Does Pat Ryan win in November

[mtvoter]

Does Pat Ryan win in November

[Nyvin]

He's running in NY-18 which is about Biden+8 rather than Biden+2, he should be fine unless it turns out to be a red wave election after all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hes not running in NY 19 he is running in 18, yes he will win and we win WI 3 if NY had it 8 and WI 3 has it 12 with Barnes and Evers on ballot we win WI 3

Molinari wins NY 19 we don't know how good the other D is doing in NY 19

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL at the group think on this board. A month ago it would have been 5-1 NO.

BTW I voted Yes but I think it will be close, less than 5 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LOL at the group think on this board. A month ago it would have been 5-1 NO.

BTW I voted Yes but I think it will be close, less than 5 points.

I agree groupthink is something that this board has to some extent. It's to be expected, as you and I can attest to. Some time ago you and I were largely alone in predicting a Dem House majority being returned or Ds being close to doing so.
That being said, I personally would have voted Yes one month ago, and Yes now.

[Minnesota Mike]

LOL at the group think on this board. A month ago it would have been 5-1 NO.

BTW I voted Yes but I think it will be close, less than 5 points.

I agree groupthink is something that this board has to some extent. It's to be expected, as you and I can attest to. Some time ago you and I were largely alone in predicting a Dem House majority being returned or Ds being close to doing so.
That being said, I personally would have voted Yes one month ago, and Yes now.

For the record I have never predicted a Dem House majority. I have long predicted Republicans pick up enough seats to flip the chamber but that there would be no "Red Wave".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

LOL at the group think on this board. A month ago it would have been 5-1 NO.

BTW I voted Yes but I think it will be close, less than 5 points.

I agree groupthink is something that this board has to some extent. It's to be expected, as you and I can attest to. Some time ago you and I were largely alone in predicting a Dem House majority being returned or Ds being close to doing so.
That being said, I personally would have voted Yes one month ago, and Yes now.

For the record I have never predicted a Dem House majority. I have long predicted Republicans pick up enough seats to flip the chamber but that there would be no "Red Wave".

I predicted a very narrow Dem House majority back in January, and a very narrow Rep Senate majority. I have since flipped it; narrow R majority in House, narrow D majority in Senate. I was not sure how you actually predicted things would unfold, but I knew you were someone who has always been skeptical of the "R wave" narrative, not too different from me in that regard.

[Schiff for Senate]

LOL at the group think on this board. A month ago it would have been 5-1 NO.

BTW I voted Yes but I think it will be close, less than 5 points.

A month ago we (there's the groupthink for ya!) thought the special election was like Lean R, or even Likely R. Yesterday, in a smashing upset and a rare occasion of the GOP massively underperforming the polls, Ryan won. Now he'll have the incumbency advantage, for one thing. And for the record, I for one would (even if Ryan had lost this special election, or if the special election hadn't occurred yet and I thought Molinaro was favoured...can't honestly say because I didn't follow it at all and only just realised what a victory it was) still have possibly voted Yes. It's Biden+7.6.

[Schiff for Senate]

Anyway, yes, he obviously wins.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He is definitely favored now. Had he lost yesterday he might have had a slightly tougher path where it might have been tilt D at best. I'll consider it lean D now.