your typical far-left activist with the raised fist.

Uh no, Vallas is clearly worse than Manchin or Sinema. His entire campaign was straight out of the GOP playbook and Manchin/Sinema have never trashed as many Democrats as Vallas did. He was clearly aligned with the conservative side recently.

This is essentially my take as well (outside of needing them to be so "moderate")

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1643643303009583104

[indietraveler]

I stated this during the first round but I'm disappointed these were our options. I went back and forth, and ended up voting for Vallas. Given how close this was he may have lost this himself with his past comments that were featured on several ads.

[wbrocks67]

I stated this during the first round but I'm disappointed these were our options. I went back and forth, and ended up voting for Vallas. Given how close this was he may have lost this himself with his past comments that were featured on several ads.

Yeah, I mean what was he thinking even trashing Obama? Running in Chicago of all places?!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let me give you a history Obama was close to Daley they call it the Daley machine, Harold Washington died and Daley took over from 1987 -2010 Daley retire due to death of his wife Blago was close to Daley but he got impeached and Roland Burris, Obama and Blago and Quinn and Lisa Madigan, Pritzker and Biden were all tied to Daley, Emanuel took over for Daley but failed as mayor so the blk wing separated itself from the white wing since Obama and Daley weren't in office anymore

Jesse Jackson Jr was supposed to he Sen to replace Obama and Lisa Madigan wanted it but Tammy Duckworth went for it

[indietraveler]

I stated this during the first round but I'm disappointed these were our options. I went back and forth, and ended up voting for Vallas. Given how close this was he may have lost this himself with his past comments that were featured on several ads.

Yeah, I mean what was he thinking even trashing Obama? Running in Chicago of all places?!

Exactly, and the fact that there are multiple instances of him on tape saying this type of stuff. Weather he meant it or not doesn't really matter. When you're on record saying stuff like that it's not going to take much for someone who might be on the fence to vote against you or sit out. Especially an urban city like Chicago.

[Death of a Salesman]

By recent standards, this was very racially polarized, but it's still not even close to the elections of the Harold Washington era.

In 1983, Harold Washington got 31,095 votes in the 8th ward, and Bernie Epton got 457, a ratio of 68.1:1. 
In the 41st ward, Washington got 2,380 votes, and Epton got 32,725, a ratio of 13.75:1.
Multiply these two together, and we have our measure of racial polarization (the 8th is monolithically black, the 41st is overwhelmingly white). For 1983, we get a value of 936.

For the following elections, we have
1987: 1472
1989: 1401
1991: 354
1995: 56
1999: 25.6
2003: 4.4
2007: 4.6
2011: 7.7
2015: 1.3
2019: 3.6
2023: 28.3

The highest since 1995, yes. But evaluated this way, it becomes pretty obvious that Chicago is still less tense than the census elections of the 1980s.

By way of a scale, the 2020 Presidential election in Chicago scored a 27.9, the US as a whole is about 15 on this metric. Mississippi is around 100, and Issaquena County, Mississippi is around 250 from Reagent's estimates.

[Oryxslayer]

By recent standards, this was very racially polarized, but it's still not even close to the elections of the Harold Washington era.

In 1983, Harold Washington got 31,095 votes in the 8th ward, and Bernie Epton got 457, a ratio of 68.1:1.  
In the 41st ward, Washington got 2,380 votes, and Epton got 32,725, a ratio of 13.75:1.
Multiply these two together, and we have our measure of racial polarization (the 8th is monolithically black, the 41st is overwhelmingly white). For 1983, we get a value of 936.

For the following elections, we have
1987: 1472
1989: 1401
1991: 354
1995: 56
1999: 25.6
2003: 4.4
2007: 4.6
2011: 7.7
2015: 1.3
2019: 3.6
2023: 28.3

The highest since 1995, yes. But evaluated this way, it becomes pretty obvious that Chicago is still less tense than the census elections of the 1980s.

By way of a scale, the 2020 Presidential election in Chicago scored a 27.9, the US as a whole is about 15 on this metric. Mississippi is around 100, and Issaquena County, Mississippi is around 250 from Reagent's estimates.

