Predict the NY-19 special election

[Xing]

I would say Lean R, Molinaro by about 3%.

[Sir Mohamed]

Molinaro by 2.7%.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ll be an optimist b/c someone has to be  and say Ryan wins by ~2.5%.  That said, all I’m really confident about here is that whoever wins, it won’t be by more than 5% (probably by less than 5%). Tilt R and Tilt D are both reasonable ratings here, it’s a true tossup.

[Devils30]

Depends what turnout is like in Columbia, Ulster and Dutchess. A narrow GOP win could still mean NY-19 flips back with Ithaca in the November version.

[GALeftist]

Molinaro by ~2%. Honestly though I think my prediction is R favorable if anything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think it could be anywhere from Ryan+2 to Molinaro+2. I think I'm going to go with Molinaro+2 because my predictions have underestimated Democrats all year, and I'm hoping that I've been jinxing elections for the GOP.

If it is Molinaro+2 though, I think it's an acceptable enough result and might not be good enough for him when it comes to winning in November with an altered, more Democratic district.

[Brittain33]

I'm saying Ryan <2%, admittedly on hopium because the evidence is pointing to a Molinaro win which reverses some of the Dem optimism from recent elections.

[It’s so Joever]

Gonna play my role and say Molinaro+5.

[Gracile]

Molinaro +3, though this is one I'm fairly uncertain about and can see a range of outcomes.

[Utah Neolib]

Molinaro +3. Special elections are always odd.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Molinaro +2-3, but if there were any special election that would break the streak of relatively lackluster Republican performances lately, this would be it. Molinaro is a solid fit for the district's profile, so I wouldn't be shocked by a stronger showing either.

[wbrocks67]

Molinaro isn't particularly a bad candidate, but neither were the nominees in MN-01 or NE-01 either, so saying he's a solid fit for the district doesn't really do much IMO.

However, this one is a tossup that really could go either way. Given the Dems overperformances and the fact that this is a Biden/Delgado district, Ryan *should* be winning this IMO. If Molinaro wins this by anything more than like 1 or 2% I think it's a personally bad showing for Dems.

Money seems to be now at parity, but there's also the fact that national Democrats/Ryan had a major cash/spending disadvantage until the last few weeks, though it's possible that could be fine since voters may have not tuned in until recently. Total tossup

[President Johnson]

I think Molinaro narrowly wins. My guess would be by a margin of 1.5%.

[Devils30]

In my opinion, if Ryan wins it is because he wins Ulster with like 62%. Molinaro should cut Dutchess from Biden's narrow 4% win in the NY-19 portion and maybe win it outright. Ironically, Dutchess is cut out of the November NY-19 and trading this section for Ithaca could doom Molinaro in November.

A narrow Molinaro win of 0-2% will suggest Dems can still win NY-19 in the fall. What is funny is the NE-1, MN-1 patterns would suggest a Ryan win of 5% but things aren't that simple. Not sure what the college degree % is in the NY-19 Dutchess portion, Dems have gotten leftward swings in anything over 30% and big swings if over 40%. Quirky local factors matter a lot in these specials, look at Mower county MN in MN-1.

[wbrocks67]

It's pretty funny how public pollsters have totally shied away from even attempting this race, or NY-23.

[kwabbit]

Molinaro isn't particularly a bad candidate, but neither were the nominees in MN-01 or NE-01 either, so saying he's a solid fit for the district doesn't really do much IMO.

However, this one is a tossup that really could go either way. Given the Dems overperformances and the fact that this is a Biden/Delgado district, Ryan *should* be winning this IMO. If Molinaro wins this by anything more than like 1 or 2% I think it's a personally bad showing for Dems.

Money seems to be now at parity, but there's also the fact that national Democrats/Ryan had a major cash/spending disadvantage until the last few weeks, though it's possible that could be fine since voters may have not tuned in until recently. Total tossup

For what it's worth, Molinaro will have won a majority of the electorate in 2018 already. That doesn't mean he'll win all of them again, but he has an established brand unusual for a sleepy special election.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Molinaro +5.

[windjammer]

Ryan by 2-5%

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think it could be anywhere from Ryan+2 to Molinaro+2. I think I'm going to go with Molinaro+2 because my predictions have underestimated Democrats all year, and I'm hoping that I've been jinxing elections for the GOP.

If it is Molinaro+2 though, I think it's an acceptable enough result and might not be good enough for him when it comes to winning in November with an altered, more Democratic district.

Hey now, I called it in a way!

I'll make sure to keep jinxing elections this year. Republicans are going to win everything! I think this may also be why Forumlurker does the same. I think our collective negative energy is affecting the universe.

[Xing]

I’ll be an optimist b/c someone has to be  and say Ryan wins by ~2.5%.  That said, all I’m really confident about here is that whoever wins, it won’t be by more than 5% (probably by less than 5%). Tilt R and Tilt D are both reasonable ratings here, it’s a true tossup.

Ryan by 2-5%

We have ourselves some winners! I wonder what a certain poster or two would say about the “Atlas liberal elitist hive mind living in a bubble” significantly underestimating Ryan.

[Brittain33]

I did believe that Ryan would win based on the past specials, even though the other available evidence pointed at Molinaro and I adjusted my beliefs to accommodate that. That said, I never imagined he would win by a small comfortable margin. I did believe it would be less than 2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This proves the polls are flawed that WI 3 shows D's down by 12 and NY 19 we were down by 8 so we can overcome that with Barnes and Evers

[Tartarus Sauce]

Molinaro +2-3, but if there were any special election that would break the streak of relatively lackluster Republican performances lately, this would be it. Molinaro is a solid fit for the district's profile, so I wouldn't be shocked by a stronger showing either.

Republicans have no excuse for having blown this one. Not a good sign for them at all. 

[Brittain33]

This proves the polls are flawed that WI 3 shows D's down by 12 and NY 19 we were down by 8 so we can overcome that with Barnes and Evers

Naw, we’re still losing WI-3.

[wbrocks67]

Well most of this thread aged like milk