How would this cycle’s special elections have gone in Trump’s second term?

[Tekken_Guy]

How would the 2022 cycle of special elections have gone if Trump was still president?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it would have been roughly the same tbh. Maybe Dems hold TX-34, but most of these seats weren't really that conservative. TX-06 would have went R like how GA-06 happened in 2017. The Republican would have underperformed Wright but outperformed Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If we were to assume that all the same vacancies happen for whatever reason, ignoring the Butterfly Effect, I think Democrats would have won all the ones already did by even more plus TX-34 and all of the post-Dobbs special elections.

It's insane to fathom Trump still being President, taking the blame for gas prices and inflation (which, yes, still would happen under him!), and the Dobbs decision (which also would have still almost certainly happened) all at once! The Democratic tsunami would be inevitable and something that would make 2006 and 2018 look like 2002.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm very convinced Ds would win NE-1, NY 23 TX 34 and MN 01