Good post. Here's what that looks like on a map (source), for those wondering. The colors reflecting the intensity of voter support in both the Black neighborhoods and the Vallas White ones are much less intense than decades ago, and that's ignoring how the Hispanic (formerly White) areas split down the middle. Vallas had black support thanks to the Wilson and Alderman endorsements, as well as Conservative/Safety motived voters. The cities white vote today is a lot more Liberal Democratic than it was in the late 20th century, so Johnson has support even outside of the Progressive parts of the North Side.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating how both local elections and international issues (eg see the French pension reform thread) reveal that a whole lot of red avatars are basically right-wingers who just happen to find the GOP a little too much for their taste.

Anyway, wonderful that Chicago will actually have a left-wing mayor. NYC confirmed worst of the big 3.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Good post. Here's what that looks like on a map (source), for those wondering. The colors reflecting the intensity of voter support in both the Black neighborhoods and the Vallas White ones are much less intense than decades ago, and that's ignoring how the Hispanic (formerly White) areas split down the middle. Vallas had black support thanks to the Wilson and Alderman endorsements, as well as Conservative/Safety motived voters. The cities white vote today is a lot more Liberal Democratic than it was in the late 20th century, so Johnson has support even outside of the Progressive parts of the North Side.

I know not all of the votes have been counted yet, but just look at that >50% decline in raw turnout over 40 years. Chicago’s population only decreased by ~10% between the 1980 and 2020 censuses.

[Oryxslayer]

Good post. Here's what that looks like on a map (source), for those wondering. The colors reflecting the intensity of voter support in both the Black neighborhoods and the Vallas White ones are much less intense than decades ago, and that's ignoring how the Hispanic (formerly White) areas split down the middle. Vallas had black support thanks to the Wilson and Alderman endorsements, as well as Conservative/Safety motived voters. The cities white vote today is a lot more Liberal Democratic than it was in the late 20th century, so Johnson has support even outside of the Progressive parts of the North Side.

I know not all of the votes have been counted yet, but just look at that >50% decline in raw turnout over 40 years. Chicago’s population only decreased by ~10% between the 1980 and 2020 censuses.

I mean yeah the salience of local politics has decreased with nationalization. But another thing that shouldn't be discounted - arguably it is the most imperative factor - is that increased polarization correlates almost perfectly with an increase in 'cheap' political action. Cheap here is defined by political behavior papers as something that requires limited action when compared to say a protest, petition, or membership in an activist organization, and voting is the classic example. In such a racially polarized and tense election, of course turnout would surge.

[John Dule]

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fascinating how both local elections and international issues (eg see the French pension reform thread) reveal that a whole lot of red avatars are basically right-wingers who just happen to find the GOP a little too much for their taste.

Also, when a bunch of red avatars celebrate black voters as 'the most loyal Democratic voters' before throwing a tantrum when the preferred candidate of said voters wins

[Badger]

Hopefully the City Council handcuffs his agenda. There are still enough old-school Daley/Rahm Dems that I think it can be done.

A good amount of his agenda is either going to be DOA or significantly neutered by city council. I hope he's the kind of leader that's willing to compromise and negotiate, rather than Lightfoot 2.0, choosing to be combative and let the perfect be the enemy of the good. His stewardship will neither be as transformational as "The Movement" hopes, nor as dire as his detractors are currently worried it will be. I'm reserving judgment until I see his leadership style.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxM0nUFbYJw

https://twitter.com/megan_e_riley/status/1630761789746212865

[Benjamin Frank]

Not to make this about me, and despite what I've said in this thread... People call me strange, but other than my interest in U. S politics here,  I'm a white middle class suburban professional establishment liberal and I would have voted for Paul Vallas. I'm a cliche.

To broaden this out if anybody is interested: to what degree are people's politics determined by their cultural geography? Maybe everything else is just rationalization.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxM0nUFbYJw

https://twitter.com/megan_e_riley/status/1630761789746212865

RIP to the Biggest Dick in Chicago. Fly high girlboss.

Not to make this about me, and despite what I've said in this thread... People call me strange, but other than my interest in U. S politics here,  I'm a white middle class suburban professional establishment liberal and I would have voted for Paul Vallas. I'm a cliche.

To broaden this out if anybody is interested: to what degree are people's politics determined by their cultural geography? Maybe everything else is just rationalization.

I'm a white suburban middle-class professional, but I also believe all people are equal and deserve to live decent lives, and therefore support left-wingers like Johnson and not neoliberal ghouls like Vallas. It's really not that hard if you try.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxM0nUFbYJw

https://twitter.com/megan_e_riley/status/1630761789746212865

RIP to the Biggest Dick in Chicago. Fly high girlboss.

Not to make this about me, and despite what I've said in this thread... People call me strange, but other than my interest in U. S politics here,  I'm a white middle class suburban professional establishment liberal and I would have voted for Paul Vallas. I'm a cliche.

To broaden this out if anybody is interested: to what degree are people's politics determined by their cultural geography? Maybe everything else is just rationalization.

I'm a white suburban middle-class professional, but I also believe all people are equal and deserve to live decent lives, and therefore support left-wingers like Johnson and not neoliberal ghouls like Vallas. It's really not that hard if you try.

Very few things are 100% and I'm sure you can use words that actually have meaning unlike 'neoliberal' if you try.

'Neoliberal' is nothing more than the 'progressive' equivalent of the right wing pejoratives 'communist/socialist.'

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, yes, the old canard.

When a Republican uses "socialist" improperly I can actually correct them, because I know what the word means. Meanwhile every time neoliberalism is brought up (purposefully, by people who actually understand it) all you can do is yell "IT MEANS NOTHING" because you don't know what it means.

[Benjamin Frank]

Ah, yes, the old canard.

When a Republican uses "socialist" improperly I can actually correct them, because I know what the word means. Meanwhile every time neoliberalism is brought up (purposefully, by people who actually understand it) all you can do is yell "IT MEANS NOTHING" because you don't know what it means.

Fine, define it then please.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, yes, the old canard.

When a Republican uses "socialist" improperly I can actually correct them, because I know what the word means. Meanwhile every time neoliberalism is brought up (purposefully, by people who actually understand it) all you can do is yell "IT MEANS NOTHING" because you don't know what it means.

Fine, define it then please.

Already have. There are a couple things I'd amend or reformulate slightly, but by and large this still holds.

If that's tldr for you, I guess the one-sentence definition would be "an ideology which views market dynamics as the source of normative value, and consequently considers the state's primary role to be that of ensuring the most unfettered operation of market forces in all areas of society".

[Benjamin Frank]

Ah, yes, the old canard.

When a Republican uses "socialist" improperly I can actually correct them, because I know what the word means. Meanwhile every time neoliberalism is brought up (purposefully, by people who actually understand it) all you can do is yell "IT MEANS NOTHING" because you don't know what it means.

Fine, define it then please.

Already have. There are a couple things I'd amend or reformulate slightly, but by and large this still holds.

If that's tldr for you, I guess the one-sentence definition would be "an ideology which views market dynamics as the source of normative value, and consequently considers the state's primary role to be that of ensuring the most unfettered operation of market forces in all areas of society".

1.It wasn't too long, that's an interesting if rather narrow definition. You, or Foucault, is certainly correct that economists have sought to broaden out how much economic concepts (primarily micro economic concepts) apply to areas that aren't generally thought of as 'the market.' This is much of the foundation of both behavioral economics and game theory (though game theory is also used by many non economists.) I certainly qualify as a neo liberal under that definition in that explaining situations through an economic lens is much of what I do and much of what I taught. My high school course name was 'concepts in economics' and not  'economics' precisely because of this, although I primarily geared it to combining teaching history through an economics lens.

Of course, economic concepts are just one framework to explain an indivdiuals actions and group dynamics and it needs to be emphasized that other rational explanations can exist as well.

However, for instance, I've said here several times that as much as I dislike some of the rules here, that I agree that rules are needed because non moderated or loosely moderated boards (like on news sites) are exactly like George Akerlof described in his paper 'the Market for Lemons': the bad commenters chase away the good commenters because the good commenters recognize that it isn't worth their time to post on a board where the other comments are all partisan or otherwise extreme nonsense.

Similarly, I have read this book, and although it wasn't perfect, I've recommended it to people: The Romantic Economist: A Story of Love and Market Forces
https://www.amazon.com/Romantic-Economist-Story-Market-Forces/dp/1476730415

There is also this book that came out around the same time:
The Love Market: What You Need To Know About How We Date, Mate and Marry
https://www.amazon.ca/Love-Market-What-About-Marry/dp/144341056X

2.I'm not sure how Paul Vallas fits this definition of a neoliberal. To my neoliberal thinking (using the defintion you provided) he's simply a centrist mostly 'good government' capable but not perfect administrator of large government institutions who sometimes has an unfortunate habit of using (false) right wing memes when campaigning.